A high-end estimate of sea-level rise for practitioners
Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, des...
Published in: | Earth's Future |
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3031321 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002751 |
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ftnorce:oai:norceresearch.brage.unit.no:11250/3031321 2023-05-15T13:37:33+02:00 A high-end estimate of sea-level rise for practitioners van de Wal, Roderik S.W. Nicholls, Robert J. Behar, David McInnes, K. Stammer, Detlef Lowe, Jason A. Church, John A. DeConto, Robert M. Fettweis, Xavier Goelzer, Heiko Haasnoot, M. Haigh, I. Hinkel, Jochen Horton, Ben James, T.S. Jenkins, Adrian LeCozannet, G. Levermann, Anders Lipscomb, William H. Marzeion, Ben Pattyn, Frank Payne, Anthony J. Pfeffer, Ted Price, S. Seroussi, Hélène Sun, Sainan Veatch, W. White, K. 2022 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3031321 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002751 eng eng Sigma2: NS8085K Norges forskningsråd: 270061 Sigma2: NS9560K Sigma2: NS9252K Sigma2: NS8006K Norges forskningsråd: 324639 Sigma2: NS5011K Norges forskningsråd: 295046 Earth's Future. 2022, 10 (11), . urn:issn:2328-4277 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3031321 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002751 cristin:2068246 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no © The Authors 2022 CC-BY-NC-ND Earth's Future 10 11 24 Journal article Peer reviewed 2022 ftnorce https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002751 2022-11-16T23:45:16Z Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Ice Shelf NORCE vitenarkiv (Norwegian Research Centre) Earth's Future 10 11 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
NORCE vitenarkiv (Norwegian Research Centre) |
op_collection_id |
ftnorce |
language |
English |
description |
Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
van de Wal, Roderik S.W. Nicholls, Robert J. Behar, David McInnes, K. Stammer, Detlef Lowe, Jason A. Church, John A. DeConto, Robert M. Fettweis, Xavier Goelzer, Heiko Haasnoot, M. Haigh, I. Hinkel, Jochen Horton, Ben James, T.S. Jenkins, Adrian LeCozannet, G. Levermann, Anders Lipscomb, William H. Marzeion, Ben Pattyn, Frank Payne, Anthony J. Pfeffer, Ted Price, S. Seroussi, Hélène Sun, Sainan Veatch, W. White, K. |
spellingShingle |
van de Wal, Roderik S.W. Nicholls, Robert J. Behar, David McInnes, K. Stammer, Detlef Lowe, Jason A. Church, John A. DeConto, Robert M. Fettweis, Xavier Goelzer, Heiko Haasnoot, M. Haigh, I. Hinkel, Jochen Horton, Ben James, T.S. Jenkins, Adrian LeCozannet, G. Levermann, Anders Lipscomb, William H. Marzeion, Ben Pattyn, Frank Payne, Anthony J. Pfeffer, Ted Price, S. Seroussi, Hélène Sun, Sainan Veatch, W. White, K. A high-end estimate of sea-level rise for practitioners |
author_facet |
van de Wal, Roderik S.W. Nicholls, Robert J. Behar, David McInnes, K. Stammer, Detlef Lowe, Jason A. Church, John A. DeConto, Robert M. Fettweis, Xavier Goelzer, Heiko Haasnoot, M. Haigh, I. Hinkel, Jochen Horton, Ben James, T.S. Jenkins, Adrian LeCozannet, G. Levermann, Anders Lipscomb, William H. Marzeion, Ben Pattyn, Frank Payne, Anthony J. Pfeffer, Ted Price, S. Seroussi, Hélène Sun, Sainan Veatch, W. White, K. |
author_sort |
van de Wal, Roderik S.W. |
title |
A high-end estimate of sea-level rise for practitioners |
title_short |
A high-end estimate of sea-level rise for practitioners |
title_full |
A high-end estimate of sea-level rise for practitioners |
title_fullStr |
A high-end estimate of sea-level rise for practitioners |
title_full_unstemmed |
A high-end estimate of sea-level rise for practitioners |
title_sort |
high-end estimate of sea-level rise for practitioners |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3031321 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002751 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Ice Shelf |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Ice Shelf |
op_source |
Earth's Future 10 11 24 |
op_relation |
Sigma2: NS8085K Norges forskningsråd: 270061 Sigma2: NS9560K Sigma2: NS9252K Sigma2: NS8006K Norges forskningsråd: 324639 Sigma2: NS5011K Norges forskningsråd: 295046 Earth's Future. 2022, 10 (11), . urn:issn:2328-4277 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3031321 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002751 cristin:2068246 |
op_rights |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no © The Authors 2022 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC-ND |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002751 |
container_title |
Earth's Future |
container_volume |
10 |
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11 |
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1766093875427934208 |