Ice and AIS: ship speed data and sea ice forecasts in the Baltic Sea
The Baltic Sea is a seasonally ice-covered marginal sea located in a densely populated area in northern Europe. Severe sea ice conditions have the potential to hinder the intense ship traffic considerably. Thus, sea ice fore- and nowcasts are regularly provided by the national weather services. Typi...
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Copernicus Publications (EGU)
2014
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Online Access: | https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/25432/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/25432/1/tc-8-2409-2014.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2409-2014 |
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:25432 2023-05-15T18:17:24+02:00 Ice and AIS: ship speed data and sea ice forecasts in the Baltic Sea Löptien, Ulrike Axell, L. 2014-12-23 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/25432/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/25432/1/tc-8-2409-2014.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2409-2014 en eng Copernicus Publications (EGU) https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/25432/1/tc-8-2409-2014.pdf Löptien, U. and Axell, L. (2014) Ice and AIS: ship speed data and sea ice forecasts in the Baltic Sea. Open Access The Cryosphere, 8 . pp. 2409-2418. DOI 10.5194/tc-8-2409-2014 <https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2409-2014>. doi:10.5194/tc-8-2409-2014 cc_by info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Article PeerReviewed info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2014 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2409-2014 2023-04-07T15:14:04Z The Baltic Sea is a seasonally ice-covered marginal sea located in a densely populated area in northern Europe. Severe sea ice conditions have the potential to hinder the intense ship traffic considerably. Thus, sea ice fore- and nowcasts are regularly provided by the national weather services. Typically, the forecast comprises several ice properties that are distributed as prognostic variables, but their actual usefulness is difficult to measure, and the ship captains must determine their relative importance and relevance for optimal ship speed and safety ad hoc. The present study provides a more objective approach by comparing the ship speeds, obtained by the automatic identification system (AIS), with the respective forecasted ice conditions. We find that, despite an unavoidable random component, this information is useful to constrain and rate fore- and nowcasts. More precisely, 62–67% of ship speed variations can be explained by the forecasted ice properties when fitting a mixed-effect model. This statistical fit is based on a test region in the Bothnian Sea during the severe winter 2011 and employs 15 to 25 min averages of ship speed. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice The Cryosphere OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) The Cryosphere 8 6 2409 2418 |
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Open Polar |
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OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
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ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
The Baltic Sea is a seasonally ice-covered marginal sea located in a densely populated area in northern Europe. Severe sea ice conditions have the potential to hinder the intense ship traffic considerably. Thus, sea ice fore- and nowcasts are regularly provided by the national weather services. Typically, the forecast comprises several ice properties that are distributed as prognostic variables, but their actual usefulness is difficult to measure, and the ship captains must determine their relative importance and relevance for optimal ship speed and safety ad hoc. The present study provides a more objective approach by comparing the ship speeds, obtained by the automatic identification system (AIS), with the respective forecasted ice conditions. We find that, despite an unavoidable random component, this information is useful to constrain and rate fore- and nowcasts. More precisely, 62–67% of ship speed variations can be explained by the forecasted ice properties when fitting a mixed-effect model. This statistical fit is based on a test region in the Bothnian Sea during the severe winter 2011 and employs 15 to 25 min averages of ship speed. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Löptien, Ulrike Axell, L. |
spellingShingle |
Löptien, Ulrike Axell, L. Ice and AIS: ship speed data and sea ice forecasts in the Baltic Sea |
author_facet |
Löptien, Ulrike Axell, L. |
author_sort |
Löptien, Ulrike |
title |
Ice and AIS: ship speed data and sea ice forecasts in the Baltic Sea |
title_short |
Ice and AIS: ship speed data and sea ice forecasts in the Baltic Sea |
title_full |
Ice and AIS: ship speed data and sea ice forecasts in the Baltic Sea |
title_fullStr |
Ice and AIS: ship speed data and sea ice forecasts in the Baltic Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ice and AIS: ship speed data and sea ice forecasts in the Baltic Sea |
title_sort |
ice and ais: ship speed data and sea ice forecasts in the baltic sea |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications (EGU) |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/25432/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/25432/1/tc-8-2409-2014.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2409-2014 |
genre |
Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/25432/1/tc-8-2409-2014.pdf Löptien, U. and Axell, L. (2014) Ice and AIS: ship speed data and sea ice forecasts in the Baltic Sea. Open Access The Cryosphere, 8 . pp. 2409-2418. DOI 10.5194/tc-8-2409-2014 <https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2409-2014>. doi:10.5194/tc-8-2409-2014 |
op_rights |
cc_by info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2409-2014 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
6 |
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2409 |
op_container_end_page |
2418 |
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1766191600612933632 |