Expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the Northeast Atlantic
Scenarios constitute narratives or storylines that reasonably describe how the future is likely to unfold. The usefulness of scenarios in Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) is now recognised within policy and research, with many institutions urging the development of likely trajectories in the future s...
Published in: | Marine Policy |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
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Elsevier
2021
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Online Access: | https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/54050/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/54050/1/Calado_Papaioannou_2021_MarPol.pdf https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0308597X21003523?via%3Dihub https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104741 |
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:54050 2024-02-11T10:06:30+01:00 Expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the Northeast Atlantic Calado, H. Pegorelli, C. Vergílio, M. Hipólito, C. Campos, A. Moniz, F. Costa, A.C. Pereira da Silva, C. Fonseca, C. Frazão Santos, C. Gabriel, D. Guerreiro, J. Gil, A.J.F. Johnson, D. Ng, K. Monwar, M.M. Ventura, M.A. Suárez-de Vivero, J.L. Pinho, M. Borges, P. Caña-Varona, M. Papaioannou, Eva 2021-11 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/54050/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/54050/1/Calado_Papaioannou_2021_MarPol.pdf https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0308597X21003523?via%3Dihub https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104741 en eng Elsevier https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/54050/1/Calado_Papaioannou_2021_MarPol.pdf Calado, H., Pegorelli, C., Vergílio, M., Hipólito, C., Campos, A., Moniz, F., Costa, A. C., Pereira da Silva, C., Fonseca, C., Frazão Santos, C., Gabriel, D., Guerreiro, J., Gil, A. J. F., Johnson, D., Ng, K., Monwar, M. M., Ventura, M. A., Suárez-de Vivero, J. L., Pinho, M., Borges, P., Caña-Varona, M. and Papaioannou, E. (2021) Expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the Northeast Atlantic. Marine Policy, 133 . Art.Nr. 104741. DOI 10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104741 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104741>. doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104741 info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104741 2024-01-15T00:24:00Z Scenarios constitute narratives or storylines that reasonably describe how the future is likely to unfold. The usefulness of scenarios in Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) is now recognised within policy and research, with many institutions urging the development of likely trajectories in the future state of the marine environment and space. However, little progress exists in the actual development and application of actual scenario building approaches. This paper presents the methodology and results of such an approach developed within the framework of the “Geographical and Political Scenarios in Maritime Spatial Planning for the Azores and North Atlantic (GPS Azores)” project. A scenario-building approach for MSP in the area is developed and future scenarios’ storylines are formulated through the active engagement of regional experts. Outcomes from the analysis enable identifying the major risks and opportunities in the management and use of marine space and key maritime sectors, under different scenarios. Three storylines are developed representing distinct trajectories in the use and governance of marine space: (i) Nature at Work; (ii) Business-as-usual; and (iii) Blue Development. Final storylines are the outcome of intense experts’ engagement throughout the scenario-building exercise, stressing the usefulness of such participative approaches. Results can assist policymakers in the context of an adaptive and participatory MSP approach. The methodology can be tailored to other regions, while results can be revisited and adapted as new information and knowledge emerge. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Northeast Atlantic OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Marine Policy 133 104741 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
op_collection_id |
ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
Scenarios constitute narratives or storylines that reasonably describe how the future is likely to unfold. The usefulness of scenarios in Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) is now recognised within policy and research, with many institutions urging the development of likely trajectories in the future state of the marine environment and space. However, little progress exists in the actual development and application of actual scenario building approaches. This paper presents the methodology and results of such an approach developed within the framework of the “Geographical and Political Scenarios in Maritime Spatial Planning for the Azores and North Atlantic (GPS Azores)” project. A scenario-building approach for MSP in the area is developed and future scenarios’ storylines are formulated through the active engagement of regional experts. Outcomes from the analysis enable identifying the major risks and opportunities in the management and use of marine space and key maritime sectors, under different scenarios. Three storylines are developed representing distinct trajectories in the use and governance of marine space: (i) Nature at Work; (ii) Business-as-usual; and (iii) Blue Development. Final storylines are the outcome of intense experts’ engagement throughout the scenario-building exercise, stressing the usefulness of such participative approaches. Results can assist policymakers in the context of an adaptive and participatory MSP approach. The methodology can be tailored to other regions, while results can be revisited and adapted as new information and knowledge emerge. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Calado, H. Pegorelli, C. Vergílio, M. Hipólito, C. Campos, A. Moniz, F. Costa, A.C. Pereira da Silva, C. Fonseca, C. Frazão Santos, C. Gabriel, D. Guerreiro, J. Gil, A.J.F. Johnson, D. Ng, K. Monwar, M.M. Ventura, M.A. Suárez-de Vivero, J.L. Pinho, M. Borges, P. Caña-Varona, M. Papaioannou, Eva |
spellingShingle |
Calado, H. Pegorelli, C. Vergílio, M. Hipólito, C. Campos, A. Moniz, F. Costa, A.C. Pereira da Silva, C. Fonseca, C. Frazão Santos, C. Gabriel, D. Guerreiro, J. Gil, A.J.F. Johnson, D. Ng, K. Monwar, M.M. Ventura, M.A. Suárez-de Vivero, J.L. Pinho, M. Borges, P. Caña-Varona, M. Papaioannou, Eva Expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the Northeast Atlantic |
author_facet |
Calado, H. Pegorelli, C. Vergílio, M. Hipólito, C. Campos, A. Moniz, F. Costa, A.C. Pereira da Silva, C. Fonseca, C. Frazão Santos, C. Gabriel, D. Guerreiro, J. Gil, A.J.F. Johnson, D. Ng, K. Monwar, M.M. Ventura, M.A. Suárez-de Vivero, J.L. Pinho, M. Borges, P. Caña-Varona, M. Papaioannou, Eva |
author_sort |
Calado, H. |
title |
Expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the Northeast Atlantic |
title_short |
Expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the Northeast Atlantic |
title_full |
Expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the Northeast Atlantic |
title_fullStr |
Expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the Northeast Atlantic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the Northeast Atlantic |
title_sort |
expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the northeast atlantic |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/54050/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/54050/1/Calado_Papaioannou_2021_MarPol.pdf https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0308597X21003523?via%3Dihub https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104741 |
genre |
North Atlantic Northeast Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Northeast Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/54050/1/Calado_Papaioannou_2021_MarPol.pdf Calado, H., Pegorelli, C., Vergílio, M., Hipólito, C., Campos, A., Moniz, F., Costa, A. C., Pereira da Silva, C., Fonseca, C., Frazão Santos, C., Gabriel, D., Guerreiro, J., Gil, A. J. F., Johnson, D., Ng, K., Monwar, M. M., Ventura, M. A., Suárez-de Vivero, J. L., Pinho, M., Borges, P., Caña-Varona, M. and Papaioannou, E. (2021) Expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the Northeast Atlantic. Marine Policy, 133 . Art.Nr. 104741. DOI 10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104741 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104741>. doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104741 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104741 |
container_title |
Marine Policy |
container_volume |
133 |
container_start_page |
104741 |
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1790604271620718592 |