Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming
Ocean warming and acidification threaten the future growth of coral reefs. This is because the calcifying coral reef taxa that construct the calcium carbonate frameworks and cement the reef together are highly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. However, the global-scale effects of ocean w...
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Online Access: | https://nsuworks.nova.edu/occ_facarticles/1202 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015265118 |
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ftnsoutheastern:oai:nsuworks.nova.edu:occ_facarticles-2214 2023-05-15T17:51:50+02:00 Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming Cornwall, Christopher E. Comeau, Steeve Kornder, Niklas A. Perry, Chris T. van Hooidonk, Ruben DeCarlo, Thomas M. Pratchett, Morgan S. Anderson, Kristen D. Browne, Nicola Carpenter, Robert Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo D’Olivo, Juan P. Doo, Steve S. Figueiredo, Joana Fortunato, Sofia A.V. Kennedy, Emma Lantz, Coulson A. McCulloch, Malcolm T. González-Rivero, Manuel Schoepf, Verena Smithers, Scott G. Lowe, Ryan J. 2021-05-25T07:00:00Z https://nsuworks.nova.edu/occ_facarticles/1202 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015265118 unknown NSUWorks https://nsuworks.nova.edu/occ_facarticles/1202 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015265118 Marine & Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles calcification Carbonate production climate change corals article 2021 ftnsoutheastern https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015265118 2022-04-10T22:19:24Z Ocean warming and acidification threaten the future growth of coral reefs. This is because the calcifying coral reef taxa that construct the calcium carbonate frameworks and cement the reef together are highly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. However, the global-scale effects of ocean warming and acidification on rates of coral reef net carbonate production remain poorly constrained despite a wealth of studies assessing their effects on the calcification of individual organisms. Here, we present global estimates of projected future changes in coral reef net carbonate production under ocean warming and acidification. We apply a meta-analysis of responses of coral reef taxa calcification and bioerosion rates to predicted changes in coral cover driven by climate change to estimate the net carbonate production rates of 183 reefs worldwide by 2050 and 2100. We forecast mean global reef net carbonate production under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 will decline by 76, 149, and 156%, respectively, by 2100. While 63% of reefs are projected to continue to accrete by 2100 under RCP2.6, 94% will be eroding by 2050 under RCP8.5, and no reefs will continue to accrete at rates matching projected sea level rise under RCP4.5 or 8.5 by 2100. Projected reduced coral cover due to bleaching events predominately drives these declines rather than the direct physiological impacts of ocean warming and acidification on calcification or bioerosion. Presently degraded reefs were also more sensitive in our analysis. These findings highlight the low likelihood that the world’s coral reefs will maintain their functional roles without near-term stabilization of atmospheric CO2 emissions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ocean acidification Nova Southeastern University: NSU Works Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118 21 e2015265118 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Nova Southeastern University: NSU Works |
op_collection_id |
ftnsoutheastern |
language |
unknown |
topic |
calcification Carbonate production climate change corals |
spellingShingle |
calcification Carbonate production climate change corals Cornwall, Christopher E. Comeau, Steeve Kornder, Niklas A. Perry, Chris T. van Hooidonk, Ruben DeCarlo, Thomas M. Pratchett, Morgan S. Anderson, Kristen D. Browne, Nicola Carpenter, Robert Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo D’Olivo, Juan P. Doo, Steve S. Figueiredo, Joana Fortunato, Sofia A.V. Kennedy, Emma Lantz, Coulson A. McCulloch, Malcolm T. González-Rivero, Manuel Schoepf, Verena Smithers, Scott G. Lowe, Ryan J. Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming |
topic_facet |
calcification Carbonate production climate change corals |
description |
Ocean warming and acidification threaten the future growth of coral reefs. This is because the calcifying coral reef taxa that construct the calcium carbonate frameworks and cement the reef together are highly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. However, the global-scale effects of ocean warming and acidification on rates of coral reef net carbonate production remain poorly constrained despite a wealth of studies assessing their effects on the calcification of individual organisms. Here, we present global estimates of projected future changes in coral reef net carbonate production under ocean warming and acidification. We apply a meta-analysis of responses of coral reef taxa calcification and bioerosion rates to predicted changes in coral cover driven by climate change to estimate the net carbonate production rates of 183 reefs worldwide by 2050 and 2100. We forecast mean global reef net carbonate production under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 will decline by 76, 149, and 156%, respectively, by 2100. While 63% of reefs are projected to continue to accrete by 2100 under RCP2.6, 94% will be eroding by 2050 under RCP8.5, and no reefs will continue to accrete at rates matching projected sea level rise under RCP4.5 or 8.5 by 2100. Projected reduced coral cover due to bleaching events predominately drives these declines rather than the direct physiological impacts of ocean warming and acidification on calcification or bioerosion. Presently degraded reefs were also more sensitive in our analysis. These findings highlight the low likelihood that the world’s coral reefs will maintain their functional roles without near-term stabilization of atmospheric CO2 emissions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cornwall, Christopher E. Comeau, Steeve Kornder, Niklas A. Perry, Chris T. van Hooidonk, Ruben DeCarlo, Thomas M. Pratchett, Morgan S. Anderson, Kristen D. Browne, Nicola Carpenter, Robert Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo D’Olivo, Juan P. Doo, Steve S. Figueiredo, Joana Fortunato, Sofia A.V. Kennedy, Emma Lantz, Coulson A. McCulloch, Malcolm T. González-Rivero, Manuel Schoepf, Verena Smithers, Scott G. Lowe, Ryan J. |
author_facet |
Cornwall, Christopher E. Comeau, Steeve Kornder, Niklas A. Perry, Chris T. van Hooidonk, Ruben DeCarlo, Thomas M. Pratchett, Morgan S. Anderson, Kristen D. Browne, Nicola Carpenter, Robert Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo D’Olivo, Juan P. Doo, Steve S. Figueiredo, Joana Fortunato, Sofia A.V. Kennedy, Emma Lantz, Coulson A. McCulloch, Malcolm T. González-Rivero, Manuel Schoepf, Verena Smithers, Scott G. Lowe, Ryan J. |
author_sort |
Cornwall, Christopher E. |
title |
Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming |
title_short |
Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming |
title_full |
Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming |
title_fullStr |
Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming |
title_sort |
global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming |
publisher |
NSUWorks |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://nsuworks.nova.edu/occ_facarticles/1202 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015265118 |
genre |
Ocean acidification |
genre_facet |
Ocean acidification |
op_source |
Marine & Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles |
op_relation |
https://nsuworks.nova.edu/occ_facarticles/1202 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015265118 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015265118 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
container_volume |
118 |
container_issue |
21 |
container_start_page |
e2015265118 |
_version_ |
1766159100763176960 |