Prospects for decadal prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
For certain, but realizable, states of the thermohaline and wind driven circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean, we demonstrate the possibility of making statements regarding the likely range of values to be taken by the annual average of the NAO-index on time scales out to a decade. Given that the...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Language: | English |
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AGU (American Geophysical Union)
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:736 2023-05-15T17:26:12+02:00 Prospects for decadal prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Eden, Carsten Greatbatch, R. J. Lu, J. 2002 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/736/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/736/1/Eden_et_al-2002-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014069 en eng AGU (American Geophysical Union) https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/736/1/Eden_et_al-2002-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf Eden, C., Greatbatch, R. J. and Lu, J. (2002) Prospects for decadal prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Open Access Geophysical Research Letters, 29 (10). p. 1466. DOI 10.1029/2001GL014069 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014069>. doi:10.1029/2001GL014069 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Article PeerReviewed 2002 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014069 2023-04-07T14:42:42Z For certain, but realizable, states of the thermohaline and wind driven circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean, we demonstrate the possibility of making statements regarding the likely range of values to be taken by the annual average of the NAO-index on time scales out to a decade. Given that the North Atlantic is currently in such a predictable state, a simple surrogate model yields a prediction that the NAO index is more likely to be positive than negative for the next couple of years, followed by several years in which the NAO index is more likely to be negative. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Geophysical Research Letters 29 10 104-1 104-4 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
op_collection_id |
ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
For certain, but realizable, states of the thermohaline and wind driven circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean, we demonstrate the possibility of making statements regarding the likely range of values to be taken by the annual average of the NAO-index on time scales out to a decade. Given that the North Atlantic is currently in such a predictable state, a simple surrogate model yields a prediction that the NAO index is more likely to be positive than negative for the next couple of years, followed by several years in which the NAO index is more likely to be negative. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Eden, Carsten Greatbatch, R. J. Lu, J. |
spellingShingle |
Eden, Carsten Greatbatch, R. J. Lu, J. Prospects for decadal prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) |
author_facet |
Eden, Carsten Greatbatch, R. J. Lu, J. |
author_sort |
Eden, Carsten |
title |
Prospects for decadal prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) |
title_short |
Prospects for decadal prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) |
title_full |
Prospects for decadal prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) |
title_fullStr |
Prospects for decadal prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Prospects for decadal prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) |
title_sort |
prospects for decadal prediction of the north atlantic oscillation (nao) |
publisher |
AGU (American Geophysical Union) |
publishDate |
2002 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/736/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/736/1/Eden_et_al-2002-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014069 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/736/1/Eden_et_al-2002-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf Eden, C., Greatbatch, R. J. and Lu, J. (2002) Prospects for decadal prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Open Access Geophysical Research Letters, 29 (10). p. 1466. DOI 10.1029/2001GL014069 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014069>. doi:10.1029/2001GL014069 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014069 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
29 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
104-1 |
op_container_end_page |
104-4 |
_version_ |
1766117791160598528 |