Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S
The Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S is a major sink of excess heat and anthropogenic carbon, but model projections of these sinks remain highly uncertain. Reducing such uncertainties is required to effectively guide the development of climate mitigation policies for meeting the ambitious climat...
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ftnorce:oai:norceresearch.brage.unit.no:11250/3020048 2023-05-15T18:24:53+02:00 Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S Bourgeois, Timothée Goris, Nadine Schwinger, Jörg Tjiputra, Jerry 2022 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3020048 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-27979-5 eng eng EC/H2020/820989 Norges forskningsråd: 275268 Norges forskningsråd: 295046 Norges forskningsråd: 318477 urn:issn:2041-1723 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3020048 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-27979-5 cristin:1982721 Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © The Authors, 2022 CC-BY Nature Communications 13 Peer reviewed Journal article 2022 ftnorce https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-27979-5 2022-10-13T05:50:32Z The Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S is a major sink of excess heat and anthropogenic carbon, but model projections of these sinks remain highly uncertain. Reducing such uncertainties is required to effectively guide the development of climate mitigation policies for meeting the ambitious climate targets of the Paris Agreement. Here, we show that the large spread in the projections of future excess heat uptake efficiency and cumulative anthropogenic carbon uptake in this region are strongly linked to the models’ contemporary stratification. This relationship is robust across two generations of Earth system models and is used to reduce the uncertainty of future estimates of the cumulative anthropogenic carbon uptake by up to 53% and the excess heat uptake efficiency by 28%. Our results highlight that, for this region, an improved representation of stratification in Earth system models is key to constrain future carbon budgets and climate change projections. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Southern Ocean NORCE vitenarkiv (Norwegian Research Centre) Southern Ocean Nature Communications 13 1 |
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English |
description |
The Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S is a major sink of excess heat and anthropogenic carbon, but model projections of these sinks remain highly uncertain. Reducing such uncertainties is required to effectively guide the development of climate mitigation policies for meeting the ambitious climate targets of the Paris Agreement. Here, we show that the large spread in the projections of future excess heat uptake efficiency and cumulative anthropogenic carbon uptake in this region are strongly linked to the models’ contemporary stratification. This relationship is robust across two generations of Earth system models and is used to reduce the uncertainty of future estimates of the cumulative anthropogenic carbon uptake by up to 53% and the excess heat uptake efficiency by 28%. Our results highlight that, for this region, an improved representation of stratification in Earth system models is key to constrain future carbon budgets and climate change projections. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bourgeois, Timothée Goris, Nadine Schwinger, Jörg Tjiputra, Jerry |
spellingShingle |
Bourgeois, Timothée Goris, Nadine Schwinger, Jörg Tjiputra, Jerry Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S |
author_facet |
Bourgeois, Timothée Goris, Nadine Schwinger, Jörg Tjiputra, Jerry |
author_sort |
Bourgeois, Timothée |
title |
Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S |
title_short |
Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S |
title_full |
Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S |
title_fullStr |
Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S |
title_sort |
stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the southern ocean between 30°s and 55°s |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3020048 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-27979-5 |
geographic |
Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean |
genre |
Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Nature Communications 13 |
op_relation |
EC/H2020/820989 Norges forskningsråd: 275268 Norges forskningsråd: 295046 Norges forskningsråd: 318477 urn:issn:2041-1723 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3020048 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-27979-5 cristin:1982721 |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © The Authors, 2022 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-27979-5 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766205892730028032 |