Climate change, marine resources and a small Chilean community: making the connections
Climate change is affecting large-scale oceanic processes. How and when these changes will impact those reliant on marine resources is not yet clear. Here we use end-to-end modeling to track the impacts of expected changes through the marine ecosystem on a specific, small community: Cochamó, in the...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2978506 https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13934 |
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ftntnutrondheimi:oai:ntnuopen.ntnu.no:11250/2978506 2023-05-15T17:51:38+02:00 Climate change, marine resources and a small Chilean community: making the connections van Leeuwen, Sonja M. Salgado, Hugo Bailey, Jennifer L. Beecham, Jonathan Iriarte, José L. García-García, Luz Thorpe, Robert 2021 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2978506 https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13934 eng eng Inter Research Marine Ecology Progress Series. 2021, 680 223-246. urn:issn:0171-8630 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2978506 https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13934 cristin:1969064 Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no CC-BY 223-246 680 Marine Ecology Progress Series Peer reviewed Journal article 2021 ftntnutrondheimi https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13934 2022-02-16T23:38:03Z Climate change is affecting large-scale oceanic processes. How and when these changes will impact those reliant on marine resources is not yet clear. Here we use end-to-end modeling to track the impacts of expected changes through the marine ecosystem on a specific, small community: Cochamó, in the Gulf of Ancud wider area, Chile. This area is important for Chilean fisheries and aquaculture, with Cochamó reliant on both lower and upper trophic level marine resources. We applied the GOTM-ERSEM-BFM coupled hydro-biogeochemical watercolumn model to gauge lower-trophic level marine ecological community response to bottom-up stressors (climate change, ocean acidification), coupled to an existing Ecopath with Ecosim model for the area, which included top-down stressors (fishing). Social scientists also used participatory modeling (Systems Thinking and Bayesian Belief Networking) to identify key resources for Cochamó residents and to assess the community’s vulnerability to possible changes in key resources. Modeling results suggest that flagellate phytoplankton abundance will increase at the cost of other species (particularly diatoms), resulting in a greater risk of harmful algae blooms. Both climate change and acidification slightly increased primary production in the model. Higher trophic level results indicate that some targeted pelagic resources will decline (while benthic ones may benefit), but that these effects might be mitigated by strong fisheries management efforts. Participatory modeling suggests that Cochamó inhabitants anticipate marine ecosystem changes but are divided about possible adaptation strategies. For climate change impact quantification, detailed experimental studies are recommended based on the dominant threats identified here, with specific local species. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Ocean acidification NTNU Open Archive (Norwegian University of Science and Technology) Marine Ecology Progress Series 680 223 246 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
NTNU Open Archive (Norwegian University of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
ftntnutrondheimi |
language |
English |
description |
Climate change is affecting large-scale oceanic processes. How and when these changes will impact those reliant on marine resources is not yet clear. Here we use end-to-end modeling to track the impacts of expected changes through the marine ecosystem on a specific, small community: Cochamó, in the Gulf of Ancud wider area, Chile. This area is important for Chilean fisheries and aquaculture, with Cochamó reliant on both lower and upper trophic level marine resources. We applied the GOTM-ERSEM-BFM coupled hydro-biogeochemical watercolumn model to gauge lower-trophic level marine ecological community response to bottom-up stressors (climate change, ocean acidification), coupled to an existing Ecopath with Ecosim model for the area, which included top-down stressors (fishing). Social scientists also used participatory modeling (Systems Thinking and Bayesian Belief Networking) to identify key resources for Cochamó residents and to assess the community’s vulnerability to possible changes in key resources. Modeling results suggest that flagellate phytoplankton abundance will increase at the cost of other species (particularly diatoms), resulting in a greater risk of harmful algae blooms. Both climate change and acidification slightly increased primary production in the model. Higher trophic level results indicate that some targeted pelagic resources will decline (while benthic ones may benefit), but that these effects might be mitigated by strong fisheries management efforts. Participatory modeling suggests that Cochamó inhabitants anticipate marine ecosystem changes but are divided about possible adaptation strategies. For climate change impact quantification, detailed experimental studies are recommended based on the dominant threats identified here, with specific local species. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
van Leeuwen, Sonja M. Salgado, Hugo Bailey, Jennifer L. Beecham, Jonathan Iriarte, José L. García-García, Luz Thorpe, Robert |
spellingShingle |
van Leeuwen, Sonja M. Salgado, Hugo Bailey, Jennifer L. Beecham, Jonathan Iriarte, José L. García-García, Luz Thorpe, Robert Climate change, marine resources and a small Chilean community: making the connections |
author_facet |
van Leeuwen, Sonja M. Salgado, Hugo Bailey, Jennifer L. Beecham, Jonathan Iriarte, José L. García-García, Luz Thorpe, Robert |
author_sort |
van Leeuwen, Sonja M. |
title |
Climate change, marine resources and a small Chilean community: making the connections |
title_short |
Climate change, marine resources and a small Chilean community: making the connections |
title_full |
Climate change, marine resources and a small Chilean community: making the connections |
title_fullStr |
Climate change, marine resources and a small Chilean community: making the connections |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change, marine resources and a small Chilean community: making the connections |
title_sort |
climate change, marine resources and a small chilean community: making the connections |
publisher |
Inter Research |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2978506 https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13934 |
genre |
Ocean acidification |
genre_facet |
Ocean acidification |
op_source |
223-246 680 Marine Ecology Progress Series |
op_relation |
Marine Ecology Progress Series. 2021, 680 223-246. urn:issn:0171-8630 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2978506 https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13934 cristin:1969064 |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13934 |
container_title |
Marine Ecology Progress Series |
container_volume |
680 |
container_start_page |
223 |
op_container_end_page |
246 |
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1766158836153974784 |