A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents
The recent overall Northern Hemisphere warming was accompanied by several severe northern continental winters, as for example, extremely cold winter 2005/2006 in Europe and northern Asia. Here we show that anomalous decrease of wintertime sea ice concentration in the Barents-Kara (B-K) Seas could br...
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Online Access: | https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/8738/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/8738/1/2009JD013568-pip.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013568 |
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:8738 2023-05-15T15:11:33+02:00 A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents Petoukhov, V. Semenov, Vladimir 2010 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/8738/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/8738/1/2009JD013568-pip.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013568 en eng AGU (American Geophysical Union) https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/8738/1/2009JD013568-pip.pdf Petoukhov, V. and Semenov, V. (2010) A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. Open Access Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 115 . D21111. DOI 10.1029/2009JD013568 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013568>. doi:10.1029/2009JD013568 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Article PeerReviewed 2010 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013568 2023-04-07T14:57:00Z The recent overall Northern Hemisphere warming was accompanied by several severe northern continental winters, as for example, extremely cold winter 2005/2006 in Europe and northern Asia. Here we show that anomalous decrease of wintertime sea ice concentration in the Barents-Kara (B-K) Seas could bring about extreme cold events like winter 2005/2006. Our simulations with the ECHAM5 general circulation model demonstrate that lower-troposphere heating over the B-K Seas in the Eastern Arctic caused by the sea ice reduction may result in strong anti-cyclonic anomaly over the Polar Ocean and anomalous easterly advection over northern continents. This causes a continental-scale winter cooling reaching -1.5°C, with more than three times increased probability of cold winter extremes over large areas including Europe. Our results imply that several recent severe winters do not conflict the global warming picture but rather supplement it, being in qualitative agreement with the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation realignment. Furthermore, our results suggest that high-latitude atmospheric circulation response to the B-K sea ice decrease is highly nonlinear and characterized by transition from anomalous cyclonic circulation to anticyclonic one and then again back to cyclonic type of circulation as the B-K sea ice concentration gradually reduces from 100% to ice free conditions. We present a conceptual model which may explain the nonlinear local atmospheric response in the B-K Seas region by counter play between convection over the surface heat source and baroclinic effect due to modified temperature gradients in the vicinity of the heating area. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Global warming Kara Sea Sea ice OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Arctic Kara Sea Journal of Geophysical Research 115 D21 |
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Open Polar |
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OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
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ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
The recent overall Northern Hemisphere warming was accompanied by several severe northern continental winters, as for example, extremely cold winter 2005/2006 in Europe and northern Asia. Here we show that anomalous decrease of wintertime sea ice concentration in the Barents-Kara (B-K) Seas could bring about extreme cold events like winter 2005/2006. Our simulations with the ECHAM5 general circulation model demonstrate that lower-troposphere heating over the B-K Seas in the Eastern Arctic caused by the sea ice reduction may result in strong anti-cyclonic anomaly over the Polar Ocean and anomalous easterly advection over northern continents. This causes a continental-scale winter cooling reaching -1.5°C, with more than three times increased probability of cold winter extremes over large areas including Europe. Our results imply that several recent severe winters do not conflict the global warming picture but rather supplement it, being in qualitative agreement with the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation realignment. Furthermore, our results suggest that high-latitude atmospheric circulation response to the B-K sea ice decrease is highly nonlinear and characterized by transition from anomalous cyclonic circulation to anticyclonic one and then again back to cyclonic type of circulation as the B-K sea ice concentration gradually reduces from 100% to ice free conditions. We present a conceptual model which may explain the nonlinear local atmospheric response in the B-K Seas region by counter play between convection over the surface heat source and baroclinic effect due to modified temperature gradients in the vicinity of the heating area. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Petoukhov, V. Semenov, Vladimir |
spellingShingle |
Petoukhov, V. Semenov, Vladimir A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents |
author_facet |
Petoukhov, V. Semenov, Vladimir |
author_sort |
Petoukhov, V. |
title |
A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents |
title_short |
A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents |
title_full |
A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents |
title_fullStr |
A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents |
title_full_unstemmed |
A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents |
title_sort |
link between reduced barents-kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents |
publisher |
AGU (American Geophysical Union) |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/8738/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/8738/1/2009JD013568-pip.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013568 |
geographic |
Arctic Kara Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Kara Sea |
genre |
Arctic Global warming Kara Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Global warming Kara Sea Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/8738/1/2009JD013568-pip.pdf Petoukhov, V. and Semenov, V. (2010) A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. Open Access Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 115 . D21111. DOI 10.1029/2009JD013568 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013568>. doi:10.1029/2009JD013568 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013568 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research |
container_volume |
115 |
container_issue |
D21 |
_version_ |
1766342388093026304 |