Tropical impact on the East Asian winter monsoon
The tropical impact on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is examined in an ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model runs that use relaxation towards the ERA-40 reanalysis in the tropics for winters between 1960/61 and 2001/02 and performed with a recent version of the European Centre for...
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AGU (American Geophysical Union)
2012
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:15140 2023-05-15T18:17:24+02:00 Tropical impact on the East Asian winter monsoon Gollan, Gereon Greatbatch, Richard John Jung, Thomas 2012 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/15140/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/15140/1/2012GL052978.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052978 en eng AGU (American Geophysical Union) https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/15140/1/2012GL052978.pdf Gollan, G. , Greatbatch, R. J. and Jung, T. (2012) Tropical impact on the East Asian winter monsoon. Open Access Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (17). L17801. DOI 10.1029/2012GL052978 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052978>. doi:10.1029/2012GL052978 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Article PeerReviewed 2012 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052978 2023-04-07T15:04:57Z The tropical impact on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is examined in an ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model runs that use relaxation towards the ERA-40 reanalysis in the tropics for winters between 1960/61 and 2001/02 and performed with a recent version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model. 25% of the interannual variance of the EAWM can be reproduced in the ensemble mean by the model experiments with relaxation, even though the influence from ENSO appears to be weak. The implication is that there is the possibility of enhanced predictability for the EAWM resulting from improved forecast skill in the tropics as a whole. Prescribing observed sea surface temperature and sea ice without using relaxation cannot reproduce the interannual variability of the EAWM in our experiments, questioning the usefulness of uncoupled atmosphere models in this region, consistent with previous studies. Key Points: - Tropical impact on interannual variability of the East Asian winter monsoon. - Tropical influence and extratropical SST and sea-ice matter for the trend. - AGCMs driven only by observed SST and sea-ice give poor results. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Geophysical Research Letters 39 17 n/a n/a |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
op_collection_id |
ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
The tropical impact on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is examined in an ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model runs that use relaxation towards the ERA-40 reanalysis in the tropics for winters between 1960/61 and 2001/02 and performed with a recent version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model. 25% of the interannual variance of the EAWM can be reproduced in the ensemble mean by the model experiments with relaxation, even though the influence from ENSO appears to be weak. The implication is that there is the possibility of enhanced predictability for the EAWM resulting from improved forecast skill in the tropics as a whole. Prescribing observed sea surface temperature and sea ice without using relaxation cannot reproduce the interannual variability of the EAWM in our experiments, questioning the usefulness of uncoupled atmosphere models in this region, consistent with previous studies. Key Points: - Tropical impact on interannual variability of the East Asian winter monsoon. - Tropical influence and extratropical SST and sea-ice matter for the trend. - AGCMs driven only by observed SST and sea-ice give poor results. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gollan, Gereon Greatbatch, Richard John Jung, Thomas |
spellingShingle |
Gollan, Gereon Greatbatch, Richard John Jung, Thomas Tropical impact on the East Asian winter monsoon |
author_facet |
Gollan, Gereon Greatbatch, Richard John Jung, Thomas |
author_sort |
Gollan, Gereon |
title |
Tropical impact on the East Asian winter monsoon |
title_short |
Tropical impact on the East Asian winter monsoon |
title_full |
Tropical impact on the East Asian winter monsoon |
title_fullStr |
Tropical impact on the East Asian winter monsoon |
title_full_unstemmed |
Tropical impact on the East Asian winter monsoon |
title_sort |
tropical impact on the east asian winter monsoon |
publisher |
AGU (American Geophysical Union) |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/15140/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/15140/1/2012GL052978.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052978 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/15140/1/2012GL052978.pdf Gollan, G. , Greatbatch, R. J. and Jung, T. (2012) Tropical impact on the East Asian winter monsoon. Open Access Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (17). L17801. DOI 10.1029/2012GL052978 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052978>. doi:10.1029/2012GL052978 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052978 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
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39 |
container_issue |
17 |
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1766191599044263936 |