Multiyear predictability of Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature in the Kiel Climate Model
The multiyear predictability of Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature (SAT) is examined in a multi-millennial control integration of the Kiel Climate Model, a coupled ocean–atmosphere–sea ice general circulation model. A statistical method maximizing average predictability time (APT) is used t...
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Online Access: | https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/30113/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/30113/1/art_10.1007_s00382-015-2871-z.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2871-z |
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:30113 2023-05-15T17:30:37+02:00 Multiyear predictability of Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature in the Kiel Climate Model Wu, Yanling Latif, Mojib Park, Wonsun 2016-08 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/30113/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/30113/1/art_10.1007_s00382-015-2871-z.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2871-z en eng Springer https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/30113/1/art_10.1007_s00382-015-2871-z.pdf Wu, Y., Latif, M. and Park, W. (2016) Multiyear predictability of Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature in the Kiel Climate Model. Climate Dynamics, 47 (3). pp. 793-804. DOI 10.1007/s00382-015-2871-z <https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2871-z>. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2871-z info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Article PeerReviewed info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2016 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2871-z 2023-04-07T15:21:26Z The multiyear predictability of Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature (SAT) is examined in a multi-millennial control integration of the Kiel Climate Model, a coupled ocean–atmosphere–sea ice general circulation model. A statistical method maximizing average predictability time (APT) is used to identify the most predictable SAT patterns in the model. The two leading APT modes are much localized and the physics are discussed that give rise to the enhanced predictability of SAT in these limited regions. Multiyear SAT predictability exists near the sea ice margin in the North Atlantic and mid-latitude North Pacific sector. Enhanced predictability in the North Atlantic is linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and to the sea ice changes. In the North Pacific, the most predictable SAT pattern is characterized by a zonal band in the western and central mid-latitude Pacific. This pattern is linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which drives sea surface temperature anomalies. The temperature anomalies subduct into deeper ocean layers and re-emerge at the sea surface during the following winters, providing multiyear memory. Results obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble yield similar APT modes. Overall, the results stress the importance of ocean dynamics in enhancing predictability in the atmosphere. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Sea ice OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Pacific Climate Dynamics 47 3-4 793 804 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
op_collection_id |
ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
The multiyear predictability of Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature (SAT) is examined in a multi-millennial control integration of the Kiel Climate Model, a coupled ocean–atmosphere–sea ice general circulation model. A statistical method maximizing average predictability time (APT) is used to identify the most predictable SAT patterns in the model. The two leading APT modes are much localized and the physics are discussed that give rise to the enhanced predictability of SAT in these limited regions. Multiyear SAT predictability exists near the sea ice margin in the North Atlantic and mid-latitude North Pacific sector. Enhanced predictability in the North Atlantic is linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and to the sea ice changes. In the North Pacific, the most predictable SAT pattern is characterized by a zonal band in the western and central mid-latitude Pacific. This pattern is linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which drives sea surface temperature anomalies. The temperature anomalies subduct into deeper ocean layers and re-emerge at the sea surface during the following winters, providing multiyear memory. Results obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble yield similar APT modes. Overall, the results stress the importance of ocean dynamics in enhancing predictability in the atmosphere. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wu, Yanling Latif, Mojib Park, Wonsun |
spellingShingle |
Wu, Yanling Latif, Mojib Park, Wonsun Multiyear predictability of Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature in the Kiel Climate Model |
author_facet |
Wu, Yanling Latif, Mojib Park, Wonsun |
author_sort |
Wu, Yanling |
title |
Multiyear predictability of Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature in the Kiel Climate Model |
title_short |
Multiyear predictability of Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature in the Kiel Climate Model |
title_full |
Multiyear predictability of Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature in the Kiel Climate Model |
title_fullStr |
Multiyear predictability of Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature in the Kiel Climate Model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multiyear predictability of Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature in the Kiel Climate Model |
title_sort |
multiyear predictability of northern hemisphere surface air temperature in the kiel climate model |
publisher |
Springer |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/30113/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/30113/1/art_10.1007_s00382-015-2871-z.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2871-z |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/30113/1/art_10.1007_s00382-015-2871-z.pdf Wu, Y., Latif, M. and Park, W. (2016) Multiyear predictability of Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature in the Kiel Climate Model. Climate Dynamics, 47 (3). pp. 793-804. DOI 10.1007/s00382-015-2871-z <https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2871-z>. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2871-z |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2871-z |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
47 |
container_issue |
3-4 |
container_start_page |
793 |
op_container_end_page |
804 |
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1766127468191678464 |