Estimating the Decadal Predictability of a Coupled AOGCM.
On seasonal time scales, ENSO prediction has become feasible in an operational framework in recent years. On decadal to multidecadal time scales, the variability of the oceanic circulation is assumed to provide a potential for climate prediction. To investigate the decadal predictability of the coup...
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Online Access: | https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/1616/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/1616/1/3209.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/3209.1 |
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:1616 2024-09-30T14:38:59+00:00 Estimating the Decadal Predictability of a Coupled AOGCM. Pohlmann, H. Botzet, M. Latif, Mojib Roesch, A. Wild, M. Tschuck, P. 2004 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/1616/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/1616/1/3209.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/3209.1 en eng AMS (American Meteorological Society) https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/1616/1/3209.pdf Pohlmann, H., Botzet, M., Latif, M. , Roesch, A., Wild, M. and Tschuck, P. (2004) Estimating the Decadal Predictability of a Coupled AOGCM. Open Access Journal of Climate, 17 (22). pp. 4463-4472. DOI 10.1175/3209.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/3209.1>. doi:10.1175/3209.1 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Article PeerReviewed 2004 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.1175/3209.1 2024-09-04T05:04:40Z On seasonal time scales, ENSO prediction has become feasible in an operational framework in recent years. On decadal to multidecadal time scales, the variability of the oceanic circulation is assumed to provide a potential for climate prediction. To investigate the decadal predictability of the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) European Centre-Hamburg model version 5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM), a 500-yr-long control integration and “perfect model” predictability experiments are analyzed. The results show that the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the North Atlantic, Nordic Seas, and Southern Ocean exhibit predictability on multidecadal time scales. Over the ocean, the predictability of surface air temperature (SAT) is very similar to that of SST. Over land, there is little evidence of decadal predictability of SAT except for some small maritime-influenced regions of Europe. The AOGCM produces predictable signals in lower-tropospheric temperature and precipitation over the North Atlantic, but not in sea level pressure. Article in Journal/Newspaper Nordic Seas North Atlantic Southern Ocean OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Southern Ocean Journal of Climate 17 22 4463 4472 |
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Open Polar |
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OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
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ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
On seasonal time scales, ENSO prediction has become feasible in an operational framework in recent years. On decadal to multidecadal time scales, the variability of the oceanic circulation is assumed to provide a potential for climate prediction. To investigate the decadal predictability of the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) European Centre-Hamburg model version 5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM), a 500-yr-long control integration and “perfect model” predictability experiments are analyzed. The results show that the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the North Atlantic, Nordic Seas, and Southern Ocean exhibit predictability on multidecadal time scales. Over the ocean, the predictability of surface air temperature (SAT) is very similar to that of SST. Over land, there is little evidence of decadal predictability of SAT except for some small maritime-influenced regions of Europe. The AOGCM produces predictable signals in lower-tropospheric temperature and precipitation over the North Atlantic, but not in sea level pressure. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Pohlmann, H. Botzet, M. Latif, Mojib Roesch, A. Wild, M. Tschuck, P. |
spellingShingle |
Pohlmann, H. Botzet, M. Latif, Mojib Roesch, A. Wild, M. Tschuck, P. Estimating the Decadal Predictability of a Coupled AOGCM. |
author_facet |
Pohlmann, H. Botzet, M. Latif, Mojib Roesch, A. Wild, M. Tschuck, P. |
author_sort |
Pohlmann, H. |
title |
Estimating the Decadal Predictability of a Coupled AOGCM. |
title_short |
Estimating the Decadal Predictability of a Coupled AOGCM. |
title_full |
Estimating the Decadal Predictability of a Coupled AOGCM. |
title_fullStr |
Estimating the Decadal Predictability of a Coupled AOGCM. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating the Decadal Predictability of a Coupled AOGCM. |
title_sort |
estimating the decadal predictability of a coupled aogcm. |
publisher |
AMS (American Meteorological Society) |
publishDate |
2004 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/1616/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/1616/1/3209.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/3209.1 |
geographic |
Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean |
genre |
Nordic Seas North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Nordic Seas North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/1616/1/3209.pdf Pohlmann, H., Botzet, M., Latif, M. , Roesch, A., Wild, M. and Tschuck, P. (2004) Estimating the Decadal Predictability of a Coupled AOGCM. Open Access Journal of Climate, 17 (22). pp. 4463-4472. DOI 10.1175/3209.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/3209.1>. doi:10.1175/3209.1 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/3209.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
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17 |
container_issue |
22 |
container_start_page |
4463 |
op_container_end_page |
4472 |
_version_ |
1811641549465845760 |