泰國爆發禽流感對中國台灣與東南亞國家的經濟影響 之評估

本研究探討若泰國爆發禽流感對中國、台灣和東南亞國家的經濟影響。主要是由家禽部門之疫情來影響泰國之總體經濟。本研究利用多國可計算一般均衡模型來評估由於家禽部門疫情而影響之國際間生產、出口以及就業變化。 實證模擬分析的結果指出禽流感將會在泰國再度地爆發。家禽部門疫情將會造成泰國的實質GDP 減少0.69%~0.78%，但卻對其他國家不會造成太大的影響。又若假設每個國家爆發等同於泰國疫情程度之禽流感疫情，此時中國影響將最為嚴重，其次是越南。在此同時，台灣實質GDP 的影響卻非常小。 除此之外，禽流感疫情不但會造成一個國家產業部門的損失，且也會影響其他國家的產業，例如批發業、零售業、飼料業和食用性產品...

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Main Authors: 張鑫桂, Chang, Xin-Gui
Other Authors: 張靜貞, 臺灣大學：農業經濟學研究所
Format: Thesis
Language:English
Published: 2006
Subjects:
禽流感
GTAP 模型
多國分析
東南亞國家
經濟影響
Avian flu
computable general equilibrium model
poultry sector
international trade
Online Access:http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/246246/59053
http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/59053/1/ntu-95-R94627022-1.pdf
id ftntaiwanuniv:oai:140.112.114.62:246246/59053
record_format openpolar
institution Open Polar
collection National Taiwan University Institutional Repository (NTUR)
op_collection_id ftntaiwanuniv
language English
topic 禽流感
GTAP 模型
多國分析
東南亞國家
經濟影響
Avian flu
computable general equilibrium model
poultry sector
international trade
spellingShingle 禽流感
GTAP 模型
多國分析
東南亞國家
經濟影響
Avian flu
computable general equilibrium model
poultry sector
international trade
張鑫桂
Chang, Xin-Gui
泰國爆發禽流感對中國台灣與東南亞國家的經濟影響 之評估
topic_facet 禽流感
GTAP 模型
多國分析
東南亞國家
經濟影響
Avian flu
computable general equilibrium model
poultry sector
international trade
description 本研究探討若泰國爆發禽流感對中國、台灣和東南亞國家的經濟影響。主要是由家禽部門之疫情來影響泰國之總體經濟。本研究利用多國可計算一般均衡模型來評估由於家禽部門疫情而影響之國際間生產、出口以及就業變化。 實證模擬分析的結果指出禽流感將會在泰國再度地爆發。家禽部門疫情將會造成泰國的實質GDP 減少0.69%~0.78%，但卻對其他國家不會造成太大的影響。又若假設每個國家爆發等同於泰國疫情程度之禽流感疫情，此時中國影響將最為嚴重，其次是越南。在此同時，台灣實質GDP 的影響卻非常小。 除此之外，禽流感疫情不但會造成一個國家產業部門的損失，且也會影響其他國家的產業，例如批發業、零售業、飼料業和食用性產品。 This study discusses the socio-economic impacts of avian flu on China, Taiwan and South-East Asia countries when exploded from Thailand. The impacts on macroeconomics and Thailand’s poultry sector are the major concerns of this crisis. A multi-country computable general equilibrium model is employed to evaluate the production, export, and employment variation which took an effect together with the poultry sector. The model simulation results indicate that if the avian flu is exploded from Thailand’s poultry sector, Thailand’s real GDP would drop -0.69~-0.78% but no large effects are found in other neighboring countries except China. When the Southeast Asian countries suffer from reduced poultry exports, it will also affect China. On the other hand, when China was heavily shocked by the outbreak, it will not only take an effect to the Southeast Asia countries but also take a toll to Taiwan’s economy along with rest of the world through trade links. I. Introduction.1 1.1 Research motivation. 1 1.2 Objective. 2 1.3 Methodology. 3 II. Historical Review of Avian Flu and Government Policy Response .6 2.1 Global condition and historical review of avian flu. 6 2.2 Recent Development in Asia country. 13 2.3 Reviews on Economics and Social Impacts . 14 2.4 Background in Each Country. 24 III. A Review of the Thailand Poultry Sector.26 3.1 Production . 26 3.2 Trade . 29 3.3 Thailand collaboration with WHO. 40 IV. GTAP analysis approach.44 4.1 Model framework . 44 4.2 Theoretical structure . 45 4.3 GTAP model and related equations . 52 4.3.1 Conceptual of GTAP . 52 4.3.2 Correlation in GTAP model system. 56 V. Data and Scenario design .57 5.1 Data descriptions . 57 5.2 Scenario design . 59 5.3 Simulation results . 65 VI. Conclusion.76 6.1 Conclusion and Implication. 76 6.2 Contribution and Extension . 78 Reference .79
author2 張靜貞
臺灣大學：農業經濟學研究所
format Thesis
author 張鑫桂
Chang, Xin-Gui
author_facet 張鑫桂
Chang, Xin-Gui
author_sort 張鑫桂
title 泰國爆發禽流感對中國台灣與東南亞國家的經濟影響 之評估
title_short 泰國爆發禽流感對中國台灣與東南亞國家的經濟影響 之評估
title_full 泰國爆發禽流感對中國台灣與東南亞國家的經濟影響 之評估
title_fullStr 泰國爆發禽流感對中國台灣與東南亞國家的經濟影響 之評估
title_full_unstemmed 泰國爆發禽流感對中國台灣與東南亞國家的經濟影響 之評估
title_sort 泰國爆發禽流感對中國台灣與東南亞國家的經濟影響 之評估
publishDate 2006
url http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/246246/59053
http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/59053/1/ntu-95-R94627022-1.pdf
genre Avian flu
genre_facet Avian flu
op_relation Melbourne, Australia : Monash University. Dixon B. P., S. Bowles, D. Kendrick, L. Taylor, M. Roberts, 1980. Note and Problems in Microeconomic Theory. Netherlands. Douglas, J., K. Szeto, and B. Buckle, 2006. “Impacts of a Potential Influenza Pandemic on New Zealand’s Macroeconomy.” New Zealand: New Zealand Treasury. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 2007., “FAO Core Production Data and Shock Numbers Calculation of Thai Live animal,” Available from http://faostat.fao.org/site/340/default.aspx Hubbard, L. J. and G. Philippidis, 2001. “General Equilibrium and the Ban on British Beef Exports,” Journal of Agricultural Economics. Vol. 52, No. 3. pp. 87-95. Hubbard, L. J. and G. Philippidis, 2005. “A dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Treatment of the Ban on UK Beef Exports: A Note,” Journal of Agricultural Economic. Vol. 56, No. 2. pp. 307-312. James, K. and T. Sargent, 2006. “The Economic Impact of An Influenza Pandemic,”Economic Analysis and Forecasting Division. Canada: Department of Finance. Kennedy, S., J. Thomson, and P. Vujanovic, 2006. “A Primer on the Macroeconomic Effects of An Influenza Pandemic,” Treasury Working Paper 2006-01. Canberra: Australian Government Treasury. Mckibbin, W. J. and A. A. Sidorenko, 2006. Global Macroeconomic Consequence of Pandemic Influenza. Sydney: Lowy Institute for International Policy. Milan, B., 2005. “Avian Influenza: Economic and Social Impacts,” World Bank Lead Economist for East Asia Pacific. September 23. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Oktviani, R.,2005. “AI and its Impact on the Indonesia Economy: a CGE Approach,”Indonesia: Department of Economics. Faculty of Economics and Management, Bogor Agricultural University. Thomas, W. H., 1997. Global Trade Analysis. the United States of America: Purdue University. Tourist Authority of Thailand, 2000. “Tourism Situation in 2000,” Available from http://www.bot.or.th/BOTHomepage/DataBank/Real_Sector/Service&Other/Touris m&Hotel/annual/7-5-2001-Eng-i-1/summary2000_Eng_2.htm Verbiest, Jean-Pierre A. and C. N.Castillo, 2004. “An Economic Assessment for Selected Developing Countries is Asia,” ERD Policy Brief. No.24.Manila: Asian Development Bank. World Health Organization, 2007. “Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza A Reported to WHO.” Available from http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2007_06_29/ en/index.html
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spelling ftntaiwanuniv:oai:140.112.114.62:246246/59053 2023-05-15T15:34:17+02:00 泰國爆發禽流感對中國台灣與東南亞國家的經濟影響 之評估 The Economic Assessment Impact of Avian Flu Pandemic on China, Taiwan and South-East Asia countries when exploded from Thailand. 張鑫桂 Chang, Xin-Gui 張靜貞 臺灣大學：農業經濟學研究所 2006 3139684 bytes application/pdf http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/246246/59053 http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/59053/1/ntu-95-R94627022-1.pdf en-US en_US eng Melbourne, Australia : Monash University. Dixon B. P., S. Bowles, D. Kendrick, L. Taylor, M. Roberts, 1980. Note and Problems in Microeconomic Theory. Netherlands. Douglas, J., K. Szeto, and B. Buckle, 2006. “Impacts of a Potential Influenza Pandemic on New Zealand’s Macroeconomy.” New Zealand: New Zealand Treasury. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 2007., “FAO Core Production Data and Shock Numbers Calculation of Thai Live animal,” Available from http://faostat.fao.org/site/340/default.aspx Hubbard, L. J. and G. Philippidis, 2001. “General Equilibrium and the Ban on British Beef Exports,” Journal of Agricultural Economics. Vol. 52, No. 3. pp. 87-95. Hubbard, L. J. and G. Philippidis, 2005. “A dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Treatment of the Ban on UK Beef Exports: A Note,” Journal of Agricultural Economic. Vol. 56, No. 2. pp. 307-312. James, K. and T. Sargent, 2006. “The Economic Impact of An Influenza Pandemic,”Economic Analysis and Forecasting Division. Canada: Department of Finance. Kennedy, S., J. Thomson, and P. Vujanovic, 2006. “A Primer on the Macroeconomic Effects of An Influenza Pandemic,” Treasury Working Paper 2006-01. Canberra: Australian Government Treasury. Mckibbin, W. J. and A. A. Sidorenko, 2006. Global Macroeconomic Consequence of Pandemic Influenza. Sydney: Lowy Institute for International Policy. Milan, B., 2005. “Avian Influenza: Economic and Social Impacts,” World Bank Lead Economist for East Asia Pacific. September 23. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Oktviani, R.,2005. “AI and its Impact on the Indonesia Economy: a CGE Approach,”Indonesia: Department of Economics. Faculty of Economics and Management, Bogor Agricultural University. Thomas, W. H., 1997. Global Trade Analysis. the United States of America: Purdue University. Tourist Authority of Thailand, 2000. “Tourism Situation in 2000,” Available from http://www.bot.or.th/BOTHomepage/DataBank/Real_Sector/Service&Other/Touris m&Hotel/annual/7-5-2001-Eng-i-1/summary2000_Eng_2.htm Verbiest, Jean-Pierre A. and C. N.Castillo, 2004. “An Economic Assessment for Selected Developing Countries is Asia,” ERD Policy Brief. No.24.Manila: Asian Development Bank. World Health Organization, 2007. “Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza A Reported to WHO.” Available from http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2007_06_29/ en/index.html 禽流感 GTAP 模型 多國分析 東南亞國家 經濟影響 Avian flu computable general equilibrium model poultry sector international trade thesis 2006 ftntaiwanuniv 2016-02-20T00:11:10Z 本研究探討若泰國爆發禽流感對中國、台灣和東南亞國家的經濟影響。主要是由家禽部門之疫情來影響泰國之總體經濟。本研究利用多國可計算一般均衡模型來評估由於家禽部門疫情而影響之國際間生產、出口以及就業變化。 實證模擬分析的結果指出禽流感將會在泰國再度地爆發。家禽部門疫情將會造成泰國的實質GDP 減少0.69%~0.78%，但卻對其他國家不會造成太大的影響。又若假設每個國家爆發等同於泰國疫情程度之禽流感疫情，此時中國影響將最為嚴重，其次是越南。在此同時，台灣實質GDP 的影響卻非常小。 除此之外，禽流感疫情不但會造成一個國家產業部門的損失，且也會影響其他國家的產業，例如批發業、零售業、飼料業和食用性產品。 This study discusses the socio-economic impacts of avian flu on China, Taiwan and South-East Asia countries when exploded from Thailand. The impacts on macroeconomics and Thailand’s poultry sector are the major concerns of this crisis. A multi-country computable general equilibrium model is employed to evaluate the production, export, and employment variation which took an effect together with the poultry sector. The model simulation results indicate that if the avian flu is exploded from Thailand’s poultry sector, Thailand’s real GDP would drop -0.69~-0.78% but no large effects are found in other neighboring countries except China. When the Southeast Asian countries suffer from reduced poultry exports, it will also affect China. On the other hand, when China was heavily shocked by the outbreak, it will not only take an effect to the Southeast Asia countries but also take a toll to Taiwan’s economy along with rest of the world through trade links. I. Introduction.1 1.1 Research motivation. 1 1.2 Objective. 2 1.3 Methodology. 3 II. Historical Review of Avian Flu and Government Policy Response .6 2.1 Global condition and historical review of avian flu. 6 2.2 Recent Development in Asia country. 13 2.3 Reviews on Economics and Social Impacts . 14 2.4 Background in Each Country. 24 III. A Review of the Thailand Poultry Sector.26 3.1 Production . 26 3.2 Trade . 29 3.3 Thailand collaboration with WHO. 40 IV. GTAP analysis approach.44 4.1 Model framework . 44 4.2 Theoretical structure . 45 4.3 GTAP model and related equations . 52 4.3.1 Conceptual of GTAP . 52 4.3.2 Correlation in GTAP model system. 56 V. Data and Scenario design .57 5.1 Data descriptions . 57 5.2 Scenario design . 59 5.3 Simulation results . 65 VI. Conclusion.76 6.1 Conclusion and Implication. 76 6.2 Contribution and Extension . 78 Reference .79 Thesis Avian flu National Taiwan University Institutional Repository (NTUR)

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