Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice
Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global...
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Online Access: | https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/60313/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/60313/1/s41467-020-18934-3.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 |
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:60313 2024-06-23T07:45:06+00:00 Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice Wunderling, Nico Willeit, Matteo Donges, Jonathan F. Winkelmann, Ricarda 2020-10-27 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/60313/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/60313/1/s41467-020-18934-3.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 en eng Nature Research https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/60313/1/s41467-020-18934-3.pdf Wunderling, N., Willeit, M., Donges, J. F. and Winkelmann, R. (2020) Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice. Open Access Nature Communications, 11 (1). Art.Nr. 5177 (2020). DOI 10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3>. doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 cc_by_4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Article PeerReviewed 2020 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 2024-06-04T14:22:41Z Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 °C (interquartile range: 0.39−0.46 °C) at a CO 2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Antarctic Arctic Greenland West Antarctic Ice Sheet Nature Communications 11 1 |
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Open Polar |
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OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
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ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 °C (interquartile range: 0.39−0.46 °C) at a CO 2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wunderling, Nico Willeit, Matteo Donges, Jonathan F. Winkelmann, Ricarda |
spellingShingle |
Wunderling, Nico Willeit, Matteo Donges, Jonathan F. Winkelmann, Ricarda Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
author_facet |
Wunderling, Nico Willeit, Matteo Donges, Jonathan F. Winkelmann, Ricarda |
author_sort |
Wunderling, Nico |
title |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_short |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_full |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_fullStr |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_sort |
global warming due to loss of large ice masses and arctic summer sea ice |
publisher |
Nature Research |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/60313/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/60313/1/s41467-020-18934-3.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic Greenland West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic Greenland West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/60313/1/s41467-020-18934-3.pdf Wunderling, N., Willeit, M., Donges, J. F. and Winkelmann, R. (2020) Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice. Open Access Nature Communications, 11 (1). Art.Nr. 5177 (2020). DOI 10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3>. doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 |
op_rights |
cc_by_4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1802651446704865280 |