Understanding future changes in tropical cyclogenesis using Self-Organizing Maps
Future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis locations and frequency are explored by identifying relationships between TC genesis and dominant daily large-scale patterns, and evaluating the strength of these relationships under a climate change scenario. Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) are used to ch...
Published in: | Weather and Climate Extremes |
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ftnorthwestuniv:oai:repository.nwu.ac.za:10394/33618 2023-05-15T17:33:19+02:00 Understanding future changes in tropical cyclogenesis using Self-Organizing Maps Jaye, Abigail Bruyère, Cindy L. Done, James M. 24764159 - Bruyère, Cindy Lynette 2019 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10394/33618 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094719300301/pdfft?md5=3e745d9f94d776a49be724d1a8ce8504&pid=1-s2.0-S2212094719300301-main.pdf https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100235 en eng Elsevier Jaye, A.B. et al. 2019. Understanding future changes in tropical cyclogenesis using Self-Organizing Maps. Weather and climate extremes, 26: Article no 100235. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100235] 2212-0947 (Online) http://hdl.handle.net/10394/33618 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094719300301/pdfft?md5=3e745d9f94d776a49be724d1a8ce8504&pid=1-s2.0-S2212094719300301-main.pdf https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100235 Self-organizing maps Tropical cyclones WRF Regional climate modeling Article 2019 ftnorthwestuniv https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100235 2020-02-04T00:57:53Z Future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis locations and frequency are explored by identifying relationships between TC genesis and dominant daily large-scale patterns, and evaluating the strength of these relationships under a climate change scenario. Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) are used to characterize the dominant large-scale patterns in reanalysis data and in a regional climate model ensemble simulation of current climate. The main features on the resulting sea level pressure (SLP) SOMs are nodes that resemble both the negative and positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, as well as blocking and ridging regimes. The frequency of the NAO-like nodes is strongly linked to TC genesis frequency and preferred genesis locations. This link is used to develop a statistical relationship between the frequency of large scale SLP patterns and TC genesis. The application of this relationship to an ensemble regional climate simulation under a future climate forcing scenario predicts fewer TCs, which is consistent with the regional climate model that explicitly simulates fewer TCs. This demonstrates the strength of the relationships and their use in assessing future changes in TC genesis locations and frequency Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation North-West University, South Africa: Boloka (NWU-IR) Weather and Climate Extremes 26 100235 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
North-West University, South Africa: Boloka (NWU-IR) |
op_collection_id |
ftnorthwestuniv |
language |
English |
topic |
Self-organizing maps Tropical cyclones WRF Regional climate modeling |
spellingShingle |
Self-organizing maps Tropical cyclones WRF Regional climate modeling Jaye, Abigail Bruyère, Cindy L. Done, James M. Understanding future changes in tropical cyclogenesis using Self-Organizing Maps |
topic_facet |
Self-organizing maps Tropical cyclones WRF Regional climate modeling |
description |
Future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis locations and frequency are explored by identifying relationships between TC genesis and dominant daily large-scale patterns, and evaluating the strength of these relationships under a climate change scenario. Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) are used to characterize the dominant large-scale patterns in reanalysis data and in a regional climate model ensemble simulation of current climate. The main features on the resulting sea level pressure (SLP) SOMs are nodes that resemble both the negative and positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, as well as blocking and ridging regimes. The frequency of the NAO-like nodes is strongly linked to TC genesis frequency and preferred genesis locations. This link is used to develop a statistical relationship between the frequency of large scale SLP patterns and TC genesis. The application of this relationship to an ensemble regional climate simulation under a future climate forcing scenario predicts fewer TCs, which is consistent with the regional climate model that explicitly simulates fewer TCs. This demonstrates the strength of the relationships and their use in assessing future changes in TC genesis locations and frequency |
author2 |
24764159 - Bruyère, Cindy Lynette |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jaye, Abigail Bruyère, Cindy L. Done, James M. |
author_facet |
Jaye, Abigail Bruyère, Cindy L. Done, James M. |
author_sort |
Jaye, Abigail |
title |
Understanding future changes in tropical cyclogenesis using Self-Organizing Maps |
title_short |
Understanding future changes in tropical cyclogenesis using Self-Organizing Maps |
title_full |
Understanding future changes in tropical cyclogenesis using Self-Organizing Maps |
title_fullStr |
Understanding future changes in tropical cyclogenesis using Self-Organizing Maps |
title_full_unstemmed |
Understanding future changes in tropical cyclogenesis using Self-Organizing Maps |
title_sort |
understanding future changes in tropical cyclogenesis using self-organizing maps |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10394/33618 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094719300301/pdfft?md5=3e745d9f94d776a49be724d1a8ce8504&pid=1-s2.0-S2212094719300301-main.pdf https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100235 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
Jaye, A.B. et al. 2019. Understanding future changes in tropical cyclogenesis using Self-Organizing Maps. Weather and climate extremes, 26: Article no 100235. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100235] 2212-0947 (Online) http://hdl.handle.net/10394/33618 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094719300301/pdfft?md5=3e745d9f94d776a49be724d1a8ce8504&pid=1-s2.0-S2212094719300301-main.pdf https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100235 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100235 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Extremes |
container_volume |
26 |
container_start_page |
100235 |
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1766131793504763904 |