Abrupt climate and weather changes across time scales
The past provides evidence of abrupt climate shifts and changes in the frequency of climate and weather extremes. We explore the non‐linear response to orbital forcing and then consider climate millennial variability down to daily weather events. Orbital changes are translated into regional response...
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:50354 2023-05-15T17:34:02+02:00 Abrupt climate and weather changes across time scales Lohmann, Gerrit Butzin, Martin Eissner, Nina Shi, Xiaoxu Stepanek, Christian 2020 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/50354/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/50354/1/2019PA003782.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2019PA003782 en eng AGU (American Geophysical Union) https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/50354/1/2019PA003782.pdf Lohmann, G. , Butzin, M. , Eissner, N., Shi, X. and Stepanek, C. (2020) Abrupt climate and weather changes across time scales. Open Access Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 35 (9). Art.Nr. e2019PA003782. DOI 10.1029/2019PA003782 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2019PA003782>. doi:10.1029/2019PA003782 cc_by_4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Article PeerReviewed 2020 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.1029/2019PA003782 2023-04-07T15:51:29Z The past provides evidence of abrupt climate shifts and changes in the frequency of climate and weather extremes. We explore the non‐linear response to orbital forcing and then consider climate millennial variability down to daily weather events. Orbital changes are translated into regional responses in temperature, where the precessional response is related to nonlinearities and seasonal biases in the system. We question regularities found in climate events by analyzing the distribution of inter‐event waiting times. Periodicities of about 900 and 1150 years are found in ice cores besides the prominent 1500‐years cycle. However, the variability remains indistinguishable from a random process, suggesting that centennial‐to‐millennial variability is stochastic in nature. New numerical techniques are developed allowing for a high resolution in the dynamically relevant regions like coasts, major upwelling regions, and high latitudes. Using this model, we find a strong sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation depending on where the deglacial meltwater is injected into. Meltwater into the Mississippi and near Labrador hardly affect the large‐scale ocean circulation, whereas subpolar hosing mimicking icebergs yields a quasi shutdown. The same multi‐scale approach is applied to radiocarbon simulations enabling a dynamical interpretation of marine sediment cores. Finally, abrupt climate events also have counterparts in the recent climate records, revealing a close link between climate variability, the statistics of North Atlantic weather patterns, and extreme events. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology 35 9 |
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Open Polar |
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OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
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ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
The past provides evidence of abrupt climate shifts and changes in the frequency of climate and weather extremes. We explore the non‐linear response to orbital forcing and then consider climate millennial variability down to daily weather events. Orbital changes are translated into regional responses in temperature, where the precessional response is related to nonlinearities and seasonal biases in the system. We question regularities found in climate events by analyzing the distribution of inter‐event waiting times. Periodicities of about 900 and 1150 years are found in ice cores besides the prominent 1500‐years cycle. However, the variability remains indistinguishable from a random process, suggesting that centennial‐to‐millennial variability is stochastic in nature. New numerical techniques are developed allowing for a high resolution in the dynamically relevant regions like coasts, major upwelling regions, and high latitudes. Using this model, we find a strong sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation depending on where the deglacial meltwater is injected into. Meltwater into the Mississippi and near Labrador hardly affect the large‐scale ocean circulation, whereas subpolar hosing mimicking icebergs yields a quasi shutdown. The same multi‐scale approach is applied to radiocarbon simulations enabling a dynamical interpretation of marine sediment cores. Finally, abrupt climate events also have counterparts in the recent climate records, revealing a close link between climate variability, the statistics of North Atlantic weather patterns, and extreme events. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lohmann, Gerrit Butzin, Martin Eissner, Nina Shi, Xiaoxu Stepanek, Christian |
spellingShingle |
Lohmann, Gerrit Butzin, Martin Eissner, Nina Shi, Xiaoxu Stepanek, Christian Abrupt climate and weather changes across time scales |
author_facet |
Lohmann, Gerrit Butzin, Martin Eissner, Nina Shi, Xiaoxu Stepanek, Christian |
author_sort |
Lohmann, Gerrit |
title |
Abrupt climate and weather changes across time scales |
title_short |
Abrupt climate and weather changes across time scales |
title_full |
Abrupt climate and weather changes across time scales |
title_fullStr |
Abrupt climate and weather changes across time scales |
title_full_unstemmed |
Abrupt climate and weather changes across time scales |
title_sort |
abrupt climate and weather changes across time scales |
publisher |
AGU (American Geophysical Union) |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/50354/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/50354/1/2019PA003782.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2019PA003782 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/50354/1/2019PA003782.pdf Lohmann, G. , Butzin, M. , Eissner, N., Shi, X. and Stepanek, C. (2020) Abrupt climate and weather changes across time scales. Open Access Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 35 (9). Art.Nr. e2019PA003782. DOI 10.1029/2019PA003782 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2019PA003782>. doi:10.1029/2019PA003782 |
op_rights |
cc_by_4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019PA003782 |
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Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology |
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35 |
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9 |
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1766132720384081920 |