Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior
Robust detection of anthropogenic climate change is crucial to: (i) improve our understanding of Earth system responses to external forcing, (ii) reduce uncertainty in future climate projections, and (iii) develop efficient mitigation and adaptation plans. Here, we use Earth system model projections...
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ftnorce:oai:norceresearch.brage.unit.no:11250/3061656 2023-05-15T17:30:37+02:00 Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior Tjiputra, Jerry Negrel, Jean Olsen, Are 2023 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3061656 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30159-0 eng eng Norges forskningsråd: 275268 Norges forskningsråd: 318477 Norges forskningsråd: 295046 EC/H2020/820989 EC/H2020/817578 Scientific Reports. 2023, 13:3006 1-14. urn:issn:2045-2322 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3061656 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30159-0 cristin:2129790 Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no Scientific Reports 13:3006 1-14 Journal article Peer reviewed 2023 ftnorce https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30159-0 2023-04-05T22:47:56Z Robust detection of anthropogenic climate change is crucial to: (i) improve our understanding of Earth system responses to external forcing, (ii) reduce uncertainty in future climate projections, and (iii) develop efficient mitigation and adaptation plans. Here, we use Earth system model projections to establish the detection timescales of anthropogenic signals in the global ocean through analyzing temperature, salinity, oxygen, and pH evolution from surface to 2000 m depths. For most variables, anthropogenic changes emerge earlier in the interior ocean than at the surface, due to the lower background variability at depth. Acidification is detectable earliest, followed by warming and oxygen changes in the subsurface tropical Atlantic. Temperature and salinity changes in the subsurface tropical and subtropical North Atlantic are shown to be early indicators for a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Even under mitigated scenarios, inner ocean anthropogenic signals are projected to emerge within the next few decades. This is because they originate from existing surface changes that are now propagating into the interior. In addition to the tropical Atlantic, our study calls for establishment of long-term interior monitoring systems in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic in order to elucidate how spatially heterogeneous anthropogenic signals propagate into the interior and impact marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Southern Ocean NORCE vitenarkiv (Norwegian Research Centre) Southern Ocean Scientific Reports 13 1 |
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English |
description |
Robust detection of anthropogenic climate change is crucial to: (i) improve our understanding of Earth system responses to external forcing, (ii) reduce uncertainty in future climate projections, and (iii) develop efficient mitigation and adaptation plans. Here, we use Earth system model projections to establish the detection timescales of anthropogenic signals in the global ocean through analyzing temperature, salinity, oxygen, and pH evolution from surface to 2000 m depths. For most variables, anthropogenic changes emerge earlier in the interior ocean than at the surface, due to the lower background variability at depth. Acidification is detectable earliest, followed by warming and oxygen changes in the subsurface tropical Atlantic. Temperature and salinity changes in the subsurface tropical and subtropical North Atlantic are shown to be early indicators for a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Even under mitigated scenarios, inner ocean anthropogenic signals are projected to emerge within the next few decades. This is because they originate from existing surface changes that are now propagating into the interior. In addition to the tropical Atlantic, our study calls for establishment of long-term interior monitoring systems in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic in order to elucidate how spatially heterogeneous anthropogenic signals propagate into the interior and impact marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tjiputra, Jerry Negrel, Jean Olsen, Are |
spellingShingle |
Tjiputra, Jerry Negrel, Jean Olsen, Are Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior |
author_facet |
Tjiputra, Jerry Negrel, Jean Olsen, Are |
author_sort |
Tjiputra, Jerry |
title |
Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior |
title_short |
Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior |
title_full |
Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior |
title_fullStr |
Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior |
title_full_unstemmed |
Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior |
title_sort |
early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3061656 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30159-0 |
geographic |
Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean |
genre |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Scientific Reports 13:3006 1-14 |
op_relation |
Norges forskningsråd: 275268 Norges forskningsråd: 318477 Norges forskningsråd: 295046 EC/H2020/820989 EC/H2020/817578 Scientific Reports. 2023, 13:3006 1-14. urn:issn:2045-2322 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3061656 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30159-0 cristin:2129790 |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30159-0 |
container_title |
Scientific Reports |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766127477033271296 |