Cyclone Activity in the Arctic From an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models (Arctic CORDEX)
The ability of state‐of‐the‐art regional climate models to simulate cyclone activity in the Arctic is assessed based on an ensemble of 13 simulations from 11 models from the Arctic‐CORDEX initiative. Some models employ large‐scale spectral nudging techniques. Cyclone characteristics simulated by the...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
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Language: | English |
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AGU (American Geophysical Union)
2018
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Online Access: | https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/50327/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/50327/1/Akperov.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027703 |
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:50327 2023-05-15T14:25:11+02:00 Cyclone Activity in the Arctic From an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models (Arctic CORDEX) Akperov, Mirseid Rinke, Annette Mokhov, Igor I. Matthes, Heidrun Semenov, Vladimir A. Adakudlu, Muralidhar Cassano, John Christensen, Jens H. Dembitskaya, Mariya A. Dethloff, Klaus Fettweis, Xavier Glisan, Justin Gutjahr, Oliver Heinemann, Günther Koenigk, Torben Koldunov, Nikolay V. Laprise, René Mottram, Ruth Nikiéma, Oumarou Scinocca, John F. Sein, Dmitry Sobolowski, Stefan Winger, Katja Zhang, Wenxin 2018-03-16 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/50327/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/50327/1/Akperov.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027703 en eng AGU (American Geophysical Union) Wiley https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/50327/1/Akperov.pdf Akperov, M., Rinke, A., Mokhov, I. I., Matthes, H., Semenov, V. A., Adakudlu, M., Cassano, J., Christensen, J. H., Dembitskaya, M. A., Dethloff, K., Fettweis, X., Glisan, J., Gutjahr, O., Heinemann, G., Koenigk, T., Koldunov, N. V., Laprise, R., Mottram, R., Nikiéma, O., Scinocca, J. F., Sein, D., Sobolowski, S., Winger, K. and Zhang, W. (2018) Cyclone Activity in the Arctic From an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models (Arctic CORDEX). Open Access Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123 (5). pp. 2537-2554. DOI 10.1002/2017JD027703 <https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027703>. doi:10.1002/2017JD027703 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Article PeerReviewed 2018 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027703 2023-04-07T15:51:29Z The ability of state‐of‐the‐art regional climate models to simulate cyclone activity in the Arctic is assessed based on an ensemble of 13 simulations from 11 models from the Arctic‐CORDEX initiative. Some models employ large‐scale spectral nudging techniques. Cyclone characteristics simulated by the ensemble are compared with the results forced by four reanalyses (ERA‐Interim, National Centers for Environmental Prediction‐Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, National Aeronautics and Space Administration‐Modern‐Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2, and Japan Meteorological Agency‐Japanese 55‐year reanalysis) in winter and summer for 1981–2010 period. In addition, we compare cyclone statistics between ERA‐Interim and the Arctic System Reanalysis reanalyses for 2000–2010. Biases in cyclone frequency, intensity, and size over the Arctic are also quantified. Variations in cyclone frequency across the models are partly attributed to the differences in cyclone frequency over land. The variations across the models are largest for small and shallow cyclones for both seasons. A connection between biases in the zonal wind at 200 hPa and cyclone characteristics is found for both seasons. Most models underestimate zonal wind speed in both seasons, which likely leads to underestimation of cyclone mean depth and deep cyclone frequency in the Arctic. In general, the regional climate models are able to represent the spatial distribution of cyclone characteristics in the Arctic but models that employ large‐scale spectral nudging show a better agreement with ERA‐Interim reanalysis than the rest of the models. Trends also exhibit the benefits of nudging. Models with spectral nudging are able to reproduce the cyclone trends, whereas most of the nonnudged models fail to do so. However, the cyclone characteristics and trends are sensitive to the choice of nudged variables. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Arctic Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 123 5 2537 2554 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
op_collection_id |
ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
The ability of state‐of‐the‐art regional climate models to simulate cyclone activity in the Arctic is assessed based on an ensemble of 13 simulations from 11 models from the Arctic‐CORDEX initiative. Some models employ large‐scale spectral nudging techniques. Cyclone characteristics simulated by the ensemble are compared with the results forced by four reanalyses (ERA‐Interim, National Centers for Environmental Prediction‐Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, National Aeronautics and Space Administration‐Modern‐Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2, and Japan Meteorological Agency‐Japanese 55‐year reanalysis) in winter and summer for 1981–2010 period. In addition, we compare cyclone statistics between ERA‐Interim and the Arctic System Reanalysis reanalyses for 2000–2010. Biases in cyclone frequency, intensity, and size over the Arctic are also quantified. Variations in cyclone frequency across the models are partly attributed to the differences in cyclone frequency over land. The variations across the models are largest for small and shallow cyclones for both seasons. A connection between biases in the zonal wind at 200 hPa and cyclone characteristics is found for both seasons. Most models underestimate zonal wind speed in both seasons, which likely leads to underestimation of cyclone mean depth and deep cyclone frequency in the Arctic. In general, the regional climate models are able to represent the spatial distribution of cyclone characteristics in the Arctic but models that employ large‐scale spectral nudging show a better agreement with ERA‐Interim reanalysis than the rest of the models. Trends also exhibit the benefits of nudging. Models with spectral nudging are able to reproduce the cyclone trends, whereas most of the nonnudged models fail to do so. However, the cyclone characteristics and trends are sensitive to the choice of nudged variables. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Akperov, Mirseid Rinke, Annette Mokhov, Igor I. Matthes, Heidrun Semenov, Vladimir A. Adakudlu, Muralidhar Cassano, John Christensen, Jens H. Dembitskaya, Mariya A. Dethloff, Klaus Fettweis, Xavier Glisan, Justin Gutjahr, Oliver Heinemann, Günther Koenigk, Torben Koldunov, Nikolay V. Laprise, René Mottram, Ruth Nikiéma, Oumarou Scinocca, John F. Sein, Dmitry Sobolowski, Stefan Winger, Katja Zhang, Wenxin |
spellingShingle |
Akperov, Mirseid Rinke, Annette Mokhov, Igor I. Matthes, Heidrun Semenov, Vladimir A. Adakudlu, Muralidhar Cassano, John Christensen, Jens H. Dembitskaya, Mariya A. Dethloff, Klaus Fettweis, Xavier Glisan, Justin Gutjahr, Oliver Heinemann, Günther Koenigk, Torben Koldunov, Nikolay V. Laprise, René Mottram, Ruth Nikiéma, Oumarou Scinocca, John F. Sein, Dmitry Sobolowski, Stefan Winger, Katja Zhang, Wenxin Cyclone Activity in the Arctic From an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models (Arctic CORDEX) |
author_facet |
Akperov, Mirseid Rinke, Annette Mokhov, Igor I. Matthes, Heidrun Semenov, Vladimir A. Adakudlu, Muralidhar Cassano, John Christensen, Jens H. Dembitskaya, Mariya A. Dethloff, Klaus Fettweis, Xavier Glisan, Justin Gutjahr, Oliver Heinemann, Günther Koenigk, Torben Koldunov, Nikolay V. Laprise, René Mottram, Ruth Nikiéma, Oumarou Scinocca, John F. Sein, Dmitry Sobolowski, Stefan Winger, Katja Zhang, Wenxin |
author_sort |
Akperov, Mirseid |
title |
Cyclone Activity in the Arctic From an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models (Arctic CORDEX) |
title_short |
Cyclone Activity in the Arctic From an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models (Arctic CORDEX) |
title_full |
Cyclone Activity in the Arctic From an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models (Arctic CORDEX) |
title_fullStr |
Cyclone Activity in the Arctic From an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models (Arctic CORDEX) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Cyclone Activity in the Arctic From an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models (Arctic CORDEX) |
title_sort |
cyclone activity in the arctic from an ensemble of regional climate models (arctic cordex) |
publisher |
AGU (American Geophysical Union) |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/50327/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/50327/1/Akperov.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027703 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/50327/1/Akperov.pdf Akperov, M., Rinke, A., Mokhov, I. I., Matthes, H., Semenov, V. A., Adakudlu, M., Cassano, J., Christensen, J. H., Dembitskaya, M. A., Dethloff, K., Fettweis, X., Glisan, J., Gutjahr, O., Heinemann, G., Koenigk, T., Koldunov, N. V., Laprise, R., Mottram, R., Nikiéma, O., Scinocca, J. F., Sein, D., Sobolowski, S., Winger, K. and Zhang, W. (2018) Cyclone Activity in the Arctic From an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models (Arctic CORDEX). Open Access Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123 (5). pp. 2537-2554. DOI 10.1002/2017JD027703 <https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027703>. doi:10.1002/2017JD027703 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027703 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
container_volume |
123 |
container_issue |
5 |
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2537 |
op_container_end_page |
2554 |
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1766297615050211328 |