Yield predictions of timothy (Phleum pratense L.) in Norway under future climate scenarios
The perennial forage grass timothy (Phleum pratense L.) is the most important forage crop in Norway. Future changes in the climate will affect growing conditions and hence the yield output. We used data from the Norwegian Value for Cultivation and Use testing to find a statistical prediction model f...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3108715 https://doi.org/10.23986/afsci.127935 |
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ftnorskregnesent:oai:nr.brage.unit.no:11250/3108715 2024-01-21T10:08:59+01:00 Yield predictions of timothy (Phleum pratense L.) in Norway under future climate scenarios Hellton, Kristoffer Herland Amdahl, Helga Thorarinsdottir, Thordis Alsheikh, Muath K Aamlid, Trygve S. Jørgensen, Marit Dalmannsdottir, Sigridur Rognli, Odd Arne 2023 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3108715 https://doi.org/10.23986/afsci.127935 eng eng Norges forskningsråd: 303258 Agricultural and Food Science. 2023, 32 (2), 80-93. urn:issn:1459-6067 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3108715 https://doi.org/10.23986/afsci.127935 cristin:2162178 Navngivelse-Ikkekommersiell-DelPåSammeVilkår 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/deed.no Agricultural and Food Science 32 2 80-93 Journal article Peer reviewed 2023 ftnorskregnesent https://doi.org/10.23986/afsci.127935 2023-12-27T23:43:52Z The perennial forage grass timothy (Phleum pratense L.) is the most important forage crop in Norway. Future changes in the climate will affect growing conditions and hence the yield output. We used data from the Norwegian Value for Cultivation and Use testing to find a statistical prediction model for total dry matter yield (DMY) based on agro-climatic variables. The statistical model selection found that the predictors with the highest predictive power were growing degree days (GDD) in July and the number of days with rain (>1mm) in June–July. These predictors together explained 43% of the variability in total DMY. Further, the prediction model was combined with a range of climate ensembles (RCP4.5) to project DMY of timothy for the decades 2050–2059 and 2090–2099 at 8 locations in Norway. Our projections forecast that DMY of today’s timothy varieties may decrease substantially in South-Eastern Norway, but increase in Northern Norway, by the middle of the century, due to increased temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Northern Norway Norwegian Computing Center: NR vitenarkiv Norway Agricultural and Food Science |
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Open Polar |
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Norwegian Computing Center: NR vitenarkiv |
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ftnorskregnesent |
language |
English |
description |
The perennial forage grass timothy (Phleum pratense L.) is the most important forage crop in Norway. Future changes in the climate will affect growing conditions and hence the yield output. We used data from the Norwegian Value for Cultivation and Use testing to find a statistical prediction model for total dry matter yield (DMY) based on agro-climatic variables. The statistical model selection found that the predictors with the highest predictive power were growing degree days (GDD) in July and the number of days with rain (>1mm) in June–July. These predictors together explained 43% of the variability in total DMY. Further, the prediction model was combined with a range of climate ensembles (RCP4.5) to project DMY of timothy for the decades 2050–2059 and 2090–2099 at 8 locations in Norway. Our projections forecast that DMY of today’s timothy varieties may decrease substantially in South-Eastern Norway, but increase in Northern Norway, by the middle of the century, due to increased temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hellton, Kristoffer Herland Amdahl, Helga Thorarinsdottir, Thordis Alsheikh, Muath K Aamlid, Trygve S. Jørgensen, Marit Dalmannsdottir, Sigridur Rognli, Odd Arne |
spellingShingle |
Hellton, Kristoffer Herland Amdahl, Helga Thorarinsdottir, Thordis Alsheikh, Muath K Aamlid, Trygve S. Jørgensen, Marit Dalmannsdottir, Sigridur Rognli, Odd Arne Yield predictions of timothy (Phleum pratense L.) in Norway under future climate scenarios |
author_facet |
Hellton, Kristoffer Herland Amdahl, Helga Thorarinsdottir, Thordis Alsheikh, Muath K Aamlid, Trygve S. Jørgensen, Marit Dalmannsdottir, Sigridur Rognli, Odd Arne |
author_sort |
Hellton, Kristoffer Herland |
title |
Yield predictions of timothy (Phleum pratense L.) in Norway under future climate scenarios |
title_short |
Yield predictions of timothy (Phleum pratense L.) in Norway under future climate scenarios |
title_full |
Yield predictions of timothy (Phleum pratense L.) in Norway under future climate scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Yield predictions of timothy (Phleum pratense L.) in Norway under future climate scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Yield predictions of timothy (Phleum pratense L.) in Norway under future climate scenarios |
title_sort |
yield predictions of timothy (phleum pratense l.) in norway under future climate scenarios |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3108715 https://doi.org/10.23986/afsci.127935 |
geographic |
Norway |
geographic_facet |
Norway |
genre |
Northern Norway |
genre_facet |
Northern Norway |
op_source |
Agricultural and Food Science 32 2 80-93 |
op_relation |
Norges forskningsråd: 303258 Agricultural and Food Science. 2023, 32 (2), 80-93. urn:issn:1459-6067 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3108715 https://doi.org/10.23986/afsci.127935 cristin:2162178 |
op_rights |
Navngivelse-Ikkekommersiell-DelPåSammeVilkår 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/deed.no |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.23986/afsci.127935 |
container_title |
Agricultural and Food Science |
_version_ |
1788699881453387776 |