Climate-change effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem: A model study
The expected climate change is of growing interest on the regional scale, including the Baltic Sea. However, simulations with global models do not sufficiently resolve the regional impact. Consequently, dynamic downscaling methods are being used to convert the results obtained in global models to th...
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:51042 2023-05-15T18:18:16+02:00 Climate-change effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem: A model study Neumann, Thomas 2010-05 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/51042/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/51042/1/Neumann,T%20%282010%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.12.001 en eng Elsevier https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/51042/1/Neumann,T%20%282010%29.pdf Neumann, T. (2010) Climate-change effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem: A model study. Journal of Marine Systems, 81 (3). pp. 213-224. DOI 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.12.001 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.12.001>. doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.12.001 info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Article PeerReviewed 2010 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.12.001 2023-04-07T15:52:52Z The expected climate change is of growing interest on the regional scale, including the Baltic Sea. However, simulations with global models do not sufficiently resolve the regional impact. Consequently, dynamic downscaling methods are being used to convert the results obtained in global models to the regional scale. In the present study, two regional data sets for greenhouse gas emission scenarios, A1B and B1, for the period 1960 to 2100, were used to force transient simulations with a 3D ecosystem model of the Baltic Sea. The results showed that the expected warming of the Baltic Sea is 1–4 K, with a decrease in salinity and a much reduced sea–ice cover in winter. In addition, the season favoring cyanobacterial blooms is prolonged, with the spring bloom in the Northern Baltic Sea beginning earlier in the season, while the oxygen conditions in deep water are expected to improve slightly. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Journal of Marine Systems 81 3 213 224 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
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ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
The expected climate change is of growing interest on the regional scale, including the Baltic Sea. However, simulations with global models do not sufficiently resolve the regional impact. Consequently, dynamic downscaling methods are being used to convert the results obtained in global models to the regional scale. In the present study, two regional data sets for greenhouse gas emission scenarios, A1B and B1, for the period 1960 to 2100, were used to force transient simulations with a 3D ecosystem model of the Baltic Sea. The results showed that the expected warming of the Baltic Sea is 1–4 K, with a decrease in salinity and a much reduced sea–ice cover in winter. In addition, the season favoring cyanobacterial blooms is prolonged, with the spring bloom in the Northern Baltic Sea beginning earlier in the season, while the oxygen conditions in deep water are expected to improve slightly. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Neumann, Thomas |
spellingShingle |
Neumann, Thomas Climate-change effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem: A model study |
author_facet |
Neumann, Thomas |
author_sort |
Neumann, Thomas |
title |
Climate-change effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem: A model study |
title_short |
Climate-change effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem: A model study |
title_full |
Climate-change effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem: A model study |
title_fullStr |
Climate-change effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem: A model study |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate-change effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem: A model study |
title_sort |
climate-change effects on the baltic sea ecosystem: a model study |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/51042/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/51042/1/Neumann,T%20%282010%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.12.001 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/51042/1/Neumann,T%20%282010%29.pdf Neumann, T. (2010) Climate-change effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem: A model study. Journal of Marine Systems, 81 (3). pp. 213-224. DOI 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.12.001 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.12.001>. doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.12.001 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.12.001 |
container_title |
Journal of Marine Systems |
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81 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
213 |
op_container_end_page |
224 |
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1766194789725765632 |