Why do regional biogeochemical models produce contrasting future projections of primary production in the Barents Sea?
Projected future changes in primary production in the Barents Sea vary among different regional biogeochemical models, with some showing an increase, some a decrease, and some no change. This variability has been attributed to differences in the underlying physics, but little effort has been spent t...
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ftnorskinstvf:oai:niva.brage.unit.no:11250/3091115 2023-10-25T01:35:56+02:00 Why do regional biogeochemical models produce contrasting future projections of primary production in the Barents Sea? Mousing, Erik Askov Ellingsen, Ingrid Helene Hjøllo, Solfrid Sætre Husson, Berengere Skogen, Morten D. Wallhead, Philip 2023 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3091115 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seares.2023.102366 eng eng Elsevier The EEA and Norway Grants Fund for Regional Cooperation: RO-NO-2019-0520 Framsenteret: Ocean Acidification Flagship Sigma2: ns9630k Sigma2: nn2967k Journal of Sea Research. 2023, 192, 102366. urn:issn:1385-1101 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3091115 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seares.2023.102366 cristin:2134698 Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © 2023 The Authors 7 192 Journal of Sea Research 102366 Peer reviewed Journal article 2023 ftnorskinstvf https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seares.2023.102366 2023-09-27T22:46:48Z Projected future changes in primary production in the Barents Sea vary among different regional biogeochemical models, with some showing an increase, some a decrease, and some no change. This variability has been attributed to differences in the underlying physics, but little effort has been spent to understand the primary causal processes. In this study, we compare two extreme projections: one model (NORWECOM.E2E) projects a 36% increase and another model (SINMOD) projects a 9% decrease in primary production in a future warmer Barents Sea. Using structural equation modeling, we identify the direct and indirect effects of the major environmental variables on primary production. The results show that the two biogeochemical models agree on the directions of impacts, and that differences in the physical environment, specifically the factors controlling nutrient availability, are the main cause of the disparities. Both models agree that decreasing ice-coverage leads to increased primary production. However, the projection with a decrease in primary production was characterized by a decrease in winter nitrate concentrations and stronger temperature-induced stratification. By contrast, the projection with an increase in primary production was characterized by an increase in winter nitrate concentrations and weaker stratification due to a relatively smaller temperature increase which was offset by increasing wind stress. The results emphasize the need for accurate descriptions of the physical environments and inform discussions about the future of the Barents Sea ecosystem and the potential for Arctic blue growth. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Barents Sea Norwegian Institute for Water research: NIVA Open Access Archive (Brage) Arctic Barents Sea Journal of Sea Research 192 102366 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Norwegian Institute for Water research: NIVA Open Access Archive (Brage) |
op_collection_id |
ftnorskinstvf |
language |
English |
description |
Projected future changes in primary production in the Barents Sea vary among different regional biogeochemical models, with some showing an increase, some a decrease, and some no change. This variability has been attributed to differences in the underlying physics, but little effort has been spent to understand the primary causal processes. In this study, we compare two extreme projections: one model (NORWECOM.E2E) projects a 36% increase and another model (SINMOD) projects a 9% decrease in primary production in a future warmer Barents Sea. Using structural equation modeling, we identify the direct and indirect effects of the major environmental variables on primary production. The results show that the two biogeochemical models agree on the directions of impacts, and that differences in the physical environment, specifically the factors controlling nutrient availability, are the main cause of the disparities. Both models agree that decreasing ice-coverage leads to increased primary production. However, the projection with a decrease in primary production was characterized by a decrease in winter nitrate concentrations and stronger temperature-induced stratification. By contrast, the projection with an increase in primary production was characterized by an increase in winter nitrate concentrations and weaker stratification due to a relatively smaller temperature increase which was offset by increasing wind stress. The results emphasize the need for accurate descriptions of the physical environments and inform discussions about the future of the Barents Sea ecosystem and the potential for Arctic blue growth. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mousing, Erik Askov Ellingsen, Ingrid Helene Hjøllo, Solfrid Sætre Husson, Berengere Skogen, Morten D. Wallhead, Philip |
spellingShingle |
Mousing, Erik Askov Ellingsen, Ingrid Helene Hjøllo, Solfrid Sætre Husson, Berengere Skogen, Morten D. Wallhead, Philip Why do regional biogeochemical models produce contrasting future projections of primary production in the Barents Sea? |
author_facet |
Mousing, Erik Askov Ellingsen, Ingrid Helene Hjøllo, Solfrid Sætre Husson, Berengere Skogen, Morten D. Wallhead, Philip |
author_sort |
Mousing, Erik Askov |
title |
Why do regional biogeochemical models produce contrasting future projections of primary production in the Barents Sea? |
title_short |
Why do regional biogeochemical models produce contrasting future projections of primary production in the Barents Sea? |
title_full |
Why do regional biogeochemical models produce contrasting future projections of primary production in the Barents Sea? |
title_fullStr |
Why do regional biogeochemical models produce contrasting future projections of primary production in the Barents Sea? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Why do regional biogeochemical models produce contrasting future projections of primary production in the Barents Sea? |
title_sort |
why do regional biogeochemical models produce contrasting future projections of primary production in the barents sea? |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3091115 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seares.2023.102366 |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea |
genre |
Arctic Barents Sea |
genre_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea |
op_source |
7 192 Journal of Sea Research 102366 |
op_relation |
The EEA and Norway Grants Fund for Regional Cooperation: RO-NO-2019-0520 Framsenteret: Ocean Acidification Flagship Sigma2: ns9630k Sigma2: nn2967k Journal of Sea Research. 2023, 192, 102366. urn:issn:1385-1101 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3091115 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seares.2023.102366 cristin:2134698 |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © 2023 The Authors |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seares.2023.102366 |
container_title |
Journal of Sea Research |
container_volume |
192 |
container_start_page |
102366 |
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1780730948700078080 |