Arctic sea ice area changes in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models’ ensembles
The shrinking Arctic sea ice cover observed during the last decades is probably the clearest manifestation of ongoing climate change. While climate models in general reproduce the sea ice retreat in the Arctic during the 20th century and simulate further sea ice area loss during the 21st century in...
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Nauka
2017
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Online Access: | https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/38775/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/38775/1/361-575-1-SM.pdf https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2017-1-77-107 |
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:38775 2023-05-15T14:27:22+02:00 Arctic sea ice area changes in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models’ ensembles Semenov, V. A. Martin, Thomas Behrens, L. K. Latif, Mojib Astafieva, E. S. 2017 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/38775/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/38775/1/361-575-1-SM.pdf https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2017-1-77-107 ru rus Nauka https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/38775/1/361-575-1-SM.pdf Semenov, V. A., Martin, T. , Behrens, L. K., Latif, M. and Astafieva, E. S. (2017) Arctic sea ice area changes in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models’ ensembles. Open Access Ice and Snow (Lëd i sneg), 57 (1). pp. 77-107. DOI 10.15356/2076-6734-2017-1-77-107 <https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2017-1-77-107>. doi:10.15356/2076-6734-2017-1-77-107 cc_by_4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Article PeerReviewed 2017 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2017-1-77-107 2023-04-07T15:34:28Z The shrinking Arctic sea ice cover observed during the last decades is probably the clearest manifestation of ongoing climate change. While climate models in general reproduce the sea ice retreat in the Arctic during the 20th century and simulate further sea ice area loss during the 21st century in response to anthropogenic forcing, the models suffer from large biases and the results exhibit considerable spread. Here, we compare results from the two last generations of climate models, CMIP3 and CMIP5, with respect to total and regional Arctic sea ice change. Different characteristics of sea ice area (SIA) in March and September have been analysed for the Entire Arctic, Central Arctic and Barents Sea. Further, the sensitivity of SIA to changes in Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature is investigated and dynamical links between SIA and some atmospheric variability modes are assessed. CMIP3 (SRES A1B) and CMIP5 (RCP8.5) models not only simulate a coherent decline of the Arctic SIA but also depict consistent changes in the SIA seasonal cycle. The spatial patterns of SIC variability improve in CMIP5 ensemble, most noticeably in summer when compared to HadISST1 data. A better simulation of summer SIA in the Entire Arctic by CMIP5 models is accompanied by a slightly increased bias for winter season in comparison to CMIP3 ensemble. SIA in the Barents Sea is strongly overestimated by the majority of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models, and projected SIA changes are characterized by a high uncertainty. Both CMIP ensembles depict a significant link between the SIA and NH temperature changes indicating that a part of inter-ensemble SIA spread comes from different temperature sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing. The results suggest that, in general, a sensitivity of SIA to external forcing is enhanced in CMIP5 models. Arctic SIA interannual variability in the end of the 20th century is on average well simulated by both ensembles. To the end of the 21st century, September variability is strongly reduced in CMIP5 models under RCP8.5 ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Barents Sea Climate change Sea ice OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Arctic Barents Sea Ice and Snow 57 1 77 107 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
op_collection_id |
ftoceanrep |
language |
Russian |
description |
The shrinking Arctic sea ice cover observed during the last decades is probably the clearest manifestation of ongoing climate change. While climate models in general reproduce the sea ice retreat in the Arctic during the 20th century and simulate further sea ice area loss during the 21st century in response to anthropogenic forcing, the models suffer from large biases and the results exhibit considerable spread. Here, we compare results from the two last generations of climate models, CMIP3 and CMIP5, with respect to total and regional Arctic sea ice change. Different characteristics of sea ice area (SIA) in March and September have been analysed for the Entire Arctic, Central Arctic and Barents Sea. Further, the sensitivity of SIA to changes in Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature is investigated and dynamical links between SIA and some atmospheric variability modes are assessed. CMIP3 (SRES A1B) and CMIP5 (RCP8.5) models not only simulate a coherent decline of the Arctic SIA but also depict consistent changes in the SIA seasonal cycle. The spatial patterns of SIC variability improve in CMIP5 ensemble, most noticeably in summer when compared to HadISST1 data. A better simulation of summer SIA in the Entire Arctic by CMIP5 models is accompanied by a slightly increased bias for winter season in comparison to CMIP3 ensemble. SIA in the Barents Sea is strongly overestimated by the majority of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models, and projected SIA changes are characterized by a high uncertainty. Both CMIP ensembles depict a significant link between the SIA and NH temperature changes indicating that a part of inter-ensemble SIA spread comes from different temperature sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing. The results suggest that, in general, a sensitivity of SIA to external forcing is enhanced in CMIP5 models. Arctic SIA interannual variability in the end of the 20th century is on average well simulated by both ensembles. To the end of the 21st century, September variability is strongly reduced in CMIP5 models under RCP8.5 ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Semenov, V. A. Martin, Thomas Behrens, L. K. Latif, Mojib Astafieva, E. S. |
spellingShingle |
Semenov, V. A. Martin, Thomas Behrens, L. K. Latif, Mojib Astafieva, E. S. Arctic sea ice area changes in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models’ ensembles |
author_facet |
Semenov, V. A. Martin, Thomas Behrens, L. K. Latif, Mojib Astafieva, E. S. |
author_sort |
Semenov, V. A. |
title |
Arctic sea ice area changes in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models’ ensembles |
title_short |
Arctic sea ice area changes in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models’ ensembles |
title_full |
Arctic sea ice area changes in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models’ ensembles |
title_fullStr |
Arctic sea ice area changes in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models’ ensembles |
title_full_unstemmed |
Arctic sea ice area changes in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models’ ensembles |
title_sort |
arctic sea ice area changes in cmip3 and cmip5 climate models’ ensembles |
publisher |
Nauka |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/38775/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/38775/1/361-575-1-SM.pdf https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2017-1-77-107 |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Barents Sea Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Barents Sea Climate change Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/38775/1/361-575-1-SM.pdf Semenov, V. A., Martin, T. , Behrens, L. K., Latif, M. and Astafieva, E. S. (2017) Arctic sea ice area changes in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models’ ensembles. Open Access Ice and Snow (Lëd i sneg), 57 (1). pp. 77-107. DOI 10.15356/2076-6734-2017-1-77-107 <https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2017-1-77-107>. doi:10.15356/2076-6734-2017-1-77-107 |
op_rights |
cc_by_4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.15356/2076-6734-2017-1-77-107 |
container_title |
Ice and Snow |
container_volume |
57 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
77 |
op_container_end_page |
107 |
_version_ |
1766301074980864000 |