Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate
A set of ensemble integrations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, with historical forcing plus RCP4.5 scenario, are used to explore if state-of-the-art climate models are able to simulate previously reported linkages between sea-ice concentration (SIC) anomalies over the eastern...
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Online Access: | https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/35019/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/35019/1/10.1007_s00382-016-3454-3.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 |
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:35019 2023-05-15T14:27:36+02:00 Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate Garcia-Serrano, J. Frankignoul, C. King, M. P. Arribas, A. Gao, Y. Guemas, V. Matei, D. Msadek, R. Park, Wonsun Sanchez-Gomez, E. 2017-10 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/35019/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/35019/1/10.1007_s00382-016-3454-3.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 en eng Springer https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/35019/1/10.1007_s00382-016-3454-3.pdf Garcia-Serrano, J., Frankignoul, C., King, M. P., Arribas, A., Gao, Y., Guemas, V., Matei, D., Msadek, R., Park, W. and Sanchez-Gomez, E. (2017) Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate. Climate Dynamics, 49 (7-8). pp. 2407-2429. DOI 10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3>. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Article PeerReviewed info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2017 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 2023-04-07T15:29:41Z A set of ensemble integrations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, with historical forcing plus RCP4.5 scenario, are used to explore if state-of-the-art climate models are able to simulate previously reported linkages between sea-ice concentration (SIC) anomalies over the eastern Arctic, namely in the Greenland–Barents–Kara Seas, and lagged atmospheric circulation that projects on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO). The study is focused on variability around the long-term trends, so that all anomalies are detrended prior to analysis; the period of study is 1979–2013. The model linkages are detected by applying maximum covariance analysis. As also found in observational data, all the models considered here show a statistically significant link with sea-ice reduction over the eastern Arctic followed by a negative NAO/AO-like pattern. If the simulated relationship is found at a lag of one month, the results suggest that a stratospheric pathway could be at play as the driving mechanism; in observations this is preferentially shown for SIC in November. The interference of a wave-like anomaly over Eurasia, accompanying SIC changes, with the climatological wave pattern appears to be key in setting the mediating role of the stratosphere. On the other hand, if the simulated relationship is found at a lag of two months, the results suggest that tropospheric dynamics are dominant, presumably due to transient eddy feedback; in observations this is preferentially shown for SIC in December. The results shown here and previous evidence from atmosphere-only experiments emphasize that there could be a detectable influence of eastern Arctic SIC variability on mid-latitude atmospheric circulation anomalies. Even if the mechanisms are robust among the models, the timing of the simulated linkages strongly depends on the model and does not generally mimic the observational ones. This implies that the atmospheric sensitivity to sea-ice changes largely depends on the mean-flow and ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Arctic Greenland Climate Dynamics 49 7-8 2407 2429 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
op_collection_id |
ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
A set of ensemble integrations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, with historical forcing plus RCP4.5 scenario, are used to explore if state-of-the-art climate models are able to simulate previously reported linkages between sea-ice concentration (SIC) anomalies over the eastern Arctic, namely in the Greenland–Barents–Kara Seas, and lagged atmospheric circulation that projects on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO). The study is focused on variability around the long-term trends, so that all anomalies are detrended prior to analysis; the period of study is 1979–2013. The model linkages are detected by applying maximum covariance analysis. As also found in observational data, all the models considered here show a statistically significant link with sea-ice reduction over the eastern Arctic followed by a negative NAO/AO-like pattern. If the simulated relationship is found at a lag of one month, the results suggest that a stratospheric pathway could be at play as the driving mechanism; in observations this is preferentially shown for SIC in November. The interference of a wave-like anomaly over Eurasia, accompanying SIC changes, with the climatological wave pattern appears to be key in setting the mediating role of the stratosphere. On the other hand, if the simulated relationship is found at a lag of two months, the results suggest that tropospheric dynamics are dominant, presumably due to transient eddy feedback; in observations this is preferentially shown for SIC in December. The results shown here and previous evidence from atmosphere-only experiments emphasize that there could be a detectable influence of eastern Arctic SIC variability on mid-latitude atmospheric circulation anomalies. Even if the mechanisms are robust among the models, the timing of the simulated linkages strongly depends on the model and does not generally mimic the observational ones. This implies that the atmospheric sensitivity to sea-ice changes largely depends on the mean-flow and ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Garcia-Serrano, J. Frankignoul, C. King, M. P. Arribas, A. Gao, Y. Guemas, V. Matei, D. Msadek, R. Park, Wonsun Sanchez-Gomez, E. |
spellingShingle |
Garcia-Serrano, J. Frankignoul, C. King, M. P. Arribas, A. Gao, Y. Guemas, V. Matei, D. Msadek, R. Park, Wonsun Sanchez-Gomez, E. Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate |
author_facet |
Garcia-Serrano, J. Frankignoul, C. King, M. P. Arribas, A. Gao, Y. Guemas, V. Matei, D. Msadek, R. Park, Wonsun Sanchez-Gomez, E. |
author_sort |
Garcia-Serrano, J. |
title |
Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate |
title_short |
Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate |
title_full |
Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate |
title_fullStr |
Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate |
title_sort |
multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern arctic sea-ice variability and the euro-atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate |
publisher |
Springer |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/35019/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/35019/1/10.1007_s00382-016-3454-3.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 |
geographic |
Arctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Greenland |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/35019/1/10.1007_s00382-016-3454-3.pdf Garcia-Serrano, J., Frankignoul, C., King, M. P., Arribas, A., Gao, Y., Guemas, V., Matei, D., Msadek, R., Park, W. and Sanchez-Gomez, E. (2017) Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate. Climate Dynamics, 49 (7-8). pp. 2407-2429. DOI 10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3>. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
49 |
container_issue |
7-8 |
container_start_page |
2407 |
op_container_end_page |
2429 |
_version_ |
1766301410891137024 |