Hindcast of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shifts in the Pacific
The use of a coupled ocean/atmosphere/sea-ice model to hindcast (i.e. historical forecast) recent climate variability is described and illustrated for the cases of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shift events in the Pacific. The initialization is achieved by running the coupled model in partially co...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
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Language: | English |
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Online Access: | https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/20815/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/20815/1/jcli-d-12-00626.1-1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00626.1 |
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:20815 2023-05-15T13:14:59+02:00 Hindcast of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shifts in the Pacific Ding, Hui Greatbatch, Richard John Latif, Mojib Park, Wonsun Gerdes, Rüdiger 2013 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/20815/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/20815/1/jcli-d-12-00626.1-1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00626.1 en eng AMS (American Meteorological Society) https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/20815/1/jcli-d-12-00626.1-1.pdf Ding, H., Greatbatch, R. J. , Latif, M. , Park, W. and Gerdes, R. (2013) Hindcast of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shifts in the Pacific. Open Access Journal of Climate, 26 . pp. 7650-7661. DOI 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00626.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00626.1>. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00626.1 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Article PeerReviewed info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2013 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00626.1 2023-04-07T15:08:20Z The use of a coupled ocean/atmosphere/sea-ice model to hindcast (i.e. historical forecast) recent climate variability is described and illustrated for the cases of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shift events in the Pacific. The initialization is achieved by running the coupled model in partially coupled mode whereby global observed wind stress anomalies are used to drive the ocean/sea-ice component of the coupled model while maintaining the thermodynamic coupling between the ocean/sea-ice and atmosphere components. Here we show that hindcast experiments can successfully capture many features associated with the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shifts. For instance, hindcast experiments started from the beginning of 1976 can capture sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific and the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) throughout the 9 years following the 1976/77 climate shift, including the deepening of the Aleutian low pressure system. Hindcast experiments started from the beginning of 1998 can also capture part of the anomalous conditions during the 4 years after the 1998/99 climate. We argue that the dynamical adjustment of heat content anomalies that are present in the initial conditions in the tropics is important for the successful hindcast of the two climate shifts. Article in Journal/Newspaper aleutian low Sea ice OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Pacific Journal of Climate 26 19 7650 7661 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
op_collection_id |
ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
The use of a coupled ocean/atmosphere/sea-ice model to hindcast (i.e. historical forecast) recent climate variability is described and illustrated for the cases of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shift events in the Pacific. The initialization is achieved by running the coupled model in partially coupled mode whereby global observed wind stress anomalies are used to drive the ocean/sea-ice component of the coupled model while maintaining the thermodynamic coupling between the ocean/sea-ice and atmosphere components. Here we show that hindcast experiments can successfully capture many features associated with the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shifts. For instance, hindcast experiments started from the beginning of 1976 can capture sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific and the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) throughout the 9 years following the 1976/77 climate shift, including the deepening of the Aleutian low pressure system. Hindcast experiments started from the beginning of 1998 can also capture part of the anomalous conditions during the 4 years after the 1998/99 climate. We argue that the dynamical adjustment of heat content anomalies that are present in the initial conditions in the tropics is important for the successful hindcast of the two climate shifts. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ding, Hui Greatbatch, Richard John Latif, Mojib Park, Wonsun Gerdes, Rüdiger |
spellingShingle |
Ding, Hui Greatbatch, Richard John Latif, Mojib Park, Wonsun Gerdes, Rüdiger Hindcast of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shifts in the Pacific |
author_facet |
Ding, Hui Greatbatch, Richard John Latif, Mojib Park, Wonsun Gerdes, Rüdiger |
author_sort |
Ding, Hui |
title |
Hindcast of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shifts in the Pacific |
title_short |
Hindcast of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shifts in the Pacific |
title_full |
Hindcast of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shifts in the Pacific |
title_fullStr |
Hindcast of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shifts in the Pacific |
title_full_unstemmed |
Hindcast of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shifts in the Pacific |
title_sort |
hindcast of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shifts in the pacific |
publisher |
AMS (American Meteorological Society) |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/20815/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/20815/1/jcli-d-12-00626.1-1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00626.1 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
aleutian low Sea ice |
genre_facet |
aleutian low Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/20815/1/jcli-d-12-00626.1-1.pdf Ding, H., Greatbatch, R. J. , Latif, M. , Park, W. and Gerdes, R. (2013) Hindcast of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shifts in the Pacific. Open Access Journal of Climate, 26 . pp. 7650-7661. DOI 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00626.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00626.1>. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00626.1 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00626.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
26 |
container_issue |
19 |
container_start_page |
7650 |
op_container_end_page |
7661 |
_version_ |
1766266393828786176 |