On the possible long-term fate of oil released in the Deepwater Horizon incident, estimated using ensembles of dye release simulations
We have conducted an ensemble of 20 simulations using a high resolution global ocean model in which dye was continuously injected at the site of the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig for two months. We then extended these simulations for another four months to track the dispersal of the dye in the mode...
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ftoceanrep:oai:oceanrep.geomar.de:10062 2023-05-15T17:40:23+02:00 On the possible long-term fate of oil released in the Deepwater Horizon incident, estimated using ensembles of dye release simulations Maltrud, Mathew Peacock, Synte Visbeck, Martin 2010 text https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/10062/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/10062/1/1748-9326_5_3_035301.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/035301 en eng IOP https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/10062/1/1748-9326_5_3_035301.pdf Maltrud, M., Peacock, S. and Visbeck, M. (2010) On the possible long-term fate of oil released in the Deepwater Horizon incident, estimated using ensembles of dye release simulations. Open Access Environmental Research Letters, 5 (3). 035301. DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/035301 <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326%2F5%2F3%2F035301>. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/035301 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Article PeerReviewed 2010 ftoceanrep https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/035301 2023-04-07T14:57:56Z We have conducted an ensemble of 20 simulations using a high resolution global ocean model in which dye was continuously injected at the site of the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig for two months. We then extended these simulations for another four months to track the dispersal of the dye in the model. We have also performed five simulations in which dye was continuously injected at the site of the spill for four months and then run them out to one year from the initial spill date. The experiments can elucidate the approximate timescales and space scales of dispersal of polluted waters and also give a quantitative estimate of the dilution rate. Given the uncertainty in rates of chemical or biological degradation for oil or an oil–dispersant mixture, we do not include a decay term for the dye. Thus, these results should be considered an absolute upper bound on the possible spatial extent of the dispersal of oil or oil–dispersant mixture. The model results indicate that it is likely that oil-polluted waters from the Deepwater Horizon incident will, at some time over the six months following the initial spill date, be transported at relatively low concentrations over a significant part of the North-West Atlantic Ocean. However, this does not imply that oil will reach the eastern shores of North America, or that it will even be detectable. We present probabilities for the transport timescales and estimates of ensemble mean arrival times, and we briefly discuss the likely dispersion timescales and pathways of dye released in the subsurface ocean. Article in Journal/Newspaper North West Atlantic OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) Environmental Research Letters 5 3 035301 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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OceanRep (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre für Ocean Research Kiel) |
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ftoceanrep |
language |
English |
description |
We have conducted an ensemble of 20 simulations using a high resolution global ocean model in which dye was continuously injected at the site of the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig for two months. We then extended these simulations for another four months to track the dispersal of the dye in the model. We have also performed five simulations in which dye was continuously injected at the site of the spill for four months and then run them out to one year from the initial spill date. The experiments can elucidate the approximate timescales and space scales of dispersal of polluted waters and also give a quantitative estimate of the dilution rate. Given the uncertainty in rates of chemical or biological degradation for oil or an oil–dispersant mixture, we do not include a decay term for the dye. Thus, these results should be considered an absolute upper bound on the possible spatial extent of the dispersal of oil or oil–dispersant mixture. The model results indicate that it is likely that oil-polluted waters from the Deepwater Horizon incident will, at some time over the six months following the initial spill date, be transported at relatively low concentrations over a significant part of the North-West Atlantic Ocean. However, this does not imply that oil will reach the eastern shores of North America, or that it will even be detectable. We present probabilities for the transport timescales and estimates of ensemble mean arrival times, and we briefly discuss the likely dispersion timescales and pathways of dye released in the subsurface ocean. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Maltrud, Mathew Peacock, Synte Visbeck, Martin |
spellingShingle |
Maltrud, Mathew Peacock, Synte Visbeck, Martin On the possible long-term fate of oil released in the Deepwater Horizon incident, estimated using ensembles of dye release simulations |
author_facet |
Maltrud, Mathew Peacock, Synte Visbeck, Martin |
author_sort |
Maltrud, Mathew |
title |
On the possible long-term fate of oil released in the Deepwater Horizon incident, estimated using ensembles of dye release simulations |
title_short |
On the possible long-term fate of oil released in the Deepwater Horizon incident, estimated using ensembles of dye release simulations |
title_full |
On the possible long-term fate of oil released in the Deepwater Horizon incident, estimated using ensembles of dye release simulations |
title_fullStr |
On the possible long-term fate of oil released in the Deepwater Horizon incident, estimated using ensembles of dye release simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
On the possible long-term fate of oil released in the Deepwater Horizon incident, estimated using ensembles of dye release simulations |
title_sort |
on the possible long-term fate of oil released in the deepwater horizon incident, estimated using ensembles of dye release simulations |
publisher |
IOP |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/10062/ https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/10062/1/1748-9326_5_3_035301.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/035301 |
genre |
North West Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North West Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/10062/1/1748-9326_5_3_035301.pdf Maltrud, M., Peacock, S. and Visbeck, M. (2010) On the possible long-term fate of oil released in the Deepwater Horizon incident, estimated using ensembles of dye release simulations. Open Access Environmental Research Letters, 5 (3). 035301. DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/035301 <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326%2F5%2F3%2F035301>. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/035301 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/035301 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
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5 |
container_issue |
3 |
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035301 |
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1766141290924212224 |