A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications
Increasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problema...
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ftnorskinstvf:oai:niva.brage.unit.no:11250/2507064 2023-05-15T18:16:48+02:00 A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications Cavanagh, Rachel D. Murphy, Eugene J. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Turner, John Knowland, Cheryl A. Corney, Stuart P. Smith, Walker O. Waluda, Claire M. Johnston, Nadine M. Bellerby, Richard Constable, Andrew J. Costa, Daniel P. Hofmann, Eileen E. Jackson, Jennifer A. Staniland, Iain J. Wolf-Gladrow, Dieter Xavier, Jose C. 2017 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2507064 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2017.00308 eng eng Frontiers Media Natural Environment Research Council: I029943/1 Investigator FCT: 00616/2013 FCT: MARE- UID/MAR/04292/2013 Frontiers in Marine Science. 2017, 4, 12, 308. urn:issn:2296-7745 http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2507064 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2017.00308 cristin:1552740 Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © 2017 Cavanagh, Murphy, Bracegirdle, Turner, Knowland, Corney, Smith,Waluda, Johnston, Bellerby, Constable, Costa, Hofmann, Jackson, Staniland, Wolf-Gladrow, Xavier. CC-BY 12 4 Frontiers in Marine Science Journal article Peer reviewed 2017 ftnorskinstvf https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2017.00308 2023-02-21T08:46:21Z Increasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problematic. The expertise required to access and interpret output fromclimate and earth systemmodels is hampering progress in utilizing them most effectively to determine the wider implications of climate change. To address this issue, we present a joint approach between climate scientists and ecologists that explores key challenges and opportunities for progress. As an exemplar, our focus is the Southern Ocean, notable for significant change with global implications, and on sea ice, given its crucial role in this dynamic ecosystem. We combined perspectives to evaluate the representation of sea ice in global climate models. With an emphasis on ecologically-relevant criteria (sea ice extent and seasonality) we selected a subset of eight models that reliably reproduce extant sea ice distributions. While the model subset shows a similar mean change to the full ensemble in sea ice extent (approximately 50% decline in winter and 30% decline in summer), there is a marked reduction in the range. This improved the precision of projected future sea ice distributions by approximately one third, and means they are more amenable to ecological interpretation. We conclude that careful multidisciplinary evaluation of climate models, in conjunction with ongoing modeling advances, should form an integral part of utilizing model output. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Southern Ocean Norwegian Institute for Water research: NIVA Open Access Archive (Brage) Southern Ocean Frontiers in Marine Science 4 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Norwegian Institute for Water research: NIVA Open Access Archive (Brage) |
op_collection_id |
ftnorskinstvf |
language |
English |
description |
Increasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problematic. The expertise required to access and interpret output fromclimate and earth systemmodels is hampering progress in utilizing them most effectively to determine the wider implications of climate change. To address this issue, we present a joint approach between climate scientists and ecologists that explores key challenges and opportunities for progress. As an exemplar, our focus is the Southern Ocean, notable for significant change with global implications, and on sea ice, given its crucial role in this dynamic ecosystem. We combined perspectives to evaluate the representation of sea ice in global climate models. With an emphasis on ecologically-relevant criteria (sea ice extent and seasonality) we selected a subset of eight models that reliably reproduce extant sea ice distributions. While the model subset shows a similar mean change to the full ensemble in sea ice extent (approximately 50% decline in winter and 30% decline in summer), there is a marked reduction in the range. This improved the precision of projected future sea ice distributions by approximately one third, and means they are more amenable to ecological interpretation. We conclude that careful multidisciplinary evaluation of climate models, in conjunction with ongoing modeling advances, should form an integral part of utilizing model output. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cavanagh, Rachel D. Murphy, Eugene J. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Turner, John Knowland, Cheryl A. Corney, Stuart P. Smith, Walker O. Waluda, Claire M. Johnston, Nadine M. Bellerby, Richard Constable, Andrew J. Costa, Daniel P. Hofmann, Eileen E. Jackson, Jennifer A. Staniland, Iain J. Wolf-Gladrow, Dieter Xavier, Jose C. |
spellingShingle |
Cavanagh, Rachel D. Murphy, Eugene J. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Turner, John Knowland, Cheryl A. Corney, Stuart P. Smith, Walker O. Waluda, Claire M. Johnston, Nadine M. Bellerby, Richard Constable, Andrew J. Costa, Daniel P. Hofmann, Eileen E. Jackson, Jennifer A. Staniland, Iain J. Wolf-Gladrow, Dieter Xavier, Jose C. A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications |
author_facet |
Cavanagh, Rachel D. Murphy, Eugene J. Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Turner, John Knowland, Cheryl A. Corney, Stuart P. Smith, Walker O. Waluda, Claire M. Johnston, Nadine M. Bellerby, Richard Constable, Andrew J. Costa, Daniel P. Hofmann, Eileen E. Jackson, Jennifer A. Staniland, Iain J. Wolf-Gladrow, Dieter Xavier, Jose C. |
author_sort |
Cavanagh, Rachel D. |
title |
A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications |
title_short |
A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications |
title_full |
A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications |
title_fullStr |
A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications |
title_sort |
synergistic approach for evaluating climate model output for ecological applications |
publisher |
Frontiers Media |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2507064 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2017.00308 |
geographic |
Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean |
genre |
Sea ice Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Sea ice Southern Ocean |
op_source |
12 4 Frontiers in Marine Science |
op_relation |
Natural Environment Research Council: I029943/1 Investigator FCT: 00616/2013 FCT: MARE- UID/MAR/04292/2013 Frontiers in Marine Science. 2017, 4, 12, 308. urn:issn:2296-7745 http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2507064 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2017.00308 cristin:1552740 |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © 2017 Cavanagh, Murphy, Bracegirdle, Turner, Knowland, Corney, Smith,Waluda, Johnston, Bellerby, Constable, Costa, Hofmann, Jackson, Staniland, Wolf-Gladrow, Xavier. |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2017.00308 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Marine Science |
container_volume |
4 |
_version_ |
1766190681950257152 |