Time-series modelling of avalanche activity from meteorological date
Avalanche-hazard evaluation by field analysts is largely achieved along casual intuitive lines, depending for its success upon the experience of the analyst in his particular area. Several attempts have been made in the past to quantify such procedures by means of statistical models based upon meteo...
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ftnrccanada:oai:cisti-icist.nrc-cnrc.ca:cistinparc:20331425 2024-09-15T18:15:40+00:00 Time-series modelling of avalanche activity from meteorological date Salway, A. A. 1979 text https://nrc-publications.canada.ca/eng/view/ft/?id=22e9c775-81c1-4e89-a129-8df4f2759877 https://nrc-publications.canada.ca/eng/view/object/?id=22e9c775-81c1-4e89-a129-8df4f2759877 https://nrc-publications.canada.ca/fra/voir/objet/?id=22e9c775-81c1-4e89-a129-8df4f2759877 eng eng issn:0022-1430 Journal of Glaciology, Volume: 22, Issue: 88, Publication date: 1979, Pages: 513–528 report_number:DBR-P-915 avalanches avalanche meteorological conditions condition météorologique article 1979 ftnrccanada 2024-08-05T14:05:07Z Avalanche-hazard evaluation by field analysts is largely achieved along casual intuitive lines, depending for its success upon the experience of the analyst in his particular area. Several attempts have been made in the past to quantify such procedures by means of statistical models based upon meteorological measurements. Modified forms of a multivariate technique known as linear discriminant analysis have been tried with only partial success. Intercorrelated variables and autocorrelated data, omission of time-lagged terms, insufficient variation in the dependent variable, and sampling difficulties may have combined to weaken the discriminant approach. These problems and the nature of the phenomenon suggest that a stochastic transfer-function time- series approach may be a useful alternative method. A numerical weighting scheme has been devised for the representation of avalanche activity for the Rogers Pass area of British Columbia in terms of terminus, size, and moisture-content codes for each event. From various types of correlation analysis performed on data for the period 1965-1973, models were developed using the "best" weighting scheme for avalanche activity representation and the most promising meteorological variables, as indicated by the results of the correlation analysis. These relatively simple models demonstrate a good fit to the actual data, in both a descriptive and a simulated-forecasting situation. L'estimation du danger d'avalanche par des observateurs sur le terrain est en grande partie basée sur des déductions intuitives, dont le succès dépend de l'expérience personnelle de l'observateur dans son secteur particulier. On a fait plusieurs tentatives dans le passé pour quantifier ces processus par des modèles statistiques basés sur des données météorologiques. Des formes dérivées de la technique d'analyses à variables multiples, connues sous le nom d'analyses linéaires discriminantes, ont été essayées avec un succès seulement partiel. Des variables liées entre elles et des données ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Journal of Glaciology National Research Council Canada: NRC Publications Archive |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
National Research Council Canada: NRC Publications Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnrccanada |
language |
English |
topic |
avalanches avalanche meteorological conditions condition météorologique |
spellingShingle |
avalanches avalanche meteorological conditions condition météorologique Salway, A. A. Time-series modelling of avalanche activity from meteorological date |
topic_facet |
avalanches avalanche meteorological conditions condition météorologique |
description |
Avalanche-hazard evaluation by field analysts is largely achieved along casual intuitive lines, depending for its success upon the experience of the analyst in his particular area. Several attempts have been made in the past to quantify such procedures by means of statistical models based upon meteorological measurements. Modified forms of a multivariate technique known as linear discriminant analysis have been tried with only partial success. Intercorrelated variables and autocorrelated data, omission of time-lagged terms, insufficient variation in the dependent variable, and sampling difficulties may have combined to weaken the discriminant approach. These problems and the nature of the phenomenon suggest that a stochastic transfer-function time- series approach may be a useful alternative method. A numerical weighting scheme has been devised for the representation of avalanche activity for the Rogers Pass area of British Columbia in terms of terminus, size, and moisture-content codes for each event. From various types of correlation analysis performed on data for the period 1965-1973, models were developed using the "best" weighting scheme for avalanche activity representation and the most promising meteorological variables, as indicated by the results of the correlation analysis. These relatively simple models demonstrate a good fit to the actual data, in both a descriptive and a simulated-forecasting situation. L'estimation du danger d'avalanche par des observateurs sur le terrain est en grande partie basée sur des déductions intuitives, dont le succès dépend de l'expérience personnelle de l'observateur dans son secteur particulier. On a fait plusieurs tentatives dans le passé pour quantifier ces processus par des modèles statistiques basés sur des données météorologiques. Des formes dérivées de la technique d'analyses à variables multiples, connues sous le nom d'analyses linéaires discriminantes, ont été essayées avec un succès seulement partiel. Des variables liées entre elles et des données ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Salway, A. A. |
author_facet |
Salway, A. A. |
author_sort |
Salway, A. A. |
title |
Time-series modelling of avalanche activity from meteorological date |
title_short |
Time-series modelling of avalanche activity from meteorological date |
title_full |
Time-series modelling of avalanche activity from meteorological date |
title_fullStr |
Time-series modelling of avalanche activity from meteorological date |
title_full_unstemmed |
Time-series modelling of avalanche activity from meteorological date |
title_sort |
time-series modelling of avalanche activity from meteorological date |
publishDate |
1979 |
url |
https://nrc-publications.canada.ca/eng/view/ft/?id=22e9c775-81c1-4e89-a129-8df4f2759877 https://nrc-publications.canada.ca/eng/view/object/?id=22e9c775-81c1-4e89-a129-8df4f2759877 https://nrc-publications.canada.ca/fra/voir/objet/?id=22e9c775-81c1-4e89-a129-8df4f2759877 |
genre |
Journal of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
Journal of Glaciology |
op_relation |
issn:0022-1430 Journal of Glaciology, Volume: 22, Issue: 88, Publication date: 1979, Pages: 513–528 report_number:DBR-P-915 |
_version_ |
1810453598143774720 |