How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) describe the dominant part of the variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere. Because of the strong connection of these patterns with surface climate, recent years have shown an increased interest and an incre...
Main Authors: | , , |
---|---|
Format: | Conference Object |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
2018
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/45142/ https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm18/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/405690 |
id |
ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:45142 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:45142 2023-05-15T14:24:43+02:00 How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere Domeisen, Daniela I.V. Badin, Gualtiero Koszalka, Inga Monika 2018 https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/45142/ https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm18/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/405690 unknown Domeisen, D. I. V. , Badin, G. and Koszalka, I. M. (2018) How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere. [Poster] In: AGU Fall Meeting 2018. , 10.-14.12.2018, Washington, D.C., USA . info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess Conference or Workshop Item NonPeerReviewed 2018 ftoceanrep 2023-04-07T15:42:54Z The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) describe the dominant part of the variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere. Because of the strong connection of these patterns with surface climate, recent years have shown an increased interest and an increasing skill in forecasting them. However, it is unclear what the intrinsic limits of short-term predictability for the NAO and AO patterns are. This study compares the variability and predictability of both patterns, using a range of data and index computation methods for the daily NAO and AO indices. Small deviations from Gaussianity are found along with characteristic decorrelation time scales of around one week. In the analysis of the Lyapunov spectrum it is found that predictability is not significantly different between the AO and NAO or between reanalysis products. Differences exist, however, between the indices based on EOF analysis, which exhibit predictability time scales around 12–16 days, and the station-based indices, exhibiting a longer predictability of 18–20 days. Both of these time scales indicate predictability beyond that currently obtained in ensemble prediction models for short-term predictability. Additional longer-term predictability for these patterns may be gained through local feedbacks and remote forcing mechanisms for particular atmospheric conditions. Conference Object Arctic Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
op_collection_id |
ftoceanrep |
language |
unknown |
description |
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) describe the dominant part of the variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere. Because of the strong connection of these patterns with surface climate, recent years have shown an increased interest and an increasing skill in forecasting them. However, it is unclear what the intrinsic limits of short-term predictability for the NAO and AO patterns are. This study compares the variability and predictability of both patterns, using a range of data and index computation methods for the daily NAO and AO indices. Small deviations from Gaussianity are found along with characteristic decorrelation time scales of around one week. In the analysis of the Lyapunov spectrum it is found that predictability is not significantly different between the AO and NAO or between reanalysis products. Differences exist, however, between the indices based on EOF analysis, which exhibit predictability time scales around 12–16 days, and the station-based indices, exhibiting a longer predictability of 18–20 days. Both of these time scales indicate predictability beyond that currently obtained in ensemble prediction models for short-term predictability. Additional longer-term predictability for these patterns may be gained through local feedbacks and remote forcing mechanisms for particular atmospheric conditions. |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Domeisen, Daniela I.V. Badin, Gualtiero Koszalka, Inga Monika |
spellingShingle |
Domeisen, Daniela I.V. Badin, Gualtiero Koszalka, Inga Monika How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere |
author_facet |
Domeisen, Daniela I.V. Badin, Gualtiero Koszalka, Inga Monika |
author_sort |
Domeisen, Daniela I.V. |
title |
How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere |
title_short |
How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere |
title_full |
How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere |
title_fullStr |
How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere |
title_full_unstemmed |
How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere |
title_sort |
how predictable are the arctic and north atlantic oscillations? exploring the variability and predictability of the northern hemisphere |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/45142/ https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm18/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/405690 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
Domeisen, D. I. V. , Badin, G. and Koszalka, I. M. (2018) How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere. [Poster] In: AGU Fall Meeting 2018. , 10.-14.12.2018, Washington, D.C., USA . |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
_version_ |
1766297160421212160 |