Assessment of the 11-year solar cycle signals in the middle atmosphere in multiple-model ensemble simulations
To better understand possible reasons for the diverse modeling results and large discrepancies of the detected solar fingerprints, we took one step back and assessed the "initial" solar signals in the middle atmosphere based on large ensemble simulations with multiple climate models — FOCI...
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:60357 2024-06-23T07:56:19+00:00 Assessment of the 11-year solar cycle signals in the middle atmosphere in multiple-model ensemble simulations Huo, Wenjuan Spiegl, Tobias Wahl, Sebastian Matthes, Katja Langematz, Ulrike Pohlmann, Holger Kröger, Jürgen 2024-05-29 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/60357/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/60357/1/egusphere-2024-1288.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-1288/ https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1288 en eng Copernicus Publications (EGU) https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/60357/1/egusphere-2024-1288.pdf Huo, W. , Spiegl, T., Wahl, S. , Matthes, K. , Langematz, U., Pohlmann, H. and Kröger, J. (Submitted) Assessment of the 11-year solar cycle signals in the middle atmosphere in multiple-model ensemble simulations. Open Access EGUsphere . DOI 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1288 <https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1288>. doi:10.5194/egusphere-2024-1288 cc_by_4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Article PeerReviewed info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2024 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1288 2024-06-04T14:22:41Z To better understand possible reasons for the diverse modeling results and large discrepancies of the detected solar fingerprints, we took one step back and assessed the "initial" solar signals in the middle atmosphere based on large ensemble simulations with multiple climate models — FOCI, EMAC, and MPI-ESM-HR. Consistent with previous work, we find that the 11-year solar cycle signals in the short wave heating rate (SWHR) and ozone anomalies are robust and statistically significant in all three models. These "initial" solar cycle signals in SWHR, ozone, and temperature anomalies are sensitive to the strength of the solar forcing. Correlation coefficients of the solar cycle with the SWHR, ozone, and temperature anomalies linearly increase along with the enhancement of the solar cycle amplitude, and this reliance becomes more complex when the solar cycle amplitude exceeds a certain threshold. In addition, the cold bias in the tropical stratopause of EMAC dampens the subsequent results of the "initial" solar signal. The warm pole bias in MPI-ESM-HR leads to a weak polar night jet (PNJ), which may limit the top-down propagation of the initial solar signal. Although FOCI simulated a so-called top-down response as revealed in previous studies in a period with large solar cycle amplitudes, its warm bias in the tropical upper stratosphere results in a positive bias in PNJ and can lead to a "reversed" response in some extreme cases. We suggest a careful interpretation of the single model result and further re-examination of the solar signal based on more climate models. Article in Journal/Newspaper polar night OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
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Open Polar |
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OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
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ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
To better understand possible reasons for the diverse modeling results and large discrepancies of the detected solar fingerprints, we took one step back and assessed the "initial" solar signals in the middle atmosphere based on large ensemble simulations with multiple climate models — FOCI, EMAC, and MPI-ESM-HR. Consistent with previous work, we find that the 11-year solar cycle signals in the short wave heating rate (SWHR) and ozone anomalies are robust and statistically significant in all three models. These "initial" solar cycle signals in SWHR, ozone, and temperature anomalies are sensitive to the strength of the solar forcing. Correlation coefficients of the solar cycle with the SWHR, ozone, and temperature anomalies linearly increase along with the enhancement of the solar cycle amplitude, and this reliance becomes more complex when the solar cycle amplitude exceeds a certain threshold. In addition, the cold bias in the tropical stratopause of EMAC dampens the subsequent results of the "initial" solar signal. The warm pole bias in MPI-ESM-HR leads to a weak polar night jet (PNJ), which may limit the top-down propagation of the initial solar signal. Although FOCI simulated a so-called top-down response as revealed in previous studies in a period with large solar cycle amplitudes, its warm bias in the tropical upper stratosphere results in a positive bias in PNJ and can lead to a "reversed" response in some extreme cases. We suggest a careful interpretation of the single model result and further re-examination of the solar signal based on more climate models. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Huo, Wenjuan Spiegl, Tobias Wahl, Sebastian Matthes, Katja Langematz, Ulrike Pohlmann, Holger Kröger, Jürgen |
spellingShingle |
Huo, Wenjuan Spiegl, Tobias Wahl, Sebastian Matthes, Katja Langematz, Ulrike Pohlmann, Holger Kröger, Jürgen Assessment of the 11-year solar cycle signals in the middle atmosphere in multiple-model ensemble simulations |
author_facet |
Huo, Wenjuan Spiegl, Tobias Wahl, Sebastian Matthes, Katja Langematz, Ulrike Pohlmann, Holger Kröger, Jürgen |
author_sort |
Huo, Wenjuan |
title |
Assessment of the 11-year solar cycle signals in the middle atmosphere in multiple-model ensemble simulations |
title_short |
Assessment of the 11-year solar cycle signals in the middle atmosphere in multiple-model ensemble simulations |
title_full |
Assessment of the 11-year solar cycle signals in the middle atmosphere in multiple-model ensemble simulations |
title_fullStr |
Assessment of the 11-year solar cycle signals in the middle atmosphere in multiple-model ensemble simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessment of the 11-year solar cycle signals in the middle atmosphere in multiple-model ensemble simulations |
title_sort |
assessment of the 11-year solar cycle signals in the middle atmosphere in multiple-model ensemble simulations |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications (EGU) |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/60357/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/60357/1/egusphere-2024-1288.pdf https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-1288/ https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1288 |
genre |
polar night |
genre_facet |
polar night |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/60357/1/egusphere-2024-1288.pdf Huo, W. , Spiegl, T., Wahl, S. , Matthes, K. , Langematz, U., Pohlmann, H. and Kröger, J. (Submitted) Assessment of the 11-year solar cycle signals in the middle atmosphere in multiple-model ensemble simulations. Open Access EGUsphere . DOI 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1288 <https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1288>. doi:10.5194/egusphere-2024-1288 |
op_rights |
cc_by_4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1288 |
_version_ |
1802649335031136256 |