Aerosol and Solar Irradiance Effects on Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability
The expanding interest in decadal climate variability, predictability, and prediction highlights the importance of understanding the sources and mechanisms of decadal and interdecadal climate fluctuations. The purpose of this paper is to provide a critical review of our current understanding of exte...
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:38098 2023-05-15T17:35:04+02:00 Aerosol and Solar Irradiance Effects on Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability Zanchettin, Davide 2017 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/38098/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/38098/1/Zanchettin.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0065-y en eng Springer https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/38098/1/Zanchettin.pdf Zanchettin, D. (2017) Aerosol and Solar Irradiance Effects on Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability. Current Climate Change Reports, 3 (2). pp. 150-162. DOI 10.1007/s40641-017-0065-y <https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0065-y>. doi:10.1007/s40641-017-0065-y info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Article PeerReviewed 2017 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0065-y 2023-04-07T15:33:38Z The expanding interest in decadal climate variability, predictability, and prediction highlights the importance of understanding the sources and mechanisms of decadal and interdecadal climate fluctuations. The purpose of this paper is to provide a critical review of our current understanding of externally forced decadal climate variability. In particular, proposed mechanisms determining decadal climate responses to variations in solar activity, stratospheric volcanic aerosols, and natural as well as anthropogenic tropospheric aerosols are discussed, both separately and in a unified framework. The review suggests that the excitation of internal modes of interdecadal climate variability, particularly centered in the Pacific and North Atlantic sectors, remains a paradigm to characterize externally forced decadal climate variability and to interpret the associated dynamics. Significant recent advancements are the improved understanding of the critical dependency of volcanically forced decadal climate variability on the relative phase of ongoing internal variability and on additional external perturbations, and the recognition that associated uncertainty may represent a serious obstacle to identifying the climatic consequences even of very strong eruptions. Particularly relevant is also the recent development of hypotheses about potential mechanisms (reemergence and synchronization) underlying solar forced decadal climate variability. Finally, outstanding issues and, hence, major opportunities for progress regarding externally forced decadal climate variability are discussed. Uncertain characterization of forcing and climate histories, imperfect implementation of complex forcings in climate models, limited understanding of the internal component of interdecadal climate variability, and poor quality of its simulation are some of the enduring critical obstacles on which to progress. It is suggested that much further understanding can be gained through identification and investigation of relevant periods of forced ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Pacific Current Climate Change Reports 3 2 150 162 |
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OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
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English |
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The expanding interest in decadal climate variability, predictability, and prediction highlights the importance of understanding the sources and mechanisms of decadal and interdecadal climate fluctuations. The purpose of this paper is to provide a critical review of our current understanding of externally forced decadal climate variability. In particular, proposed mechanisms determining decadal climate responses to variations in solar activity, stratospheric volcanic aerosols, and natural as well as anthropogenic tropospheric aerosols are discussed, both separately and in a unified framework. The review suggests that the excitation of internal modes of interdecadal climate variability, particularly centered in the Pacific and North Atlantic sectors, remains a paradigm to characterize externally forced decadal climate variability and to interpret the associated dynamics. Significant recent advancements are the improved understanding of the critical dependency of volcanically forced decadal climate variability on the relative phase of ongoing internal variability and on additional external perturbations, and the recognition that associated uncertainty may represent a serious obstacle to identifying the climatic consequences even of very strong eruptions. Particularly relevant is also the recent development of hypotheses about potential mechanisms (reemergence and synchronization) underlying solar forced decadal climate variability. Finally, outstanding issues and, hence, major opportunities for progress regarding externally forced decadal climate variability are discussed. Uncertain characterization of forcing and climate histories, imperfect implementation of complex forcings in climate models, limited understanding of the internal component of interdecadal climate variability, and poor quality of its simulation are some of the enduring critical obstacles on which to progress. It is suggested that much further understanding can be gained through identification and investigation of relevant periods of forced ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zanchettin, Davide |
spellingShingle |
Zanchettin, Davide Aerosol and Solar Irradiance Effects on Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability |
author_facet |
Zanchettin, Davide |
author_sort |
Zanchettin, Davide |
title |
Aerosol and Solar Irradiance Effects on Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability |
title_short |
Aerosol and Solar Irradiance Effects on Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability |
title_full |
Aerosol and Solar Irradiance Effects on Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability |
title_fullStr |
Aerosol and Solar Irradiance Effects on Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Aerosol and Solar Irradiance Effects on Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability |
title_sort |
aerosol and solar irradiance effects on decadal climate variability and predictability |
publisher |
Springer |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/38098/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/38098/1/Zanchettin.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0065-y |
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Pacific |
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Pacific |
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North Atlantic |
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North Atlantic |
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https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/38098/1/Zanchettin.pdf Zanchettin, D. (2017) Aerosol and Solar Irradiance Effects on Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability. Current Climate Change Reports, 3 (2). pp. 150-162. DOI 10.1007/s40641-017-0065-y <https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0065-y>. doi:10.1007/s40641-017-0065-y |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0065-y |
container_title |
Current Climate Change Reports |
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3 |
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2 |
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150 |
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162 |
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1766134109730504704 |