Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks
The stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet under global warming is governed by a number of dynamic processes and interacting feedback mechanisms in the ice sheet, atmosphere and solid Earth. Here we study the long-term effects due to the interplay of the competing melt–elevation and glacial isostatic...
Published in: | Earth System Dynamics |
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Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications (EGU)
2022
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Online Access: | https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/58678/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/58678/1/esd-13-1077-2022.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/1077/2022/ https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022 |
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:58678 2024-02-11T10:04:13+01:00 Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks Zeitz, Maria Haacker, Jan M. Donges, Jonathan F. Albrecht, Torsten Winkelmann, Ricarda 2022-07-22 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/58678/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/58678/1/esd-13-1077-2022.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/1077/2022/ https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022 en eng Copernicus Publications (EGU) https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/58678/1/esd-13-1077-2022.pdf Zeitz, M., Haacker, J. M., Donges, J. F., Albrecht, T. and Winkelmann, R. (2022) Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks. Open Access Earth System Dynamics, 13 (3). pp. 1077-1096. DOI 10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022 <https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022>. doi:10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022 cc_by_4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Article PeerReviewed 2022 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022 2024-01-15T00:27:16Z The stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet under global warming is governed by a number of dynamic processes and interacting feedback mechanisms in the ice sheet, atmosphere and solid Earth. Here we study the long-term effects due to the interplay of the competing melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) feedbacks for different temperature step forcing experiments with a coupled ice-sheet and solid-Earth model. Our model results show that for warming levels above 2 ∘C, Greenland could become essentially ice-free within several millennia, mainly as a result of surface melting and acceleration of ice flow. These ice losses are mitigated, however, in some cases with strong GIA feedback even promoting an incomplete recovery of the Greenland ice volume. We further explore the full-factorial parameter space determining the relative strengths of the two feedbacks: our findings suggest distinct dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheets on the route to destabilization under global warming – from incomplete recovery, via quasi-periodic oscillations in ice volume to ice-sheet collapse. In the incomplete recovery regime, the initial ice loss due to warming is essentially reversed within 50 000 years, and the ice volume stabilizes at 61 %–93 % of the present-day volume. For certain combinations of temperature increase, atmospheric lapse rate and mantle viscosity, the interaction of the GIA feedback and the melt–elevation feedback leads to self-sustained, long-term oscillations in ice-sheet volume with oscillation periods between 74 000 and over 300 000 years and oscillation amplitudes between 15 %–70 % of present-day ice volume. This oscillatory regime reveals a possible mode of internal climatic variability in the Earth system on timescales on the order of 100 000 years that may be excited by or synchronized with orbital forcing or interact with glacial cycles and other slow modes of variability. Our findings are not meant as scenario-based near-term projections of ice losses but rather providing insight into ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Greenland Earth System Dynamics 13 3 1077 1096 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
op_collection_id |
ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
The stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet under global warming is governed by a number of dynamic processes and interacting feedback mechanisms in the ice sheet, atmosphere and solid Earth. Here we study the long-term effects due to the interplay of the competing melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) feedbacks for different temperature step forcing experiments with a coupled ice-sheet and solid-Earth model. Our model results show that for warming levels above 2 ∘C, Greenland could become essentially ice-free within several millennia, mainly as a result of surface melting and acceleration of ice flow. These ice losses are mitigated, however, in some cases with strong GIA feedback even promoting an incomplete recovery of the Greenland ice volume. We further explore the full-factorial parameter space determining the relative strengths of the two feedbacks: our findings suggest distinct dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheets on the route to destabilization under global warming – from incomplete recovery, via quasi-periodic oscillations in ice volume to ice-sheet collapse. In the incomplete recovery regime, the initial ice loss due to warming is essentially reversed within 50 000 years, and the ice volume stabilizes at 61 %–93 % of the present-day volume. For certain combinations of temperature increase, atmospheric lapse rate and mantle viscosity, the interaction of the GIA feedback and the melt–elevation feedback leads to self-sustained, long-term oscillations in ice-sheet volume with oscillation periods between 74 000 and over 300 000 years and oscillation amplitudes between 15 %–70 % of present-day ice volume. This oscillatory regime reveals a possible mode of internal climatic variability in the Earth system on timescales on the order of 100 000 years that may be excited by or synchronized with orbital forcing or interact with glacial cycles and other slow modes of variability. Our findings are not meant as scenario-based near-term projections of ice losses but rather providing insight into ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zeitz, Maria Haacker, Jan M. Donges, Jonathan F. Albrecht, Torsten Winkelmann, Ricarda |
spellingShingle |
Zeitz, Maria Haacker, Jan M. Donges, Jonathan F. Albrecht, Torsten Winkelmann, Ricarda Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks |
author_facet |
Zeitz, Maria Haacker, Jan M. Donges, Jonathan F. Albrecht, Torsten Winkelmann, Ricarda |
author_sort |
Zeitz, Maria |
title |
Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks |
title_short |
Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks |
title_full |
Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks |
title_fullStr |
Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks |
title_sort |
dynamic regimes of the greenland ice sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications (EGU) |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/58678/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/58678/1/esd-13-1077-2022.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/1077/2022/ https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/58678/1/esd-13-1077-2022.pdf Zeitz, M., Haacker, J. M., Donges, J. F., Albrecht, T. and Winkelmann, R. (2022) Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks. Open Access Earth System Dynamics, 13 (3). pp. 1077-1096. DOI 10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022 <https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022>. doi:10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022 |
op_rights |
cc_by_4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
1077 |
op_container_end_page |
1096 |
_version_ |
1790600761912066048 |