Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming onbody mass explain population dynamics in a food-limitedArctic herbivore
The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Converse...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2404234 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13435 |
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ftntnutrondheimi:oai:ntnuopen.ntnu.no:11250/2404234 2023-05-15T14:58:07+02:00 Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming onbody mass explain population dynamics in a food-limitedArctic herbivore Albon, Steve D. Irvine, R. Justin Halvorsen, Odd Langvatn, Rolf Loe, Leif Egil Ropstad, Erik Veiberg, Vebjørn van der Wal, René Bjørkvoll, Eirin Marie Duff, Elizabeth I. Hansen, Brage Bremset Lee, Aline Magdalena Tveraa, Torkild Stien, Audun 2016-08-24T12:09:19Z http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2404234 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13435 eng eng Wiley Global Change Biology 2016 urn:issn:1365-2486 http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2404234 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13435 cristin:1371350 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY Global Change Biology Journal article Peer reviewed 2016 ftntnutrondheimi https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13435 2019-09-17T06:51:44Z The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain-on-snow) can cause ‘icing’, restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a ‘barometer’ of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between-year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long-term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to ‘rain-on-snow’ events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density-dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important ‘missing’ mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a keystone species in a rapidly warming Arctic. Keywords: climate change, density dependence, extreme events, icing, nutrition, primary production, Rangifer, reindeer, Svalbard, weather Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Rangifer tarandus Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus Svalbard svalbard reindeer Tundra NTNU Open Archive (Norwegian University of Science and Technology) Arctic Svalbard Global Change Biology 23 4 1374 1389 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
NTNU Open Archive (Norwegian University of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
ftntnutrondheimi |
language |
English |
description |
The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain-on-snow) can cause ‘icing’, restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a ‘barometer’ of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between-year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long-term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to ‘rain-on-snow’ events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density-dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important ‘missing’ mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a keystone species in a rapidly warming Arctic. Keywords: climate change, density dependence, extreme events, icing, nutrition, primary production, Rangifer, reindeer, Svalbard, weather Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Albon, Steve D. Irvine, R. Justin Halvorsen, Odd Langvatn, Rolf Loe, Leif Egil Ropstad, Erik Veiberg, Vebjørn van der Wal, René Bjørkvoll, Eirin Marie Duff, Elizabeth I. Hansen, Brage Bremset Lee, Aline Magdalena Tveraa, Torkild Stien, Audun |
spellingShingle |
Albon, Steve D. Irvine, R. Justin Halvorsen, Odd Langvatn, Rolf Loe, Leif Egil Ropstad, Erik Veiberg, Vebjørn van der Wal, René Bjørkvoll, Eirin Marie Duff, Elizabeth I. Hansen, Brage Bremset Lee, Aline Magdalena Tveraa, Torkild Stien, Audun Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming onbody mass explain population dynamics in a food-limitedArctic herbivore |
author_facet |
Albon, Steve D. Irvine, R. Justin Halvorsen, Odd Langvatn, Rolf Loe, Leif Egil Ropstad, Erik Veiberg, Vebjørn van der Wal, René Bjørkvoll, Eirin Marie Duff, Elizabeth I. Hansen, Brage Bremset Lee, Aline Magdalena Tveraa, Torkild Stien, Audun |
author_sort |
Albon, Steve D. |
title |
Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming onbody mass explain population dynamics in a food-limitedArctic herbivore |
title_short |
Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming onbody mass explain population dynamics in a food-limitedArctic herbivore |
title_full |
Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming onbody mass explain population dynamics in a food-limitedArctic herbivore |
title_fullStr |
Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming onbody mass explain population dynamics in a food-limitedArctic herbivore |
title_full_unstemmed |
Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming onbody mass explain population dynamics in a food-limitedArctic herbivore |
title_sort |
contrasting effects of summer and winter warming onbody mass explain population dynamics in a food-limitedarctic herbivore |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2404234 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13435 |
geographic |
Arctic Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Svalbard |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Rangifer tarandus Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus Svalbard svalbard reindeer Tundra |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Rangifer tarandus Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus Svalbard svalbard reindeer Tundra |
op_source |
Global Change Biology |
op_relation |
Global Change Biology 2016 urn:issn:1365-2486 http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2404234 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13435 cristin:1371350 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13435 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
23 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1374 |
op_container_end_page |
1389 |
_version_ |
1766330206687068160 |