Testing novel methods for short-term forecasting of European glass eel recruitment
International audience Recruitment forecasting constitutes a major issue in population dynamics, especially in stock assessments. In many cases, high recruitment stochasticity thwarts the determination of a stock-recruitment (SR) relationship. When no SR relationship is available, recruitments can b...
Published in: | Fisheries Research |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2024
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-04402206 https://hal.science/hal-04402206/document https://hal.science/hal-04402206/file/benezech.pdf https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2023.106915 |
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Portail HAL OFB (Office français de la biodiversité) |
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ftofficefbiodive |
language |
English |
topic |
European eel Recruitment forecasting Bayesian stock assessment Random walk Multicriteria [SDV.SA.STP]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Sciences and technics of fishery [STAT.AP]Statistics [stat]/Applications [stat.AP] |
spellingShingle |
European eel Recruitment forecasting Bayesian stock assessment Random walk Multicriteria [SDV.SA.STP]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Sciences and technics of fishery [STAT.AP]Statistics [stat]/Applications [stat.AP] Bénézech, Mathilde Drouineau, Hilaire Acou, Anthony Bardonnet, Agnes Boulenger, Clarisse Lambert, Patrick Prévost, Etienne Beaulaton, Laurent Testing novel methods for short-term forecasting of European glass eel recruitment |
topic_facet |
European eel Recruitment forecasting Bayesian stock assessment Random walk Multicriteria [SDV.SA.STP]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Sciences and technics of fishery [STAT.AP]Statistics [stat]/Applications [stat.AP] |
description |
International audience Recruitment forecasting constitutes a major issue in population dynamics, especially in stock assessments. In many cases, high recruitment stochasticity thwarts the determination of a stock-recruitment (SR) relationship. When no SR relationship is available, recruitments can be projected from past trends using methods such as the geometric means of the past recruitments. This approach implicitly assumes stability in upcoming years and might not be appropriate in the case of regime shifts. Recruitment forecasting is particularly critical when predicting fishing opportunities for recruitment fisheries. The fishery of glass European eels (Anguilla anguilla) is an example of a recruitment fishery. The French glass eel fishery, which is currently guided by two models to forecast upcoming recruitments and derive fishing opportunities, has failed to achieve management targets. This study develops new models that forecast glass eel recruitments without assumptions about the SR relationship, and with flexible assumptions about future recruitment evolutions. Tests based on multiple criteria found the best performance in a random slope model, which provides flexibility to track recruitment dynamics while balancing the interests of fisheries, management and conservation. This model has wide potential for trend projections in natural resource management, economics and other fields. |
author2 |
Ecosystèmes aquatiques et changements globaux (UR EABX) Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Pôle OFB-INRAE-Institut Agro-UPPA pour la gestion des migrateurs amphihalins dans leur environnement (MIAME) Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour (UPPA)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Office français de la biodiversité (OFB)-Institut Agro Rennes Angers Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro) Patrimoine naturel (PatriNat) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction surveillance, évaluation,données (OFB - DSUED) Office français de la biodiversité (OFB)-Office français de la biodiversité (OFB) Ecologie comportementale (EC) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Rennes (UR)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL) Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Université de Bourgogne (UB)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université de Montpellier (UM) Unité Expérimentale d'Ecologie et d'Ecotoxicologie Aquatique - U3E (Rennes, France) (U3E ) Ecologie Comportementale et Biologie des Populations de Poissons (ECOBIOP) Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour (UPPA)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Service conservation et gestion durable des espèces exploitées (OFB SEEX) Direction de la recherche et de l’appui scientifique (OFB - DRAS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bénézech, Mathilde Drouineau, Hilaire Acou, Anthony Bardonnet, Agnes Boulenger, Clarisse Lambert, Patrick Prévost, Etienne Beaulaton, Laurent |
author_facet |
Bénézech, Mathilde Drouineau, Hilaire Acou, Anthony Bardonnet, Agnes Boulenger, Clarisse Lambert, Patrick Prévost, Etienne Beaulaton, Laurent |
author_sort |
Bénézech, Mathilde |
title |
Testing novel methods for short-term forecasting of European glass eel recruitment |
title_short |
Testing novel methods for short-term forecasting of European glass eel recruitment |
title_full |
Testing novel methods for short-term forecasting of European glass eel recruitment |
title_fullStr |
Testing novel methods for short-term forecasting of European glass eel recruitment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Testing novel methods for short-term forecasting of European glass eel recruitment |
title_sort |
testing novel methods for short-term forecasting of european glass eel recruitment |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-04402206 https://hal.science/hal-04402206/document https://hal.science/hal-04402206/file/benezech.pdf https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2023.106915 |
genre |
Anguilla anguilla |
genre_facet |
Anguilla anguilla |
op_source |
ISSN: 0165-7836 EISSN: 1872-6763 Fisheries Research https://hal.science/hal-04402206 Fisheries Research, 2024, 271, pp.106915. ⟨10.1016/j.fishres.2023.106915⟩ https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165783623003089#ab0015 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.fishres.2023.106915 hal-04402206 https://hal.science/hal-04402206 https://hal.science/hal-04402206/document https://hal.science/hal-04402206/file/benezech.pdf doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2023.106915 WOS: 001141565100001 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2023.106915 |
container_title |
Fisheries Research |
container_volume |
271 |
container_start_page |
106915 |
_version_ |
1802640891021623296 |
spelling |
ftofficefbiodive:oai:HAL:hal-04402206v1 2024-06-23T07:45:33+00:00 Testing novel methods for short-term forecasting of European glass eel recruitment Bénézech, Mathilde Drouineau, Hilaire Acou, Anthony Bardonnet, Agnes Boulenger, Clarisse Lambert, Patrick Prévost, Etienne Beaulaton, Laurent Ecosystèmes aquatiques et changements globaux (UR EABX) Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Pôle OFB-INRAE-Institut Agro-UPPA pour la gestion des migrateurs amphihalins dans leur environnement (MIAME) Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour (UPPA)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Office français de la biodiversité (OFB)-Institut Agro Rennes Angers Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro) Patrimoine naturel (PatriNat) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction surveillance, évaluation,données (OFB - DSUED) Office français de la biodiversité (OFB)-Office français de la biodiversité (OFB) Ecologie comportementale (EC) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Rennes (UR)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL) Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Université de Bourgogne (UB)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université de Montpellier (UM) Unité Expérimentale d'Ecologie et d'Ecotoxicologie Aquatique - U3E (Rennes, France) (U3E ) Ecologie Comportementale et Biologie des Populations de Poissons (ECOBIOP) Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour (UPPA)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Service conservation et gestion durable des espèces exploitées (OFB SEEX) Direction de la recherche et de l’appui scientifique (OFB - DRAS) 2024-03 https://hal.science/hal-04402206 https://hal.science/hal-04402206/document https://hal.science/hal-04402206/file/benezech.pdf https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2023.106915 en eng HAL CCSD Elsevier info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.fishres.2023.106915 hal-04402206 https://hal.science/hal-04402206 https://hal.science/hal-04402206/document https://hal.science/hal-04402206/file/benezech.pdf doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2023.106915 WOS: 001141565100001 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0165-7836 EISSN: 1872-6763 Fisheries Research https://hal.science/hal-04402206 Fisheries Research, 2024, 271, pp.106915. ⟨10.1016/j.fishres.2023.106915⟩ https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165783623003089#ab0015 European eel Recruitment forecasting Bayesian stock assessment Random walk Multicriteria [SDV.SA.STP]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Sciences and technics of fishery [STAT.AP]Statistics [stat]/Applications [stat.AP] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2024 ftofficefbiodive https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2023.106915 2024-06-05T23:30:57Z International audience Recruitment forecasting constitutes a major issue in population dynamics, especially in stock assessments. In many cases, high recruitment stochasticity thwarts the determination of a stock-recruitment (SR) relationship. When no SR relationship is available, recruitments can be projected from past trends using methods such as the geometric means of the past recruitments. This approach implicitly assumes stability in upcoming years and might not be appropriate in the case of regime shifts. Recruitment forecasting is particularly critical when predicting fishing opportunities for recruitment fisheries. The fishery of glass European eels (Anguilla anguilla) is an example of a recruitment fishery. The French glass eel fishery, which is currently guided by two models to forecast upcoming recruitments and derive fishing opportunities, has failed to achieve management targets. This study develops new models that forecast glass eel recruitments without assumptions about the SR relationship, and with flexible assumptions about future recruitment evolutions. Tests based on multiple criteria found the best performance in a random slope model, which provides flexibility to track recruitment dynamics while balancing the interests of fisheries, management and conservation. This model has wide potential for trend projections in natural resource management, economics and other fields. Article in Journal/Newspaper Anguilla anguilla Portail HAL OFB (Office français de la biodiversité) Fisheries Research 271 106915 |