Impact of paleoclimate on present and future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Using transient climate forcing based on simulations from the Alfred Wegener Institute Earth System Model (AWI-ESM), we simulate the evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) from the last interglacial (125 ka, kiloyear before present) to 2100 AD with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). The impac...
Published in: | PLOS ONE |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Public Library of Science
2022
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/57261/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/57261/1/journal.pone.0259816.pdf https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259816 |
id |
ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:57261 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:57261 2024-02-11T10:04:16+01:00 Impact of paleoclimate on present and future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet Yang, Hu Krebs-Kanzow, Uta Kleiner, Thomas Sidorenko, Dmitry Rodehacke, Christian Bernd Shi, Xiaoxu Gierz, Paul Niu, Lu Gowan, Evan J. Hinck, Sebastian Liu, Xingxing Stap, Lennert B. Lohmann, Gerrit von der Heydt, Anna 2022-01-20 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/57261/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/57261/1/journal.pone.0259816.pdf https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259816 en eng Public Library of Science https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/57261/1/journal.pone.0259816.pdf Yang, H., Krebs-Kanzow, U., Kleiner, T., Sidorenko, D., Rodehacke, C. B., Shi, X., Gierz, P., Niu, L., Gowan, E. J., Hinck, S., Liu, X., Stap, L. B., Lohmann, G. and von der Heydt, A. (2022) Impact of paleoclimate on present and future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Open Access PLoS ONE, 17 (1). e0259816. DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0259816 <https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259816>. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0259816 cc_by_4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Article PeerReviewed 2022 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259816 2024-01-15T00:26:12Z Using transient climate forcing based on simulations from the Alfred Wegener Institute Earth System Model (AWI-ESM), we simulate the evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) from the last interglacial (125 ka, kiloyear before present) to 2100 AD with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). The impact of paleoclimate, especially Holocene climate, on the present and future evolution of the GrIS is explored. Our simulations of the past show close agreement with reconstructions with respect to the recent timing of the peaks in ice volume and the climate of Greenland. The maximum and minimum ice volume at around 18–17 ka and 6–5 ka lag the respective extremes in climate by several thousand years, implying that the ice volume response of the GrIS strongly lags climatic changes. Given that Greenland’s climate was getting colder from the Holocene Thermal Maximum (i.e., 8 ka) to the Pre-Industrial era, our simulation implies that the GrIS experienced growth from the mid-Holocene to the industrial era. Due to this background trend, the GrIS still gains mass until the second half of the 20th century, even though anthropogenic warming begins around 1850 AD. This is also in agreement with observational evidence showing mass loss of the GrIS does not begin earlier than the late 20th century. Our results highlight that the present evolution of the GrIS is not only controlled by the recent climate changes, but is also affected by paleoclimate, especially the relatively warm Holocene climate. We propose that the GrIS was not in equilibrium throughout the entire Holocene and that the slow response to Holocene climate needs to be represented in ice sheet simulations in order to predict ice mass loss, and therefore sea level rise, accurately. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Greenland PLOS ONE 17 1 e0259816 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
op_collection_id |
ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
Using transient climate forcing based on simulations from the Alfred Wegener Institute Earth System Model (AWI-ESM), we simulate the evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) from the last interglacial (125 ka, kiloyear before present) to 2100 AD with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). The impact of paleoclimate, especially Holocene climate, on the present and future evolution of the GrIS is explored. Our simulations of the past show close agreement with reconstructions with respect to the recent timing of the peaks in ice volume and the climate of Greenland. The maximum and minimum ice volume at around 18–17 ka and 6–5 ka lag the respective extremes in climate by several thousand years, implying that the ice volume response of the GrIS strongly lags climatic changes. Given that Greenland’s climate was getting colder from the Holocene Thermal Maximum (i.e., 8 ka) to the Pre-Industrial era, our simulation implies that the GrIS experienced growth from the mid-Holocene to the industrial era. Due to this background trend, the GrIS still gains mass until the second half of the 20th century, even though anthropogenic warming begins around 1850 AD. This is also in agreement with observational evidence showing mass loss of the GrIS does not begin earlier than the late 20th century. Our results highlight that the present evolution of the GrIS is not only controlled by the recent climate changes, but is also affected by paleoclimate, especially the relatively warm Holocene climate. We propose that the GrIS was not in equilibrium throughout the entire Holocene and that the slow response to Holocene climate needs to be represented in ice sheet simulations in order to predict ice mass loss, and therefore sea level rise, accurately. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Yang, Hu Krebs-Kanzow, Uta Kleiner, Thomas Sidorenko, Dmitry Rodehacke, Christian Bernd Shi, Xiaoxu Gierz, Paul Niu, Lu Gowan, Evan J. Hinck, Sebastian Liu, Xingxing Stap, Lennert B. Lohmann, Gerrit von der Heydt, Anna |
spellingShingle |
Yang, Hu Krebs-Kanzow, Uta Kleiner, Thomas Sidorenko, Dmitry Rodehacke, Christian Bernd Shi, Xiaoxu Gierz, Paul Niu, Lu Gowan, Evan J. Hinck, Sebastian Liu, Xingxing Stap, Lennert B. Lohmann, Gerrit von der Heydt, Anna Impact of paleoclimate on present and future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet |
author_facet |
Yang, Hu Krebs-Kanzow, Uta Kleiner, Thomas Sidorenko, Dmitry Rodehacke, Christian Bernd Shi, Xiaoxu Gierz, Paul Niu, Lu Gowan, Evan J. Hinck, Sebastian Liu, Xingxing Stap, Lennert B. Lohmann, Gerrit von der Heydt, Anna |
author_sort |
Yang, Hu |
title |
Impact of paleoclimate on present and future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet |
title_short |
Impact of paleoclimate on present and future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet |
title_full |
Impact of paleoclimate on present and future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet |
title_fullStr |
Impact of paleoclimate on present and future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of paleoclimate on present and future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet |
title_sort |
impact of paleoclimate on present and future evolution of the greenland ice sheet |
publisher |
Public Library of Science |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/57261/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/57261/1/journal.pone.0259816.pdf https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259816 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/57261/1/journal.pone.0259816.pdf Yang, H., Krebs-Kanzow, U., Kleiner, T., Sidorenko, D., Rodehacke, C. B., Shi, X., Gierz, P., Niu, L., Gowan, E. J., Hinck, S., Liu, X., Stap, L. B., Lohmann, G. and von der Heydt, A. (2022) Impact of paleoclimate on present and future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Open Access PLoS ONE, 17 (1). e0259816. DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0259816 <https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259816>. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0259816 |
op_rights |
cc_by_4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259816 |
container_title |
PLOS ONE |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
e0259816 |
_version_ |
1790600842901979136 |