Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere
An influence of solar irradiance variations on Earth’s surface climate has been repeatedly suggested, based on correlations between solar variability and meteorological variables1. Specifically, weaker westerly winds have been observed in winters with a less active sun, for example at the minimum ph...
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Online Access: | https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/37193/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/37193/1/Ineson.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO1282 |
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:37193 2023-05-15T15:07:57+02:00 Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere Ineson, Sarah Scaife, Adam A. Knight, Jeff R. Manners, James C. Dunstone, Nick J. Gray, Lesley J. Haigh, Joanna D. 2011 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/37193/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/37193/1/Ineson.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO1282 en eng Nature Publishing Group https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/37193/1/Ineson.pdf Ineson, S., Scaife, A. A., Knight, J. R., Manners, J. C., Dunstone, N. J., Gray, L. J. and Haigh, J. D. (2011) Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Nature Geoscience, 4 (11). pp. 753-757. DOI 10.1038/NGEO1282 <https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO1282>. doi:10.1038/NGEO1282 info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess Article PeerReviewed 2011 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO1282 2023-04-07T15:32:05Z An influence of solar irradiance variations on Earth’s surface climate has been repeatedly suggested, based on correlations between solar variability and meteorological variables1. Specifically, weaker westerly winds have been observed in winters with a less active sun, for example at the minimum phase of the 11-year sunspot cycle2, 3, 4. With some possible exceptions5, 6, it has proved difficult for climate models to consistently reproduce this signal7, 8. Spectral Irradiance Monitor satellite measurements indicate that variations in solar ultraviolet irradiance may be larger than previously thought9. Here we drive an ocean–atmosphere climate model with ultraviolet irradiance variations based on these observations. We find that the model responds to the solar minimum with patterns in surface pressure and temperature that resemble the negative phase of the North Atlantic or Arctic Oscillation, of similar magnitude to observations. In our model, the anomalies descend through the depth of the extratropical winter atmosphere. If the updated measurements of solar ultraviolet irradiance are correct, low solar activity, as observed during recent years, drives cold winters in northern Europe and the United States, and mild winters over southern Europe and Canada, with little direct change in globally averaged temperature. Given the quasiregularity of the 11-year solar cycle, our findings may help improve decadal climate predictions for highly populated extratropical regions Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Arctic Canada Nature Geoscience 4 11 753 757 |
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OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
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English |
description |
An influence of solar irradiance variations on Earth’s surface climate has been repeatedly suggested, based on correlations between solar variability and meteorological variables1. Specifically, weaker westerly winds have been observed in winters with a less active sun, for example at the minimum phase of the 11-year sunspot cycle2, 3, 4. With some possible exceptions5, 6, it has proved difficult for climate models to consistently reproduce this signal7, 8. Spectral Irradiance Monitor satellite measurements indicate that variations in solar ultraviolet irradiance may be larger than previously thought9. Here we drive an ocean–atmosphere climate model with ultraviolet irradiance variations based on these observations. We find that the model responds to the solar minimum with patterns in surface pressure and temperature that resemble the negative phase of the North Atlantic or Arctic Oscillation, of similar magnitude to observations. In our model, the anomalies descend through the depth of the extratropical winter atmosphere. If the updated measurements of solar ultraviolet irradiance are correct, low solar activity, as observed during recent years, drives cold winters in northern Europe and the United States, and mild winters over southern Europe and Canada, with little direct change in globally averaged temperature. Given the quasiregularity of the 11-year solar cycle, our findings may help improve decadal climate predictions for highly populated extratropical regions |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ineson, Sarah Scaife, Adam A. Knight, Jeff R. Manners, James C. Dunstone, Nick J. Gray, Lesley J. Haigh, Joanna D. |
spellingShingle |
Ineson, Sarah Scaife, Adam A. Knight, Jeff R. Manners, James C. Dunstone, Nick J. Gray, Lesley J. Haigh, Joanna D. Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere |
author_facet |
Ineson, Sarah Scaife, Adam A. Knight, Jeff R. Manners, James C. Dunstone, Nick J. Gray, Lesley J. Haigh, Joanna D. |
author_sort |
Ineson, Sarah |
title |
Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere |
title_short |
Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere |
title_full |
Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere |
title_fullStr |
Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere |
title_full_unstemmed |
Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere |
title_sort |
solar forcing of winter climate variability in the northern hemisphere |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/37193/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/37193/1/Ineson.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO1282 |
geographic |
Arctic Canada |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/37193/1/Ineson.pdf Ineson, S., Scaife, A. A., Knight, J. R., Manners, J. C., Dunstone, N. J., Gray, L. J. and Haigh, J. D. (2011) Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Nature Geoscience, 4 (11). pp. 753-757. DOI 10.1038/NGEO1282 <https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO1282>. doi:10.1038/NGEO1282 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO1282 |
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Nature Geoscience |
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4 |
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11 |
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753 |
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757 |
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1766339369038249984 |