Model projections of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century assessed by observations
Most climate models predict a weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century when forced by increasing levels of greenhouse gas concentrations. The model spread, however, is rather large, even when the forcing scenario is identical, indicating a large uncertainty in th...
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Online Access: | https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/269/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/269/1/2005GL024368.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024368 |
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:269 2024-09-15T18:20:55+00:00 Model projections of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century assessed by observations Schmittner, A. Latif, Mojib Schneider, Birgit 2005 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/269/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/269/1/2005GL024368.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024368 en eng AGU (American Geophysical Union) https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/269/1/2005GL024368.pdf Schmittner, A., Latif, M. and Schneider, B. (2005) Model projections of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century assessed by observations. Open Access Geophysical Research Letters, 32 . L23710. DOI 10.1029/2005GL024368 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024368>. doi:10.1029/2005GL024368 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Article PeerReviewed 2005 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024368 2024-09-04T05:04:40Z Most climate models predict a weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century when forced by increasing levels of greenhouse gas concentrations. The model spread, however, is rather large, even when the forcing scenario is identical, indicating a large uncertainty in the response to forcing. In order to reduce the model uncertainties a weighting procedure is applied considering the skill of each model in simulating hydrographic properties and observation-based circulation estimates. This procedure yields a “best estimate” for the evolution of the North Atlantic THC during the 21st century by taking into account a measure of model quality. Using 28 projections from 9 different coupled global climate models of a scenario of future CO2 increase (SRESA1B) performed for the upcoming fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the analysis predicts a gradual weakening of the North Atlantic THC by 25(±25)% until 2100. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North atlantic Thermohaline circulation OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Geophysical Research Letters 32 23 |
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Open Polar |
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OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
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ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
Most climate models predict a weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century when forced by increasing levels of greenhouse gas concentrations. The model spread, however, is rather large, even when the forcing scenario is identical, indicating a large uncertainty in the response to forcing. In order to reduce the model uncertainties a weighting procedure is applied considering the skill of each model in simulating hydrographic properties and observation-based circulation estimates. This procedure yields a “best estimate” for the evolution of the North Atlantic THC during the 21st century by taking into account a measure of model quality. Using 28 projections from 9 different coupled global climate models of a scenario of future CO2 increase (SRESA1B) performed for the upcoming fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the analysis predicts a gradual weakening of the North Atlantic THC by 25(±25)% until 2100. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Schmittner, A. Latif, Mojib Schneider, Birgit |
spellingShingle |
Schmittner, A. Latif, Mojib Schneider, Birgit Model projections of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century assessed by observations |
author_facet |
Schmittner, A. Latif, Mojib Schneider, Birgit |
author_sort |
Schmittner, A. |
title |
Model projections of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century assessed by observations |
title_short |
Model projections of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century assessed by observations |
title_full |
Model projections of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century assessed by observations |
title_fullStr |
Model projections of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century assessed by observations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Model projections of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century assessed by observations |
title_sort |
model projections of the north atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century assessed by observations |
publisher |
AGU (American Geophysical Union) |
publishDate |
2005 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/269/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/269/1/2005GL024368.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024368 |
genre |
North Atlantic North atlantic Thermohaline circulation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North atlantic Thermohaline circulation |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/269/1/2005GL024368.pdf Schmittner, A., Latif, M. and Schneider, B. (2005) Model projections of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century assessed by observations. Open Access Geophysical Research Letters, 32 . L23710. DOI 10.1029/2005GL024368 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024368>. doi:10.1029/2005GL024368 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024368 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
32 |
container_issue |
23 |
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1810459310123122688 |