Future changes in rain-on-snow events over Norway
Rain-on-snow (ROS) events occur primarily in cold climates such as high latitudes and high elevations where they pose a considerable threat to nature and society. The frequency and intensity of ROS events are expected to change in the future, but little is known about how they will change in the nea...
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ftnorce:oai:norceresearch.brage.unit.no:11250/3020047 2023-05-15T17:34:23+02:00 Future changes in rain-on-snow events over Norway Mooney, Priscilla A. Li, Lu 2021 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3020047 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfdeb eng eng Sigma2: NN9486K Norges forskningsråd: 268243 Sigma2: NS9599K Sigma2: NN9280K Environmental Research Letters. 2021, 16 (6), 1-10. urn:issn:1748-9326 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3020047 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfdeb cristin:1912362 Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © 2021 The Authors CC-BY Environmental Research Letters 16 6 1-10 Peer reviewed Journal article 2021 ftnorce https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfdeb 2022-10-13T05:50:38Z Rain-on-snow (ROS) events occur primarily in cold climates such as high latitudes and high elevations where they pose a considerable threat to nature and society. The frequency and intensity of ROS events are expected to change in the future, but little is known about how they will change in the near future (mid-century) and their link to hydrological extremes (e.g. 95% high flows). Here we use kilometre-scale regional climate simulations over Norway, a ROS ‘hot spot’, to determine potential changes in ROS frequency and intensity in the middle of the century under RCP8.5. Analysis shows that ROS will intensify in the future and ROS frequency will increase at high elevations and occur less frequently at lower elevations. Furthermore, high-flows that coincide with ROS events are expected to increase in winter and autumn. In general, this study shows that ROS changes in winter and autumn are related to changes in rain while ROS changes in spring and summer are related to changes in the snowpack. Since rainfall in Norway is dominated by large scale processes in autumn and winter (e.g. North Atlantic storm tracks), it is likely that future changes in ROS climatology in autumn and winter are related to changes in the large scale atmospheric system. This contrasts with spring and summer when local-scale processes drive snowmelt and hence future changes to ROS in those seasons. Future changes in rain-on-snow events over Norway publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic NORCE vitenarkiv (Norwegian Research Centre) Norway Environmental Research Letters 16 6 064039 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
NORCE vitenarkiv (Norwegian Research Centre) |
op_collection_id |
ftnorce |
language |
English |
description |
Rain-on-snow (ROS) events occur primarily in cold climates such as high latitudes and high elevations where they pose a considerable threat to nature and society. The frequency and intensity of ROS events are expected to change in the future, but little is known about how they will change in the near future (mid-century) and their link to hydrological extremes (e.g. 95% high flows). Here we use kilometre-scale regional climate simulations over Norway, a ROS ‘hot spot’, to determine potential changes in ROS frequency and intensity in the middle of the century under RCP8.5. Analysis shows that ROS will intensify in the future and ROS frequency will increase at high elevations and occur less frequently at lower elevations. Furthermore, high-flows that coincide with ROS events are expected to increase in winter and autumn. In general, this study shows that ROS changes in winter and autumn are related to changes in rain while ROS changes in spring and summer are related to changes in the snowpack. Since rainfall in Norway is dominated by large scale processes in autumn and winter (e.g. North Atlantic storm tracks), it is likely that future changes in ROS climatology in autumn and winter are related to changes in the large scale atmospheric system. This contrasts with spring and summer when local-scale processes drive snowmelt and hence future changes to ROS in those seasons. Future changes in rain-on-snow events over Norway publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mooney, Priscilla A. Li, Lu |
spellingShingle |
Mooney, Priscilla A. Li, Lu Future changes in rain-on-snow events over Norway |
author_facet |
Mooney, Priscilla A. Li, Lu |
author_sort |
Mooney, Priscilla A. |
title |
Future changes in rain-on-snow events over Norway |
title_short |
Future changes in rain-on-snow events over Norway |
title_full |
Future changes in rain-on-snow events over Norway |
title_fullStr |
Future changes in rain-on-snow events over Norway |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future changes in rain-on-snow events over Norway |
title_sort |
future changes in rain-on-snow events over norway |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3020047 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfdeb |
geographic |
Norway |
geographic_facet |
Norway |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters 16 6 1-10 |
op_relation |
Sigma2: NN9486K Norges forskningsråd: 268243 Sigma2: NS9599K Sigma2: NN9280K Environmental Research Letters. 2021, 16 (6), 1-10. urn:issn:1748-9326 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3020047 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfdeb cristin:1912362 |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © 2021 The Authors |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfdeb |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
064039 |
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1766133198806319104 |