Poleward Transport Variability in the Northern Hemisphere during Final Stratospheric Warmings simulated by CESM(WACCM)
International audience Observational studies of Arctic stratospheric final warmings have shown that tropical/subtropical air masses can be advected to high latitudes and remain confined within a long-lived "frozen-in" anticyclone (FrIAC) for several months. It was suggested that the freque...
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ftobservparis:oai:HAL:insu-01663286v1 2024-09-15T18:02:34+00:00 Poleward Transport Variability in the Northern Hemisphere during Final Stratospheric Warmings simulated by CESM(WACCM) Thiéblemont, Rémi Matthes, Katja Orsolini, Yvan, J Hauchecorne, Alain Huret, Nathalie STRATO - LATMOS Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR) Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) Laboratoire de Physique et Chimie de l'Environnement et de l'Espace (LPC2E) Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers en région Centre (OSUC) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de Paris Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université d'Orléans (UO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de Paris Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université d'Orléans (UO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National d’Études Spatiales Paris (CNES) Vienna, Austria 2017-04 https://insu.hal.science/insu-01663286 en eng HAL CCSD insu-01663286 https://insu.hal.science/insu-01663286 BIBCODE: 2017EGUGA.1914764T 19th EGU General Assembly, EGU2017 https://insu.hal.science/insu-01663286 19th EGU General Assembly, EGU2017, Apr 2017, Vienna, Austria [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject Conference papers 2017 ftobservparis 2024-06-25T00:05:42Z International audience Observational studies of Arctic stratospheric final warmings have shown that tropical/subtropical air masses can be advected to high latitudes and remain confined within a long-lived "frozen-in" anticyclone (FrIAC) for several months. It was suggested that the frequency of FrIACs may have increased since 2000 and that their interannual variability may be modulated by (i) the occurrence of major stratospheric warmings (mSSWs) in the preceding winter and (ii) the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). In this study, we tested these observational-based hypotheses for the first time using a chemistry-climate model. Three 145-year sensitivity experiments were performed with the National Center of Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model (CESM): one control experiment including only natural variability, one with an extreme greenhouse gas emission scenario, and one without the QBO in the tropical stratosphere. In comparison with reanalysis, the model simulates a realistic frequency and characteristics of FrIACs, which occur under an abrupt and early winter-to-summer stratospheric circulation transition, driven by enhanced planetary wave activity. Furthermore, the model results support the suggestion that the development of FrIACs is favored by an easterly QBO in the middle stratosphere and by the absence of mSSWs during the preceding winter. The lower stratospheric persistence of background dynamical state anomalies induced by deep mSSWs leads to less favorable conditions for planetary waves to enter the high-latitude stratosphere in April, which in turn decreases the probability of FrIAC development. Our model results do not suggest that climate change conditions (RCP8.5 scenario) influence FrIAC occurrences. Conference Object Climate change Archive de l'Observatoire de Paris (HAL) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Archive de l'Observatoire de Paris (HAL) |
op_collection_id |
ftobservparis |
language |
English |
topic |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] |
spellingShingle |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] Thiéblemont, Rémi Matthes, Katja Orsolini, Yvan, J Hauchecorne, Alain Huret, Nathalie Poleward Transport Variability in the Northern Hemisphere during Final Stratospheric Warmings simulated by CESM(WACCM) |
topic_facet |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] |
description |
International audience Observational studies of Arctic stratospheric final warmings have shown that tropical/subtropical air masses can be advected to high latitudes and remain confined within a long-lived "frozen-in" anticyclone (FrIAC) for several months. It was suggested that the frequency of FrIACs may have increased since 2000 and that their interannual variability may be modulated by (i) the occurrence of major stratospheric warmings (mSSWs) in the preceding winter and (ii) the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). In this study, we tested these observational-based hypotheses for the first time using a chemistry-climate model. Three 145-year sensitivity experiments were performed with the National Center of Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model (CESM): one control experiment including only natural variability, one with an extreme greenhouse gas emission scenario, and one without the QBO in the tropical stratosphere. In comparison with reanalysis, the model simulates a realistic frequency and characteristics of FrIACs, which occur under an abrupt and early winter-to-summer stratospheric circulation transition, driven by enhanced planetary wave activity. Furthermore, the model results support the suggestion that the development of FrIACs is favored by an easterly QBO in the middle stratosphere and by the absence of mSSWs during the preceding winter. The lower stratospheric persistence of background dynamical state anomalies induced by deep mSSWs leads to less favorable conditions for planetary waves to enter the high-latitude stratosphere in April, which in turn decreases the probability of FrIAC development. Our model results do not suggest that climate change conditions (RCP8.5 scenario) influence FrIAC occurrences. |
author2 |
STRATO - LATMOS Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR) Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) Laboratoire de Physique et Chimie de l'Environnement et de l'Espace (LPC2E) Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers en région Centre (OSUC) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de Paris Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université d'Orléans (UO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de Paris Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université d'Orléans (UO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National d’Études Spatiales Paris (CNES) |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Thiéblemont, Rémi Matthes, Katja Orsolini, Yvan, J Hauchecorne, Alain Huret, Nathalie |
author_facet |
Thiéblemont, Rémi Matthes, Katja Orsolini, Yvan, J Hauchecorne, Alain Huret, Nathalie |
author_sort |
Thiéblemont, Rémi |
title |
Poleward Transport Variability in the Northern Hemisphere during Final Stratospheric Warmings simulated by CESM(WACCM) |
title_short |
Poleward Transport Variability in the Northern Hemisphere during Final Stratospheric Warmings simulated by CESM(WACCM) |
title_full |
Poleward Transport Variability in the Northern Hemisphere during Final Stratospheric Warmings simulated by CESM(WACCM) |
title_fullStr |
Poleward Transport Variability in the Northern Hemisphere during Final Stratospheric Warmings simulated by CESM(WACCM) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Poleward Transport Variability in the Northern Hemisphere during Final Stratospheric Warmings simulated by CESM(WACCM) |
title_sort |
poleward transport variability in the northern hemisphere during final stratospheric warmings simulated by cesm(waccm) |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://insu.hal.science/insu-01663286 |
op_coverage |
Vienna, Austria |
genre |
Climate change |
genre_facet |
Climate change |
op_source |
19th EGU General Assembly, EGU2017 https://insu.hal.science/insu-01663286 19th EGU General Assembly, EGU2017, Apr 2017, Vienna, Austria |
op_relation |
insu-01663286 https://insu.hal.science/insu-01663286 BIBCODE: 2017EGUGA.1914764T |
_version_ |
1810440009883320320 |