Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012
The early 21st century was marked by several severe winters over Central Eurasia linked to a blocking anti-cyclone centered south of the Barents Sea. Severe winters in Central Eurasia were frequent in the 1960s when Arctic sea ice cover was anomalously large, and rare in the 1990s featuring consider...
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IOP Publishing
2015
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Online Access: | https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/1/1748-9326_10_5_054020.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/2/erl054020_S1.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/3/erl054020_S2.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/4/erl054020_S3.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/5/erl054020_S4.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/6/erl054020_S5.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020 |
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:28940 2023-05-15T14:27:54+02:00 Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 Semenov, Vladimir A. Latif, Mojib 2015-05-22 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/1/1748-9326_10_5_054020.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/2/erl054020_S1.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/3/erl054020_S2.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/4/erl054020_S3.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/5/erl054020_S4.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/6/erl054020_S5.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020 en eng IOP Publishing https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/1/1748-9326_10_5_054020.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/2/erl054020_S1.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/3/erl054020_S2.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/4/erl054020_S3.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/5/erl054020_S4.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/6/erl054020_S5.pdf Semenov, V. A. and Latif, M. (2015) Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012. Open Access Environmental Research Letters, 10 (5). 054020. DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020 <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326%2F10%2F5%2F054020>. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020 cc_by_3.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Article PeerReviewed 2015 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020 2023-04-07T15:19:34Z The early 21st century was marked by several severe winters over Central Eurasia linked to a blocking anti-cyclone centered south of the Barents Sea. Severe winters in Central Eurasia were frequent in the 1960s when Arctic sea ice cover was anomalously large, and rare in the 1990s featuring considerably less sea ice cover; the 1960s being characterized by a low, the 1990s by a high phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the major driver of surface climate variability in Central Eurasia. We performed ensemble simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model using a set of multi-year Arctic sea ice climatologies corresponding to different periods during 1966–2012. The atmospheric response to the strongly reduced sea ice cover of 2005–2012 exhibits a statistically significant anti-cyclonic surface pressure anomaly which is similar to that observed. A similar response is found when the strongly positive sea ice cover anomaly of 1966–1969 drives the model. Basically no significant atmospheric circulation response was simulated when the model was forced by the sea ice cover anomaly of 1990–1995. The results suggest that sea ice cover reduction, through a changed atmospheric circulation, considerably contributed to the recent anomalously cold winters in Central Eurasia. Further, a nonlinear atmospheric circulation response to shrinking sea ice cover is suggested that depends on the background sea ice cover. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Barents Sea North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Arctic Barents Sea Environmental Research Letters 10 5 054020 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
op_collection_id |
ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
The early 21st century was marked by several severe winters over Central Eurasia linked to a blocking anti-cyclone centered south of the Barents Sea. Severe winters in Central Eurasia were frequent in the 1960s when Arctic sea ice cover was anomalously large, and rare in the 1990s featuring considerably less sea ice cover; the 1960s being characterized by a low, the 1990s by a high phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the major driver of surface climate variability in Central Eurasia. We performed ensemble simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model using a set of multi-year Arctic sea ice climatologies corresponding to different periods during 1966–2012. The atmospheric response to the strongly reduced sea ice cover of 2005–2012 exhibits a statistically significant anti-cyclonic surface pressure anomaly which is similar to that observed. A similar response is found when the strongly positive sea ice cover anomaly of 1966–1969 drives the model. Basically no significant atmospheric circulation response was simulated when the model was forced by the sea ice cover anomaly of 1990–1995. The results suggest that sea ice cover reduction, through a changed atmospheric circulation, considerably contributed to the recent anomalously cold winters in Central Eurasia. Further, a nonlinear atmospheric circulation response to shrinking sea ice cover is suggested that depends on the background sea ice cover. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Semenov, Vladimir A. Latif, Mojib |
spellingShingle |
Semenov, Vladimir A. Latif, Mojib Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 |
author_facet |
Semenov, Vladimir A. Latif, Mojib |
author_sort |
Semenov, Vladimir A. |
title |
Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 |
title_short |
Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 |
title_full |
Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 |
title_fullStr |
Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 |
title_sort |
nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/1/1748-9326_10_5_054020.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/2/erl054020_S1.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/3/erl054020_S2.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/4/erl054020_S3.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/5/erl054020_S4.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/6/erl054020_S5.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020 |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Barents Sea North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Barents Sea North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/1/1748-9326_10_5_054020.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/2/erl054020_S1.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/3/erl054020_S2.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/4/erl054020_S3.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/5/erl054020_S4.pdf https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/28940/6/erl054020_S5.pdf Semenov, V. A. and Latif, M. (2015) Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012. Open Access Environmental Research Letters, 10 (5). 054020. DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020 <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326%2F10%2F5%2F054020>. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020 |
op_rights |
cc_by_3.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054020 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
054020 |
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1766301971753467904 |