ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century
Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and inform on the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimated the future mass balance of the ic...
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications (EGU)
2020
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Online Access: | https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/49429/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/49429/1/tc-2019-324.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-324 |
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:49429 |
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record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
op_collection_id |
ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and inform on the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimated the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes and the forcings employed. This study presents results from 18 simulations from 15 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100, forced with different scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) representative of the spread in climate model results. The contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of Sea Level Equivalent (SLE). The evolution of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss up to 21.0 cm SLE in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.5 and 16.5 cm SLE, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional mass loss of 8 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 AOGCMs show an overall mass loss of 10 mm SLE compared to simulations done under present-day conditions, with limited mass gain in East Antarctica. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Seroussi, Helene Nowicki, Sophie Payne, Antony J. Goelzer, Heiko Lipscomb, William H. Abe Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cecile Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Barthel, Alice Calov, Reinhard Cullather, Richard Dumas, Christophe Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hatterman, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Larour, Eric Leguy, Gunter R. Lowry, Daniel P. Little, Chistopher M. Morlighem, Mathieu Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik S. W. Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas |
spellingShingle |
Seroussi, Helene Nowicki, Sophie Payne, Antony J. Goelzer, Heiko Lipscomb, William H. Abe Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cecile Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Barthel, Alice Calov, Reinhard Cullather, Richard Dumas, Christophe Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hatterman, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Larour, Eric Leguy, Gunter R. Lowry, Daniel P. Little, Chistopher M. Morlighem, Mathieu Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik S. W. Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
author_facet |
Seroussi, Helene Nowicki, Sophie Payne, Antony J. Goelzer, Heiko Lipscomb, William H. Abe Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cecile Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Barthel, Alice Calov, Reinhard Cullather, Richard Dumas, Christophe Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hatterman, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Larour, Eric Leguy, Gunter R. Lowry, Daniel P. Little, Chistopher M. Morlighem, Mathieu Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik S. W. Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas |
author_sort |
Seroussi, Helene |
title |
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
title_short |
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
title_full |
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
title_sort |
ismip6 antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications (EGU) |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/49429/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/49429/1/tc-2019-324.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-324 |
geographic |
Antarctic East Antarctica The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic East Antarctica The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere The Cryosphere Discussions |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere The Cryosphere Discussions |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/49429/1/tc-2019-324.pdf Seroussi, H. , Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J. , Goelzer, H. , Lipscomb, W. H., Abe Ouchi, A. , Agosta, C. , Albrecht, T. , Asay-Davis, X. , Barthel, A. , Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Gladstone, R. , Golledge, N. , Gregory, J. M. , Greve, R. , Hatterman, T. , Hoffman, M. J. , Humbert, A. , Huybrechts, P. , Jourdain, N. C. , Kleiner, T. , Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P. , Little, C. M., Morlighem, M. , Pattyn, F. , Pelle, T. , Price, S. F. , Quiquet, A. , Reese, R. , Schlegel, N. J. , Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S. , Straneo, F. , Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J. , van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R. , Zhao, C. , Zhang, T. and Zwinger, T. (2020) ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century. Open Access The Cryosphere Discussions, 14 . pp. 3033-3070. DOI 10.5194/tc-2019-324 <https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-324>. doi:10.5194/tc-2019-324 |
op_rights |
cc_by_4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-324 |
_version_ |
1766148056787451904 |
spelling |
ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:49429 2023-05-15T13:41:14+02:00 ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century Seroussi, Helene Nowicki, Sophie Payne, Antony J. Goelzer, Heiko Lipscomb, William H. Abe Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cecile Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Barthel, Alice Calov, Reinhard Cullather, Richard Dumas, Christophe Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hatterman, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Larour, Eric Leguy, Gunter R. Lowry, Daniel P. Little, Chistopher M. Morlighem, Mathieu Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Smith, Robin S. Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Trusel, Luke D. Van Breedam, Jonas van de Wal, Roderik S. W. Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas 2020-09-17 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/49429/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/49429/1/tc-2019-324.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-324 en eng Copernicus Publications (EGU) https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/49429/1/tc-2019-324.pdf Seroussi, H. , Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J. , Goelzer, H. , Lipscomb, W. H., Abe Ouchi, A. , Agosta, C. , Albrecht, T. , Asay-Davis, X. , Barthel, A. , Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Gladstone, R. , Golledge, N. , Gregory, J. M. , Greve, R. , Hatterman, T. , Hoffman, M. J. , Humbert, A. , Huybrechts, P. , Jourdain, N. C. , Kleiner, T. , Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P. , Little, C. M., Morlighem, M. , Pattyn, F. , Pelle, T. , Price, S. F. , Quiquet, A. , Reese, R. , Schlegel, N. J. , Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S. , Straneo, F. , Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J. , van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R. , Zhao, C. , Zhang, T. and Zwinger, T. (2020) ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century. Open Access The Cryosphere Discussions, 14 . pp. 3033-3070. DOI 10.5194/tc-2019-324 <https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-324>. doi:10.5194/tc-2019-324 cc_by_4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Article PeerReviewed 2020 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-324 2023-04-07T15:50:07Z Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and inform on the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimated the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes and the forcings employed. This study presents results from 18 simulations from 15 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100, forced with different scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) representative of the spread in climate model results. The contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of Sea Level Equivalent (SLE). The evolution of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss up to 21.0 cm SLE in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.5 and 16.5 cm SLE, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional mass loss of 8 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 AOGCMs show an overall mass loss of 10 mm SLE compared to simulations done under present-day conditions, with limited mass gain in East Antarctica. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere The Cryosphere Discussions OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Antarctic East Antarctica The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |