Assessing climate impacts and risks of ocean albedo modification in the Arctic
The ice albedo feedback is one of the key factors of accelerated temperature increase in the high northern latitudes under global warming. This study assesses climate impacts and risks of idealized Arctic Ocean albedo modification (AOAM), a proposed climate engineering method, during transient cli-...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
AGU (American Geophysical Union)
2016
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/33009/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/33009/1/jgrc21700.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/33009/2/jgrc21700-sup-0001-2015JC011433-s01.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011433 |
id |
ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:33009 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:33009 2023-05-15T13:10:35+02:00 Assessing climate impacts and risks of ocean albedo modification in the Arctic Mengis, Nadine Martin, Torge Keller, David P. Oschlies, Andreas 2016-05-13 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/33009/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/33009/1/jgrc21700.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/33009/2/jgrc21700-sup-0001-2015JC011433-s01.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011433 en eng AGU (American Geophysical Union) Wiley https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/33009/1/jgrc21700.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/33009/2/jgrc21700-sup-0001-2015JC011433-s01.pdf Mengis, N. , Martin, T. , Keller, D. P. and Oschlies, A. (2016) Assessing climate impacts and risks of ocean albedo modification in the Arctic. Open Access Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121 (5). pp. 3044-3057. DOI 10.1002/2015JC011433 <https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011433>. doi:10.1002/2015JC011433 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Article PeerReviewed 2016 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011433 2023-04-07T15:25:51Z The ice albedo feedback is one of the key factors of accelerated temperature increase in the high northern latitudes under global warming. This study assesses climate impacts and risks of idealized Arctic Ocean albedo modification (AOAM), a proposed climate engineering method, during transient cli- mate change simulations with varying representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. We find no potential for reversing trends in all assessed Arctic climate metrics under increasing atmospheric CO2 con- centrations. AOAM only yields an initial offset during the first years after implementation. Nevertheless, sea ice loss can be delayed by 25(60) years in the RCP8.5(RCP4.5) scenario and the delayed thawing of perma- frost soils in the AOAM simulations prevents up to 40(32) Pg of carbon from being released by 2100. AOAM initially dampens the decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning and delays the onset of open ocean deep convection in the Nordic Seas under the RCP scenarios. Both these processes cause a subsurface warming signal in the AOAM simulations relative to the default RCP simulations with the potential to desta- bilize Arctic marine gas hydrates. Furthermore, in 2100, the RCP8.5 AOAM simulation diverts more from the 2005–2015 reference state in many climate metrics than the RCP4.5 simulation without AOAM. Considering the demonstrated risks, we conclude that concerning longer time scales, reductions in emissions remain the safest and most effective way to prevent severe changes in the Arctic. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Global warming Nordic Seas Sea ice OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Arctic Arctic Ocean Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 121 5 3044 3057 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
op_collection_id |
ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
The ice albedo feedback is one of the key factors of accelerated temperature increase in the high northern latitudes under global warming. This study assesses climate impacts and risks of idealized Arctic Ocean albedo modification (AOAM), a proposed climate engineering method, during transient cli- mate change simulations with varying representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. We find no potential for reversing trends in all assessed Arctic climate metrics under increasing atmospheric CO2 con- centrations. AOAM only yields an initial offset during the first years after implementation. Nevertheless, sea ice loss can be delayed by 25(60) years in the RCP8.5(RCP4.5) scenario and the delayed thawing of perma- frost soils in the AOAM simulations prevents up to 40(32) Pg of carbon from being released by 2100. AOAM initially dampens the decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning and delays the onset of open ocean deep convection in the Nordic Seas under the RCP scenarios. Both these processes cause a subsurface warming signal in the AOAM simulations relative to the default RCP simulations with the potential to desta- bilize Arctic marine gas hydrates. Furthermore, in 2100, the RCP8.5 AOAM simulation diverts more from the 2005–2015 reference state in many climate metrics than the RCP4.5 simulation without AOAM. Considering the demonstrated risks, we conclude that concerning longer time scales, reductions in emissions remain the safest and most effective way to prevent severe changes in the Arctic. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mengis, Nadine Martin, Torge Keller, David P. Oschlies, Andreas |
spellingShingle |
Mengis, Nadine Martin, Torge Keller, David P. Oschlies, Andreas Assessing climate impacts and risks of ocean albedo modification in the Arctic |
author_facet |
Mengis, Nadine Martin, Torge Keller, David P. Oschlies, Andreas |
author_sort |
Mengis, Nadine |
title |
Assessing climate impacts and risks of ocean albedo modification in the Arctic |
title_short |
Assessing climate impacts and risks of ocean albedo modification in the Arctic |
title_full |
Assessing climate impacts and risks of ocean albedo modification in the Arctic |
title_fullStr |
Assessing climate impacts and risks of ocean albedo modification in the Arctic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing climate impacts and risks of ocean albedo modification in the Arctic |
title_sort |
assessing climate impacts and risks of ocean albedo modification in the arctic |
publisher |
AGU (American Geophysical Union) |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/33009/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/33009/1/jgrc21700.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/33009/2/jgrc21700-sup-0001-2015JC011433-s01.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011433 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
albedo Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Global warming Nordic Seas Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Global warming Nordic Seas Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/33009/1/jgrc21700.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/33009/2/jgrc21700-sup-0001-2015JC011433-s01.pdf Mengis, N. , Martin, T. , Keller, D. P. and Oschlies, A. (2016) Assessing climate impacts and risks of ocean albedo modification in the Arctic. Open Access Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121 (5). pp. 3044-3057. DOI 10.1002/2015JC011433 <https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011433>. doi:10.1002/2015JC011433 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011433 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans |
container_volume |
121 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
3044 |
op_container_end_page |
3057 |
_version_ |
1766235062135685120 |