Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions
Understanding the future fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) in the context of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is crucial to predict sea level rise. With the fully coupled Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-X, we study the stability of the GIS and its transient response to CO2 emiss...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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AGU (American Geophysical Union)
2023
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:58672 2024-02-11T10:04:15+01:00 Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions Höning, Dennis Willeit, Matteo Calov, Reinhard Klemann, Volker Bagge, Meike Ganopolski, Andrey 2023-03-28 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/58672/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/58672/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters_2023_Hoening.pdf https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL101827 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101827 en eng AGU (American Geophysical Union) Wiley https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/58672/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters_2023_Hoening.pdf Höning, D., Willeit, M., Calov, R., Klemann, V., Bagge, M. and Ganopolski, A. (2023) Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions. Open Access Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (6). Art.Nr. e2022GL101827. DOI 10.1029/2022GL101827 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101827>. doi:10.1029/2022GL101827 cc_by_4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Article PeerReviewed 2023 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101827 2024-01-15T00:27:16Z Understanding the future fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) in the context of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is crucial to predict sea level rise. With the fully coupled Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-X, we study the stability of the GIS and its transient response to CO2 emissions over the next 10 Kyr. Bifurcation points exist at global temperature anomalies of 0.6 and 1.6 K relative to pre-industrial. For system states in the vicinity of the equilibrium ice volumes corresponding to these temperature anomalies, mass loss rate and sensitivity of mass loss to cumulative CO2 emission peak. These critical ice volumes are crossed for cumulative emissions of 1,000 and 2,500 GtC, which would cause long-term sea level rise by 1.8 and 6.9 m respectively. In summary, we find tipping of the GIS within the range of the temperature limits of the Paris agreement. Key Points Bifurcation points exist at global mean temperature anomalies of 0.6 and 1.6 K relative to pre-industrial Mass loss rate and sensitivity to cumulative CO2 emission peak near the equilibrium ice volumes belonging to these temperature anomalies Substantial long-term mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet for cumulative emissions larger than 1,000 Gt carbon Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Greenland Geophysical Research Letters 50 6 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
op_collection_id |
ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
Understanding the future fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) in the context of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is crucial to predict sea level rise. With the fully coupled Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-X, we study the stability of the GIS and its transient response to CO2 emissions over the next 10 Kyr. Bifurcation points exist at global temperature anomalies of 0.6 and 1.6 K relative to pre-industrial. For system states in the vicinity of the equilibrium ice volumes corresponding to these temperature anomalies, mass loss rate and sensitivity of mass loss to cumulative CO2 emission peak. These critical ice volumes are crossed for cumulative emissions of 1,000 and 2,500 GtC, which would cause long-term sea level rise by 1.8 and 6.9 m respectively. In summary, we find tipping of the GIS within the range of the temperature limits of the Paris agreement. Key Points Bifurcation points exist at global mean temperature anomalies of 0.6 and 1.6 K relative to pre-industrial Mass loss rate and sensitivity to cumulative CO2 emission peak near the equilibrium ice volumes belonging to these temperature anomalies Substantial long-term mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet for cumulative emissions larger than 1,000 Gt carbon |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Höning, Dennis Willeit, Matteo Calov, Reinhard Klemann, Volker Bagge, Meike Ganopolski, Andrey |
spellingShingle |
Höning, Dennis Willeit, Matteo Calov, Reinhard Klemann, Volker Bagge, Meike Ganopolski, Andrey Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions |
author_facet |
Höning, Dennis Willeit, Matteo Calov, Reinhard Klemann, Volker Bagge, Meike Ganopolski, Andrey |
author_sort |
Höning, Dennis |
title |
Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions |
title_short |
Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions |
title_full |
Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions |
title_fullStr |
Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions |
title_sort |
multistability and transient response of the greenland ice sheet to anthropogenic co2 emissions |
publisher |
AGU (American Geophysical Union) |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/58672/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/58672/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters_2023_Hoening.pdf https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL101827 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101827 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/58672/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters_2023_Hoening.pdf Höning, D., Willeit, M., Calov, R., Klemann, V., Bagge, M. and Ganopolski, A. (2023) Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions. Open Access Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (6). Art.Nr. e2022GL101827. DOI 10.1029/2022GL101827 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101827>. doi:10.1029/2022GL101827 |
op_rights |
cc_by_4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101827 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
50 |
container_issue |
6 |
_version_ |
1790600804393025536 |