Southern Ocean Sector Centennial Climate Variability and Recent Decadal Trends
Evidence is presented for the notion that some contribution to the recent decadal trends observed in the Southern Hemisphere, including the lack of a strong Southern Ocean surface warming, may have originated from longer-term internal centennial variability originating in the Southern Ocean. The exi...
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:21871 2023-05-15T14:05:25+02:00 Southern Ocean Sector Centennial Climate Variability and Recent Decadal Trends Latif, Mojib Martin, Torge Park, Wonsun 2013 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/21871/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/21871/1/jcli-d-12-00281.1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00281.1 en eng AMS (American Meteorological Society) https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/21871/1/jcli-d-12-00281.1.pdf Latif, M. , Martin, T. and Park, W. (2013) Southern Ocean Sector Centennial Climate Variability and Recent Decadal Trends. Open Access Journal of Climate, 26 . pp. 7767-7782. DOI 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00281.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00281.1>. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00281.1 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Article PeerReviewed info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2013 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00281.1 2023-04-07T15:10:11Z Evidence is presented for the notion that some contribution to the recent decadal trends observed in the Southern Hemisphere, including the lack of a strong Southern Ocean surface warming, may have originated from longer-term internal centennial variability originating in the Southern Ocean. The existence of such centennial variability is supported by the instrumental sea surface temperatures (SSTs), a multimillennial reconstruction of Tasmanian summer temperatures from tree rings, and a millennial control integration of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). The model variability was previously shown to be linked to changes in Weddell Sea deep convection. During phases of deep convection the surface Southern Ocean warms, the abyssal Southern Ocean cools, Antarctic sea ice extent retreats, and the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean weakens. After the halt of deep convection the surface Southern Ocean cools, the abyssal Southern Ocean warms, Antarctic sea ice expands, and the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean intensifies, consistent with what has been observed during the recent decades. A strong sensitivity of the time scale to model formulation is noted. In the KCM, the centennial variability is associated with global-average surface air temperature (SAT) changes of the order of a few tenths of a degree per century. The model results thus suggest that internal centennial variability originating in the Southern Ocean should be considered in addition to other internal variability and external forcing when discussing the climate of the twentieth century and projecting that of the twenty-first century. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean Weddell Sea OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Antarctic Southern Ocean Weddell Weddell Sea Journal of Climate 26 19 7767 7782 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
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ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
Evidence is presented for the notion that some contribution to the recent decadal trends observed in the Southern Hemisphere, including the lack of a strong Southern Ocean surface warming, may have originated from longer-term internal centennial variability originating in the Southern Ocean. The existence of such centennial variability is supported by the instrumental sea surface temperatures (SSTs), a multimillennial reconstruction of Tasmanian summer temperatures from tree rings, and a millennial control integration of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). The model variability was previously shown to be linked to changes in Weddell Sea deep convection. During phases of deep convection the surface Southern Ocean warms, the abyssal Southern Ocean cools, Antarctic sea ice extent retreats, and the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean weakens. After the halt of deep convection the surface Southern Ocean cools, the abyssal Southern Ocean warms, Antarctic sea ice expands, and the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean intensifies, consistent with what has been observed during the recent decades. A strong sensitivity of the time scale to model formulation is noted. In the KCM, the centennial variability is associated with global-average surface air temperature (SAT) changes of the order of a few tenths of a degree per century. The model results thus suggest that internal centennial variability originating in the Southern Ocean should be considered in addition to other internal variability and external forcing when discussing the climate of the twentieth century and projecting that of the twenty-first century. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Latif, Mojib Martin, Torge Park, Wonsun |
spellingShingle |
Latif, Mojib Martin, Torge Park, Wonsun Southern Ocean Sector Centennial Climate Variability and Recent Decadal Trends |
author_facet |
Latif, Mojib Martin, Torge Park, Wonsun |
author_sort |
Latif, Mojib |
title |
Southern Ocean Sector Centennial Climate Variability and Recent Decadal Trends |
title_short |
Southern Ocean Sector Centennial Climate Variability and Recent Decadal Trends |
title_full |
Southern Ocean Sector Centennial Climate Variability and Recent Decadal Trends |
title_fullStr |
Southern Ocean Sector Centennial Climate Variability and Recent Decadal Trends |
title_full_unstemmed |
Southern Ocean Sector Centennial Climate Variability and Recent Decadal Trends |
title_sort |
southern ocean sector centennial climate variability and recent decadal trends |
publisher |
AMS (American Meteorological Society) |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/21871/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/21871/1/jcli-d-12-00281.1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00281.1 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean Weddell Weddell Sea |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean Weddell Weddell Sea |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean Weddell Sea |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean Weddell Sea |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/21871/1/jcli-d-12-00281.1.pdf Latif, M. , Martin, T. and Park, W. (2013) Southern Ocean Sector Centennial Climate Variability and Recent Decadal Trends. Open Access Journal of Climate, 26 . pp. 7767-7782. DOI 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00281.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00281.1>. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00281.1 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00281.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
26 |
container_issue |
19 |
container_start_page |
7767 |
op_container_end_page |
7782 |
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1766277316049108992 |