Projecting Marine-Estuarine Opportunist fish distributions in the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean, under different climate scenarios
International audience Marine-estuarine opportunist (MEO) species are fish that occur in the continental shelf and use estuaries and/or shallow coastal areas as nurseries. These commercially important resources are facing significant environmental modifications caused by direct and/or indirect anthr...
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ftofficefbiodive:oai:HAL:hal-04132984v1 2023-07-16T04:00:04+02:00 Projecting Marine-Estuarine Opportunist fish distributions in the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean, under different climate scenarios Janc, Anaïs Dambrine, Chloé Lambert, Patrick Lassalle, Géraldine Lepage, Mario Lobry, Jérémy Pierre, Maud Kristiansen, Trond Butenschön, Momme Cabral, Henrique Pôle OFB-INRAE- Agrocampus Ouest-UPPA pour la gestion des migrateurs amphihalins dans leur environnement AGROCAMPUS OUEST-Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour (UPPA)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Office français de la biodiversité (OFB) Ecosystèmes aquatiques et changements globaux (UR EABX) Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA) Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo Sui Cambiamenti Climatici European Project: 869300,FutureMARES San Sebastian, Spain 2022-09-05 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04132984 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04132984/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04132984/file/ECSA59_JANC%20et%20al_CABRAL.pdf en eng HAL CCSD info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//869300/EU/Climate Change and Future Marine Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity project funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme/FutureMARES hal-04132984 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04132984 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04132984/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04132984/file/ECSA59_JANC%20et%20al_CABRAL.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ECSA 59 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04132984 ECSA 59, Sep 2022, San Sebastian, Spain https://www.estuarinecoastalconference.com/ Marine-estuarine opportunist fish distribution shifts centroids and margins hierarchical filtering climate change Northeast Atlantic [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject Conference papers 2022 ftofficefbiodive 2023-06-25T19:19:09Z International audience Marine-estuarine opportunist (MEO) species are fish that occur in the continental shelf and use estuaries and/or shallow coastal areas as nurseries. These commercially important resources are facing significant environmental modifications caused by direct and/or indirect anthropogenic climate change effects. In this study, we investigated the directionality and the magnitude of the distribution shifts (i.e., range size, gravity centroids, and margins) in marine environment suitability for six main MEO fish species within the Northeast Atlantic expected for the end of the 21st century. In the framework of this study, we have distinguished ‘sub-boreal’ from ‘sub-tropical’ species. The ‘hierarchical filters’ concept was adopted for modelling the potential species distributions and combined the predictions of i) a bioclimatic model with ii) a habitat model. The bioclimatic model is based on large-scale and time-variant variables while variables of the habitat model are fine-grained and time-invariant. Two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios are tested: an intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and a pessimistic one (SSP5-8.5). We applied this framework using international databases of biodiversity occurrences, ensemble forecasting producing consensual predictions, and innovative indices of distribution shifts. A visible north-westward shift was predicted for all six species in our study area. However, the northward expansion was greater for ‘sub-tropical’ than for ‘sub-boreal’ species due to faster gravity centroid displacement shifts and faster margins shifts. These range shifts may lead to major ecological and socio-economic impacts (e.g., changes in recruitment to estuarine and coastal nurseries, as well as changes in spawning grounds) that may alter populations’ connectivity. Conference Object Northeast Atlantic Unknown |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Unknown |
op_collection_id |
ftofficefbiodive |
language |
English |
topic |
Marine-estuarine opportunist fish distribution shifts centroids and margins hierarchical filtering climate change Northeast Atlantic [SDE]Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Marine-estuarine opportunist fish distribution shifts centroids and margins hierarchical filtering climate change Northeast Atlantic [SDE]Environmental Sciences Janc, Anaïs Dambrine, Chloé Lambert, Patrick Lassalle, Géraldine Lepage, Mario Lobry, Jérémy Pierre, Maud Kristiansen, Trond Butenschön, Momme Cabral, Henrique Projecting Marine-Estuarine Opportunist fish distributions in the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean, under different climate scenarios |
topic_facet |
Marine-estuarine opportunist fish distribution shifts centroids and margins hierarchical filtering climate change Northeast Atlantic [SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience Marine-estuarine opportunist (MEO) species are fish that occur in the continental shelf and use estuaries and/or shallow coastal areas as nurseries. These commercially important resources are facing significant environmental modifications caused by direct and/or indirect anthropogenic climate change effects. In this study, we investigated the directionality and the magnitude of the distribution shifts (i.e., range size, gravity centroids, and margins) in marine environment suitability for six main MEO fish species within the Northeast Atlantic expected for the end of the 21st century. In the framework of this study, we have distinguished ‘sub-boreal’ from ‘sub-tropical’ species. The ‘hierarchical filters’ concept was adopted for modelling the potential species distributions and combined the predictions of i) a bioclimatic model with ii) a habitat model. The bioclimatic model is based on large-scale and time-variant variables while variables of the habitat model are fine-grained and time-invariant. Two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios are tested: an intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and a pessimistic one (SSP5-8.5). We applied this framework using international databases of biodiversity occurrences, ensemble forecasting producing consensual predictions, and innovative indices of distribution shifts. A visible north-westward shift was predicted for all six species in our study area. However, the northward expansion was greater for ‘sub-tropical’ than for ‘sub-boreal’ species due to faster gravity centroid displacement shifts and faster margins shifts. These range shifts may lead to major ecological and socio-economic impacts (e.g., changes in recruitment to estuarine and coastal nurseries, as well as changes in spawning grounds) that may alter populations’ connectivity. |
author2 |
Pôle OFB-INRAE- Agrocampus Ouest-UPPA pour la gestion des migrateurs amphihalins dans leur environnement AGROCAMPUS OUEST-Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour (UPPA)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Office français de la biodiversité (OFB) Ecosystèmes aquatiques et changements globaux (UR EABX) Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA) Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo Sui Cambiamenti Climatici European Project: 869300,FutureMARES |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Janc, Anaïs Dambrine, Chloé Lambert, Patrick Lassalle, Géraldine Lepage, Mario Lobry, Jérémy Pierre, Maud Kristiansen, Trond Butenschön, Momme Cabral, Henrique |
author_facet |
Janc, Anaïs Dambrine, Chloé Lambert, Patrick Lassalle, Géraldine Lepage, Mario Lobry, Jérémy Pierre, Maud Kristiansen, Trond Butenschön, Momme Cabral, Henrique |
author_sort |
Janc, Anaïs |
title |
Projecting Marine-Estuarine Opportunist fish distributions in the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean, under different climate scenarios |
title_short |
Projecting Marine-Estuarine Opportunist fish distributions in the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean, under different climate scenarios |
title_full |
Projecting Marine-Estuarine Opportunist fish distributions in the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean, under different climate scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Projecting Marine-Estuarine Opportunist fish distributions in the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean, under different climate scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projecting Marine-Estuarine Opportunist fish distributions in the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean, under different climate scenarios |
title_sort |
projecting marine-estuarine opportunist fish distributions in the northeastern atlantic ocean, under different climate scenarios |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04132984 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04132984/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04132984/file/ECSA59_JANC%20et%20al_CABRAL.pdf |
op_coverage |
San Sebastian, Spain |
genre |
Northeast Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Northeast Atlantic |
op_source |
ECSA 59 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04132984 ECSA 59, Sep 2022, San Sebastian, Spain https://www.estuarinecoastalconference.com/ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//869300/EU/Climate Change and Future Marine Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity project funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme/FutureMARES hal-04132984 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04132984 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04132984/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04132984/file/ECSA59_JANC%20et%20al_CABRAL.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1771548569138888704 |