Offshore CCS and ocean acidification: a global long-term probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of climate change mitigation
Public fear for environmental and health impacts or potential leakage of CO2 from geological reservoirs is among the reasons why over the past decade CCS has not yet been deployed on a large enough scale so as to meaningfully contribute to mitigate climate change. Storage of CO2 under the seabed mov...
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:26848 2023-05-15T17:51:05+02:00 Offshore CCS and ocean acidification: a global long-term probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of climate change mitigation Gerlagh, Reyer van der Zwaan, Bob 2014 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/26848/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/26848/1/ECO2_D5.2.pdf https://doi.org/10.3289/ECO2_D5.2 en eng ECO2 Project Office https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/26848/1/ECO2_D5.2.pdf Gerlagh, R. and van der Zwaan, B. (2014) Offshore CCS and ocean acidification: a global long-term probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of climate change mitigation. Open Access . ECO2 Deliverable, D5.2 . ECO2 Project Office, Kiel, Germany, 13 pp. DOI 10.3289/ECO2_D5.2 <https://doi.org/10.3289/ECO2_D5.2>. doi:10.3289/ECO2_D5.2 cc_by info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Report NonPeerReviewed info:eu-repo/semantics/book 2014 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.3289/ECO2_D5.2 2023-04-07T15:16:40Z Public fear for environmental and health impacts or potential leakage of CO2 from geological reservoirs is among the reasons why over the past decade CCS has not yet been deployed on a large enough scale so as to meaningfully contribute to mitigate climate change. Storage of CO2 under the seabed moves this climate mitigation option away from inhabited areas and could thereby take away some of the opposition towards this technology. Given that in the event of CO2 leakage for sub-seabed CCS the ocean would function as buffer for receiving this greenhouse gas, rather than the atmosphere, offshore CCS could particularly address concerns over the climatic impacts of CO2 seepage. In this paper we point out that recent geological studies confirm that leakage for individual offshore CCS operations may be highly unlikely from a technical point of view, if storage sites are well chosen, well managed and well monitored. But we argue that on a global long-term scale, for an ensemble of thousands or millions of storage sites, leakage of CO2 could take place in certain cases and/or countries for e.g. economic, institutional, legal or safety cultural reasons. We investigated what the impact could be in terms of temperature increase and ocean acidification if leakage would nevertheless occur, and addressed the question what the relative roles could be of on- and offshore CCS if mankind desires to divert the atmospheric damages resulting from climate change. For this purpose, we constructed a top-down energy-environment-economy model, with which we performed a probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of climate change mitigation with on- and offshore CCS as specific CO2 abatement options. One of our main conclusions is that even if there is non-zero leakage for CCS activity on a global scale, there is high probability that both onshore and offshore CCS could – on economic grounds – still account for anywhere between 20% and 80% of all future CO2 abatement efforts under a broad range of CCS cost assumptions. Book Ocean acidification OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
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OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
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English |
description |
Public fear for environmental and health impacts or potential leakage of CO2 from geological reservoirs is among the reasons why over the past decade CCS has not yet been deployed on a large enough scale so as to meaningfully contribute to mitigate climate change. Storage of CO2 under the seabed moves this climate mitigation option away from inhabited areas and could thereby take away some of the opposition towards this technology. Given that in the event of CO2 leakage for sub-seabed CCS the ocean would function as buffer for receiving this greenhouse gas, rather than the atmosphere, offshore CCS could particularly address concerns over the climatic impacts of CO2 seepage. In this paper we point out that recent geological studies confirm that leakage for individual offshore CCS operations may be highly unlikely from a technical point of view, if storage sites are well chosen, well managed and well monitored. But we argue that on a global long-term scale, for an ensemble of thousands or millions of storage sites, leakage of CO2 could take place in certain cases and/or countries for e.g. economic, institutional, legal or safety cultural reasons. We investigated what the impact could be in terms of temperature increase and ocean acidification if leakage would nevertheless occur, and addressed the question what the relative roles could be of on- and offshore CCS if mankind desires to divert the atmospheric damages resulting from climate change. For this purpose, we constructed a top-down energy-environment-economy model, with which we performed a probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of climate change mitigation with on- and offshore CCS as specific CO2 abatement options. One of our main conclusions is that even if there is non-zero leakage for CCS activity on a global scale, there is high probability that both onshore and offshore CCS could – on economic grounds – still account for anywhere between 20% and 80% of all future CO2 abatement efforts under a broad range of CCS cost assumptions. |
format |
Book |
author |
Gerlagh, Reyer van der Zwaan, Bob |
spellingShingle |
Gerlagh, Reyer van der Zwaan, Bob Offshore CCS and ocean acidification: a global long-term probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of climate change mitigation |
author_facet |
Gerlagh, Reyer van der Zwaan, Bob |
author_sort |
Gerlagh, Reyer |
title |
Offshore CCS and ocean acidification: a global long-term probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of climate change mitigation |
title_short |
Offshore CCS and ocean acidification: a global long-term probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of climate change mitigation |
title_full |
Offshore CCS and ocean acidification: a global long-term probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of climate change mitigation |
title_fullStr |
Offshore CCS and ocean acidification: a global long-term probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of climate change mitigation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Offshore CCS and ocean acidification: a global long-term probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of climate change mitigation |
title_sort |
offshore ccs and ocean acidification: a global long-term probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of climate change mitigation |
publisher |
ECO2 Project Office |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/26848/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/26848/1/ECO2_D5.2.pdf https://doi.org/10.3289/ECO2_D5.2 |
genre |
Ocean acidification |
genre_facet |
Ocean acidification |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/26848/1/ECO2_D5.2.pdf Gerlagh, R. and van der Zwaan, B. (2014) Offshore CCS and ocean acidification: a global long-term probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of climate change mitigation. Open Access . ECO2 Deliverable, D5.2 . ECO2 Project Office, Kiel, Germany, 13 pp. DOI 10.3289/ECO2_D5.2 <https://doi.org/10.3289/ECO2_D5.2>. doi:10.3289/ECO2_D5.2 |
op_rights |
cc_by info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3289/ECO2_D5.2 |
_version_ |
1766158105409748992 |