Development of a stock-recruit model for simulating stock dynamics for uncertain situations: the example of northeast atlantic mackerel (scomber scombrus)
The assumption of a relationship between recruitment and a spawning stock is the cornerstone of the precautionary approach and may constrain the use of a maximum sustainable yield (MSY) target for fisheries management, because the failure to include such a relationship suggests that providing a meas...
Main Authors: | , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
Oxford University Press (OUP)
2011
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10379/13916 https://doi.org/10.13025/28049 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr014 |
id |
ftnuigalway:oai:https://researchrepository.universityofgalway.ie:10379/13916 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftnuigalway:oai:https://researchrepository.universityofgalway.ie:10379/13916 2024-09-30T14:40:01+00:00 Development of a stock-recruit model for simulating stock dynamics for uncertain situations: the example of northeast atlantic mackerel (scomber scombrus) Simmonds, E. J. Campbell, A. Skagen, D. Roel, B. A. Kelly, C. 2011-04-12 http://hdl.handle.net/10379/13916 https://doi.org/10.13025/28049 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr014 unknown Oxford University Press (OUP) ICES Journal of Marine Science Simmonds, E. J. Campbell, A.; Skagen, D.; Roel, B. A.; Kelly, C. (2011). Development of a stock-recruit model for simulating stock dynamics for uncertain situations: the example of northeast atlantic mackerel (scomber scombrus). ICES Journal of Marine Science 68 (5), 848-859 1054-3139,1095-9289 http://hdl.handle.net/10379/13916 https://doi.org/10.13025/28049 doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr014 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Ireland https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ie/ fisheries management model probability stock-recruit relationship population-dynamics fish recruitment climate-change regime shifts management ecosystem fisheries sea strategy proposal Article 2011 ftnuigalway https://doi.org/10.13025/2804910.1093/icesjms/fsr014 2024-09-17T14:44:30Z The assumption of a relationship between recruitment and a spawning stock is the cornerstone of the precautionary approach and may constrain the use of a maximum sustainable yield (MSY) target for fisheries management, because the failure to include such a relationship suggests that providing a measure of stock protection is unnecessary. The implications of fitting different functional forms and stochastic distributions to stock-and-recruit data are investigated. The importance of these considerations is shown by taking a practical example from management: the management plan for Northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus), a fish stock with an average annual catch of 600 000 t. The historical range of spawning-stock biomass is narrow, and historical data from a stock assessment explain only a small proportion of the recruitment variability. We investigate how best to reflect the uncertainty in the stock-recruit relationship. Selecting a single model based on simple statistical criteria can have major consequences for advice and is problematic. Selecting a distribution of models with derived probabilities gives a more complete perception of uncertainty in dynamics. Differences in functional form, distribution of deviations, and variability of coefficients are allowed. The approach appropriately incorporates uncertainty in the stock-recruit relationship for F-MSY estimation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Northeast Atlantic National University of Ireland (NUI), Galway: ARAN |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
National University of Ireland (NUI), Galway: ARAN |
op_collection_id |
ftnuigalway |
language |
unknown |
topic |
fisheries management model probability stock-recruit relationship population-dynamics fish recruitment climate-change regime shifts management ecosystem fisheries sea strategy proposal |
spellingShingle |
fisheries management model probability stock-recruit relationship population-dynamics fish recruitment climate-change regime shifts management ecosystem fisheries sea strategy proposal Simmonds, E. J. Campbell, A. Skagen, D. Roel, B. A. Kelly, C. Development of a stock-recruit model for simulating stock dynamics for uncertain situations: the example of northeast atlantic mackerel (scomber scombrus) |
topic_facet |
fisheries management model probability stock-recruit relationship population-dynamics fish recruitment climate-change regime shifts management ecosystem fisheries sea strategy proposal |
description |
The assumption of a relationship between recruitment and a spawning stock is the cornerstone of the precautionary approach and may constrain the use of a maximum sustainable yield (MSY) target for fisheries management, because the failure to include such a relationship suggests that providing a measure of stock protection is unnecessary. The implications of fitting different functional forms and stochastic distributions to stock-and-recruit data are investigated. The importance of these considerations is shown by taking a practical example from management: the management plan for Northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus), a fish stock with an average annual catch of 600 000 t. The historical range of spawning-stock biomass is narrow, and historical data from a stock assessment explain only a small proportion of the recruitment variability. We investigate how best to reflect the uncertainty in the stock-recruit relationship. Selecting a single model based on simple statistical criteria can have major consequences for advice and is problematic. Selecting a distribution of models with derived probabilities gives a more complete perception of uncertainty in dynamics. Differences in functional form, distribution of deviations, and variability of coefficients are allowed. The approach appropriately incorporates uncertainty in the stock-recruit relationship for F-MSY estimation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Simmonds, E. J. Campbell, A. Skagen, D. Roel, B. A. Kelly, C. |
author_facet |
Simmonds, E. J. Campbell, A. Skagen, D. Roel, B. A. Kelly, C. |
author_sort |
Simmonds, E. J. |
title |
Development of a stock-recruit model for simulating stock dynamics for uncertain situations: the example of northeast atlantic mackerel (scomber scombrus) |
title_short |
Development of a stock-recruit model for simulating stock dynamics for uncertain situations: the example of northeast atlantic mackerel (scomber scombrus) |
title_full |
Development of a stock-recruit model for simulating stock dynamics for uncertain situations: the example of northeast atlantic mackerel (scomber scombrus) |
title_fullStr |
Development of a stock-recruit model for simulating stock dynamics for uncertain situations: the example of northeast atlantic mackerel (scomber scombrus) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Development of a stock-recruit model for simulating stock dynamics for uncertain situations: the example of northeast atlantic mackerel (scomber scombrus) |
title_sort |
development of a stock-recruit model for simulating stock dynamics for uncertain situations: the example of northeast atlantic mackerel (scomber scombrus) |
publisher |
Oxford University Press (OUP) |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10379/13916 https://doi.org/10.13025/28049 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr014 |
genre |
Northeast Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Northeast Atlantic |
op_relation |
ICES Journal of Marine Science Simmonds, E. J. Campbell, A.; Skagen, D.; Roel, B. A.; Kelly, C. (2011). Development of a stock-recruit model for simulating stock dynamics for uncertain situations: the example of northeast atlantic mackerel (scomber scombrus). ICES Journal of Marine Science 68 (5), 848-859 1054-3139,1095-9289 http://hdl.handle.net/10379/13916 https://doi.org/10.13025/28049 doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr014 |
op_rights |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Ireland https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ie/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.13025/2804910.1093/icesjms/fsr014 |
_version_ |
1811642571130142720 |