Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate
The current generation of Earth system models exhibits large inter-model differences in the simulated climate of the Arctic and subarctic zone, with differences in model structure and parametrizations being one of the main sources of uncertainty. One particularly challenging aspect in modelling is t...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3137596 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023 |
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ftnorce:oai:norceresearch.brage.unit.no:11250/3137596 2024-09-15T18:29:39+00:00 Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate De Vrese, Philipp Georgievski, Goran Gonzalez Rouco, Jesus Fidel Notz, Dirk Stacke, Tobias Steinert, Norman Wilkenskjeld, Stiig Brovkin, Victor 2023 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3137596 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023 eng eng Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft: EXC 2037 Andre: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung : # 03F0834C EC/H2020/951288 The Cryosphere. 2023, 17 (5), 2095-2118. urn:issn:1994-0416 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3137596 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023 cristin:2155327 Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © Author(s) 2023 The Cryosphere 17 5 2095-2118 Modelling uncertainty Jordsystem modell Earth system model VDP::Geofag: 450 VDP::Geosciences: 450 Peer reviewed Journal article 2023 ftnorce https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023 2024-07-07T23:32:14Z The current generation of Earth system models exhibits large inter-model differences in the simulated climate of the Arctic and subarctic zone, with differences in model structure and parametrizations being one of the main sources of uncertainty. One particularly challenging aspect in modelling is the representation of terrestrial processes in permafrost-affected regions, which are often governed by spatial heterogeneity far below the resolution of the models' land surface components. Here, we use the Max Planck Institute (MPI) Earth System Model to investigate how different plausible assumptions for the representation of permafrost hydrology modulate land–atmosphere interactions and how the resulting feedbacks affect not only the regional and global climate, but also our ability to predict whether the high latitudes will become wetter or drier in a warmer future. Focusing on two idealized setups that induce comparatively “wet” or “dry” conditions in regions that are presently affected by permafrost, we find that the parameter settings determine the direction of the 21st-century trend in the simulated soil water content and result in substantial differences in the land–atmosphere exchange of energy and moisture. The latter leads to differences in the simulated cloud cover during spring and summer and thus in the planetary energy uptake. The respective effects are so pronounced that uncertainties in the representation of the Arctic hydrological cycle can help to explain a large fraction of the inter-model spread in regional surface temperatures and precipitation. Furthermore, they affect a range of components of the Earth system as far to the south as the tropics. With both setups being similarly plausible, our findings highlight the need for more observational constraints on the permafrost hydrology to reduce the inter-model spread in Arctic climate projections. Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate ... Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Subarctic The Cryosphere NORCE vitenarkiv (Norwegian Research Centre) The Cryosphere 17 5 2095 2118 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
NORCE vitenarkiv (Norwegian Research Centre) |
op_collection_id |
ftnorce |
language |
English |
topic |
Modelling uncertainty Jordsystem modell Earth system model VDP::Geofag: 450 VDP::Geosciences: 450 |
spellingShingle |
Modelling uncertainty Jordsystem modell Earth system model VDP::Geofag: 450 VDP::Geosciences: 450 De Vrese, Philipp Georgievski, Goran Gonzalez Rouco, Jesus Fidel Notz, Dirk Stacke, Tobias Steinert, Norman Wilkenskjeld, Stiig Brovkin, Victor Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate |
topic_facet |
Modelling uncertainty Jordsystem modell Earth system model VDP::Geofag: 450 VDP::Geosciences: 450 |
description |
The current generation of Earth system models exhibits large inter-model differences in the simulated climate of the Arctic and subarctic zone, with differences in model structure and parametrizations being one of the main sources of uncertainty. One particularly challenging aspect in modelling is the representation of terrestrial processes in permafrost-affected regions, which are often governed by spatial heterogeneity far below the resolution of the models' land surface components. Here, we use the Max Planck Institute (MPI) Earth System Model to investigate how different plausible assumptions for the representation of permafrost hydrology modulate land–atmosphere interactions and how the resulting feedbacks affect not only the regional and global climate, but also our ability to predict whether the high latitudes will become wetter or drier in a warmer future. Focusing on two idealized setups that induce comparatively “wet” or “dry” conditions in regions that are presently affected by permafrost, we find that the parameter settings determine the direction of the 21st-century trend in the simulated soil water content and result in substantial differences in the land–atmosphere exchange of energy and moisture. The latter leads to differences in the simulated cloud cover during spring and summer and thus in the planetary energy uptake. The respective effects are so pronounced that uncertainties in the representation of the Arctic hydrological cycle can help to explain a large fraction of the inter-model spread in regional surface temperatures and precipitation. Furthermore, they affect a range of components of the Earth system as far to the south as the tropics. With both setups being similarly plausible, our findings highlight the need for more observational constraints on the permafrost hydrology to reduce the inter-model spread in Arctic climate projections. Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
De Vrese, Philipp Georgievski, Goran Gonzalez Rouco, Jesus Fidel Notz, Dirk Stacke, Tobias Steinert, Norman Wilkenskjeld, Stiig Brovkin, Victor |
author_facet |
De Vrese, Philipp Georgievski, Goran Gonzalez Rouco, Jesus Fidel Notz, Dirk Stacke, Tobias Steinert, Norman Wilkenskjeld, Stiig Brovkin, Victor |
author_sort |
De Vrese, Philipp |
title |
Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate |
title_short |
Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate |
title_full |
Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate |
title_fullStr |
Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate |
title_sort |
representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated arctic and subarctic climate |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3137596 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023 |
genre |
permafrost Subarctic The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
permafrost Subarctic The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere 17 5 2095-2118 |
op_relation |
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft: EXC 2037 Andre: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung : # 03F0834C EC/H2020/951288 The Cryosphere. 2023, 17 (5), 2095-2118. urn:issn:1994-0416 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3137596 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023 cristin:2155327 |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © Author(s) 2023 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
2095 |
op_container_end_page |
2118 |
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1810471075395403776 |