Surface salinity fields in the Arctic Ocean and statistical approaches to predicting anomalies and patterns
Significant salinity anomalies have been observed in the Arctic Ocean surface layer during the last decade. Using gridded data of winter salinity in the upper 50 m layer of the Arctic Ocean for the period 1950-1993 and 2007-2012, we investigated the inter-annual variability of the salinity fields, a...
Main Authors: | , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Report |
Language: | English |
Published: |
arXiv.org
2014
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/30242/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/30242/1/Chernyavskaya.pdf http://arxiv.org/abs/1409.2062 |
id |
ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:30242 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:30242 2023-05-15T14:24:42+02:00 Surface salinity fields in the Arctic Ocean and statistical approaches to predicting anomalies and patterns Chernyavskaya, E. Sudakov, I. Golden, K. M. Timokhov, L. A. 2014 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/30242/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/30242/1/Chernyavskaya.pdf http://arxiv.org/abs/1409.2062 en eng arXiv.org https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/30242/1/Chernyavskaya.pdf Chernyavskaya, E., Sudakov, I., Golden, K. M. and Timokhov, L. A. (2014) Surface salinity fields in the Arctic Ocean and statistical approaches to predicting anomalies and patterns. Open Access . arXiv, 1409.2062 . arXiv.org, 25 pp. cc_by_3.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Report NonPeerReviewed 2014 ftoceanrep 2023-04-07T15:21:40Z Significant salinity anomalies have been observed in the Arctic Ocean surface layer during the last decade. Using gridded data of winter salinity in the upper 50 m layer of the Arctic Ocean for the period 1950-1993 and 2007-2012, we investigated the inter-annual variability of the salinity fields, attempted to identify patterns and anomalies, and developed a statistical model for the prediction of surface layer salinity. The statistical model is based on linear regression equations linking the principal components with environmental factors, such as atmospheric circulation, river runoff, ice processes, and water exchange with neighboring oceans. Using this model, we obtained prognostic fields of the surface layer salinity for the winter period 2013-2014. The prognostic fields demonstrated the same tendencies of surface layer freshening that were observed previously. A phase portrait analysis involving the first two principal components exhibits a dramatic shift in behavior of the 2007-2012 data in comparison to earlier observations. Report Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Arctic Arctic Ocean |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
op_collection_id |
ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
Significant salinity anomalies have been observed in the Arctic Ocean surface layer during the last decade. Using gridded data of winter salinity in the upper 50 m layer of the Arctic Ocean for the period 1950-1993 and 2007-2012, we investigated the inter-annual variability of the salinity fields, attempted to identify patterns and anomalies, and developed a statistical model for the prediction of surface layer salinity. The statistical model is based on linear regression equations linking the principal components with environmental factors, such as atmospheric circulation, river runoff, ice processes, and water exchange with neighboring oceans. Using this model, we obtained prognostic fields of the surface layer salinity for the winter period 2013-2014. The prognostic fields demonstrated the same tendencies of surface layer freshening that were observed previously. A phase portrait analysis involving the first two principal components exhibits a dramatic shift in behavior of the 2007-2012 data in comparison to earlier observations. |
format |
Report |
author |
Chernyavskaya, E. Sudakov, I. Golden, K. M. Timokhov, L. A. |
spellingShingle |
Chernyavskaya, E. Sudakov, I. Golden, K. M. Timokhov, L. A. Surface salinity fields in the Arctic Ocean and statistical approaches to predicting anomalies and patterns |
author_facet |
Chernyavskaya, E. Sudakov, I. Golden, K. M. Timokhov, L. A. |
author_sort |
Chernyavskaya, E. |
title |
Surface salinity fields in the Arctic Ocean and statistical approaches to predicting anomalies and patterns |
title_short |
Surface salinity fields in the Arctic Ocean and statistical approaches to predicting anomalies and patterns |
title_full |
Surface salinity fields in the Arctic Ocean and statistical approaches to predicting anomalies and patterns |
title_fullStr |
Surface salinity fields in the Arctic Ocean and statistical approaches to predicting anomalies and patterns |
title_full_unstemmed |
Surface salinity fields in the Arctic Ocean and statistical approaches to predicting anomalies and patterns |
title_sort |
surface salinity fields in the arctic ocean and statistical approaches to predicting anomalies and patterns |
publisher |
arXiv.org |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/30242/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/30242/1/Chernyavskaya.pdf http://arxiv.org/abs/1409.2062 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/30242/1/Chernyavskaya.pdf Chernyavskaya, E., Sudakov, I., Golden, K. M. and Timokhov, L. A. (2014) Surface salinity fields in the Arctic Ocean and statistical approaches to predicting anomalies and patterns. Open Access . arXiv, 1409.2062 . arXiv.org, 25 pp. |
op_rights |
cc_by_3.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
_version_ |
1766297145196937216 |