An estimation-forecast set-up for iceberg drift prediction
Iceberg drift forecasting is challenging. Large uncertainties in iceberg geometry and in iceberg driving forces – current, wind and waves – make accurate forecasts difficult. In this work, a new estimation-forecast scheme is proposed that improves iceberg drift forecasts by using past iceberg drift...
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ftntnutrondheimi:oai:ntnuopen.ntnu.no:11250/2407047 2023-05-15T17:22:20+02:00 An estimation-forecast set-up for iceberg drift prediction Andersson, Leif Erik Scibilia, Francesco Imsland, Lars Struen 2016-09-12T15:16:10Z application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2407047 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2016.08.001 eng eng Elsevier http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165232X16301434 Cold Regions Science and Technology 2016 urn:issn:0165-232X http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2407047 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2016.08.001 cristin:1380498 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no CC-BY-NC-ND Cold Regions Science and Technology Journal article Peer reviewed 2016 ftntnutrondheimi https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2016.08.001 2023-03-08T23:43:55Z Iceberg drift forecasting is challenging. Large uncertainties in iceberg geometry and in iceberg driving forces – current, wind and waves – make accurate forecasts difficult. In this work, a new estimation-forecast scheme is proposed that improves iceberg drift forecasts by using past iceberg drift information to reduce uncertainties. Which of the most uncertain parameters to adjust in order to reduce uncertainties, is guided by simple criteria that are introduced and explained. These criteria are applied to different iceberg drift estimation models and a new parameter estimation process is proposed and implemented in the form of a moving horizon estimator. Different performance indices are introduced to evaluate estimation and forecast performance of the proposed set-up. The set-up is tested in a case study on two iceberg drift trajectories surveyed during a research expedition offshore Newfoundland in 2015. The results indicate that the quality of iceberg drift forecasts improve significantly for short-term forecasts, whereas the improvements are smaller for longer forecasts. Moreover, it is demonstrated that the proposed set-up is superior to solutions based on adjustments of the drag coefficients. acceptedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Newfoundland NTNU Open Archive (Norwegian University of Science and Technology) Cold Regions Science and Technology 131 88 107 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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NTNU Open Archive (Norwegian University of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
ftntnutrondheimi |
language |
English |
description |
Iceberg drift forecasting is challenging. Large uncertainties in iceberg geometry and in iceberg driving forces – current, wind and waves – make accurate forecasts difficult. In this work, a new estimation-forecast scheme is proposed that improves iceberg drift forecasts by using past iceberg drift information to reduce uncertainties. Which of the most uncertain parameters to adjust in order to reduce uncertainties, is guided by simple criteria that are introduced and explained. These criteria are applied to different iceberg drift estimation models and a new parameter estimation process is proposed and implemented in the form of a moving horizon estimator. Different performance indices are introduced to evaluate estimation and forecast performance of the proposed set-up. The set-up is tested in a case study on two iceberg drift trajectories surveyed during a research expedition offshore Newfoundland in 2015. The results indicate that the quality of iceberg drift forecasts improve significantly for short-term forecasts, whereas the improvements are smaller for longer forecasts. Moreover, it is demonstrated that the proposed set-up is superior to solutions based on adjustments of the drag coefficients. acceptedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Andersson, Leif Erik Scibilia, Francesco Imsland, Lars Struen |
spellingShingle |
Andersson, Leif Erik Scibilia, Francesco Imsland, Lars Struen An estimation-forecast set-up for iceberg drift prediction |
author_facet |
Andersson, Leif Erik Scibilia, Francesco Imsland, Lars Struen |
author_sort |
Andersson, Leif Erik |
title |
An estimation-forecast set-up for iceberg drift prediction |
title_short |
An estimation-forecast set-up for iceberg drift prediction |
title_full |
An estimation-forecast set-up for iceberg drift prediction |
title_fullStr |
An estimation-forecast set-up for iceberg drift prediction |
title_full_unstemmed |
An estimation-forecast set-up for iceberg drift prediction |
title_sort |
estimation-forecast set-up for iceberg drift prediction |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2407047 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2016.08.001 |
genre |
Newfoundland |
genre_facet |
Newfoundland |
op_source |
Cold Regions Science and Technology |
op_relation |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165232X16301434 Cold Regions Science and Technology 2016 urn:issn:0165-232X http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2407047 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2016.08.001 cristin:1380498 |
op_rights |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC-ND |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2016.08.001 |
container_title |
Cold Regions Science and Technology |
container_volume |
131 |
container_start_page |
88 |
op_container_end_page |
107 |
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1766108924633677824 |