The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer
Arctic ungulates are experiencing the most rapid climate warming on Earth. While concerns have been raised that more frequent icing events may cause die-offs, and earlier springs may generate a trophic mismatch in phenology, the effects of warming autumns have been largely neglected. We used 25 year...
Published in: | Global Change Biology |
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2726842 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15458 |
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ftntnutrondheimi:oai:ntnuopen.ntnu.no:11250/2726842 2023-05-15T14:50:23+02:00 The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer Loe, Leif Egil Liston, Glen E. Pigeon, Gabriel Barker, Kristin Horvitz, Nir Stien, Audun Forchhammer, Mads C. Getz, Wayne M. Irvine, Robert Justin Lee, Aline Magdalena Movik, Lars K. Mysterud, Atle Pedersen, Åshild Ønvik Reinking, Adele K. Ropstad, Erik Trondrud, Liv Monica Tveraa, Torkild Veiberg, Vebjørn Hansen, Brage Bremset Albon, Steve D. 2020 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2726842 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15458 eng eng Wiley Norges forskningsråd: 267613 urn:issn:1354-1013 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2726842 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15458 cristin:1860727 Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no CC-BY Global Change Biology Peer reviewed Journal article 2020 ftntnutrondheimi https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15458 2021-02-10T23:35:01Z Arctic ungulates are experiencing the most rapid climate warming on Earth. While concerns have been raised that more frequent icing events may cause die-offs, and earlier springs may generate a trophic mismatch in phenology, the effects of warming autumns have been largely neglected. We used 25 years of individual-based data from a growing population of wild Svalbard reindeer, to test how warmer autumns enhance population growth. Delayed plant senescence had no effect, but a six-week delay in snow-onset (the observed data range) was estimated to increase late winter body mass by 10%. Because average late winter body mass explains 90% of the variation in population growth rates, such a delay in winter-onset would enable a population growth of r = 0.20, sufficient to counteract all but the most extreme icing events. This study provides novel mechanistic insights into the consequences of climate change for Arctic herbivores, highlighting the positive impact of warming autumns on population viability, offsetting the impacts of harsher winters. Thus, the future for Arctic herbivores facing climate change may be brighter than the prevailing view. body mass, climate change, fitness, GPS, movement ecology, plant phenology, Rangifer, snow, space use, ungulates publishedVersion © 2020 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Svalbard svalbard reindeer NTNU Open Archive (Norwegian University of Science and Technology) Arctic Svalbard Global Change Biology 27 5 993 1002 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
NTNU Open Archive (Norwegian University of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
ftntnutrondheimi |
language |
English |
description |
Arctic ungulates are experiencing the most rapid climate warming on Earth. While concerns have been raised that more frequent icing events may cause die-offs, and earlier springs may generate a trophic mismatch in phenology, the effects of warming autumns have been largely neglected. We used 25 years of individual-based data from a growing population of wild Svalbard reindeer, to test how warmer autumns enhance population growth. Delayed plant senescence had no effect, but a six-week delay in snow-onset (the observed data range) was estimated to increase late winter body mass by 10%. Because average late winter body mass explains 90% of the variation in population growth rates, such a delay in winter-onset would enable a population growth of r = 0.20, sufficient to counteract all but the most extreme icing events. This study provides novel mechanistic insights into the consequences of climate change for Arctic herbivores, highlighting the positive impact of warming autumns on population viability, offsetting the impacts of harsher winters. Thus, the future for Arctic herbivores facing climate change may be brighter than the prevailing view. body mass, climate change, fitness, GPS, movement ecology, plant phenology, Rangifer, snow, space use, ungulates publishedVersion © 2020 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Loe, Leif Egil Liston, Glen E. Pigeon, Gabriel Barker, Kristin Horvitz, Nir Stien, Audun Forchhammer, Mads C. Getz, Wayne M. Irvine, Robert Justin Lee, Aline Magdalena Movik, Lars K. Mysterud, Atle Pedersen, Åshild Ønvik Reinking, Adele K. Ropstad, Erik Trondrud, Liv Monica Tveraa, Torkild Veiberg, Vebjørn Hansen, Brage Bremset Albon, Steve D. |
spellingShingle |
Loe, Leif Egil Liston, Glen E. Pigeon, Gabriel Barker, Kristin Horvitz, Nir Stien, Audun Forchhammer, Mads C. Getz, Wayne M. Irvine, Robert Justin Lee, Aline Magdalena Movik, Lars K. Mysterud, Atle Pedersen, Åshild Ønvik Reinking, Adele K. Ropstad, Erik Trondrud, Liv Monica Tveraa, Torkild Veiberg, Vebjørn Hansen, Brage Bremset Albon, Steve D. The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer |
author_facet |
Loe, Leif Egil Liston, Glen E. Pigeon, Gabriel Barker, Kristin Horvitz, Nir Stien, Audun Forchhammer, Mads C. Getz, Wayne M. Irvine, Robert Justin Lee, Aline Magdalena Movik, Lars K. Mysterud, Atle Pedersen, Åshild Ønvik Reinking, Adele K. Ropstad, Erik Trondrud, Liv Monica Tveraa, Torkild Veiberg, Vebjørn Hansen, Brage Bremset Albon, Steve D. |
author_sort |
Loe, Leif Egil |
title |
The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer |
title_short |
The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer |
title_full |
The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer |
title_fullStr |
The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer |
title_full_unstemmed |
The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer |
title_sort |
neglected season: warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in arctic reindeer |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2726842 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15458 |
geographic |
Arctic Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Svalbard |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Svalbard svalbard reindeer |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Svalbard svalbard reindeer |
op_source |
Global Change Biology |
op_relation |
Norges forskningsråd: 267613 urn:issn:1354-1013 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2726842 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15458 cristin:1860727 |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15458 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
27 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
993 |
op_container_end_page |
1002 |
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1766321421338804224 |