Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold air outbreaks over the Barents Sea
Marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) create conditions for hazardous maritime mesocyclones (polar lows) posing risks to marine infrastructure. For marine management, skilful predictions of MCAOs would be highly beneficial. For this reason, we investigate (i) the ability of a seasonal prediction system...
Published in: | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2987205 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038 |
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ftnorce:oai:norceresearch.brage.unit.no:11250/2987205 2024-06-23T07:51:38+00:00 Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold air outbreaks over the Barents Sea Polkova, Iuliia Afargan-Gertsman, Hilla Domeisen, Daniela King, Martin Peter Ruggieri, Paolo Athanasiadis, Panos J. Dobrynin, Mikhail Øvin, Aarnes Kretschmer, Marlene Baehr, Johanna 2021 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2987205 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038 eng eng https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.4038 EC/H2020/727852 urn:issn:0035-9009 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2987205 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038 cristin:1908217 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no © The Authors, 2021 Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Peer reviewed Journal article 2021 ftnorce https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038 2024-05-27T03:02:36Z Marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) create conditions for hazardous maritime mesocyclones (polar lows) posing risks to marine infrastructure. For marine management, skilful predictions of MCAOs would be highly beneficial. For this reason, we investigate (i) the ability of a seasonal prediction system to predict MCAOs and (ii) the possibilities to improve predictions through large‐scale causal drivers. Our results show that the seasonal ensemble predictions have high prediction skill for MCAOs over the Nordic Seas for about 20 days starting from November initial conditions. To study causal drivers of MCAOs, we utilize a causal effect network approach applied to the atmospheric reanalysis ERA‐Interim and identify local sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns over Scandinavia as valuable predictors. Prediction skill for MCAOs is further improved up to 40 days including MCAO predictors in the analysis. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Barents Sea Nordic Seas NORCE vitenarkiv (Norwegian Research Centre) Barents Sea Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 147 738 2638 2656 |
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Open Polar |
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NORCE vitenarkiv (Norwegian Research Centre) |
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ftnorce |
language |
English |
description |
Marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) create conditions for hazardous maritime mesocyclones (polar lows) posing risks to marine infrastructure. For marine management, skilful predictions of MCAOs would be highly beneficial. For this reason, we investigate (i) the ability of a seasonal prediction system to predict MCAOs and (ii) the possibilities to improve predictions through large‐scale causal drivers. Our results show that the seasonal ensemble predictions have high prediction skill for MCAOs over the Nordic Seas for about 20 days starting from November initial conditions. To study causal drivers of MCAOs, we utilize a causal effect network approach applied to the atmospheric reanalysis ERA‐Interim and identify local sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns over Scandinavia as valuable predictors. Prediction skill for MCAOs is further improved up to 40 days including MCAO predictors in the analysis. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Polkova, Iuliia Afargan-Gertsman, Hilla Domeisen, Daniela King, Martin Peter Ruggieri, Paolo Athanasiadis, Panos J. Dobrynin, Mikhail Øvin, Aarnes Kretschmer, Marlene Baehr, Johanna |
spellingShingle |
Polkova, Iuliia Afargan-Gertsman, Hilla Domeisen, Daniela King, Martin Peter Ruggieri, Paolo Athanasiadis, Panos J. Dobrynin, Mikhail Øvin, Aarnes Kretschmer, Marlene Baehr, Johanna Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold air outbreaks over the Barents Sea |
author_facet |
Polkova, Iuliia Afargan-Gertsman, Hilla Domeisen, Daniela King, Martin Peter Ruggieri, Paolo Athanasiadis, Panos J. Dobrynin, Mikhail Øvin, Aarnes Kretschmer, Marlene Baehr, Johanna |
author_sort |
Polkova, Iuliia |
title |
Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold air outbreaks over the Barents Sea |
title_short |
Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold air outbreaks over the Barents Sea |
title_full |
Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold air outbreaks over the Barents Sea |
title_fullStr |
Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold air outbreaks over the Barents Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold air outbreaks over the Barents Sea |
title_sort |
predictors and prediction skill for marine cold air outbreaks over the barents sea |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2987205 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038 |
geographic |
Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Barents Sea |
genre |
Barents Sea Nordic Seas |
genre_facet |
Barents Sea Nordic Seas |
op_source |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
op_relation |
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.4038 EC/H2020/727852 urn:issn:0035-9009 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2987205 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038 cristin:1908217 |
op_rights |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no © The Authors, 2021 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4038 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
147 |
container_issue |
738 |
container_start_page |
2638 |
op_container_end_page |
2656 |
_version_ |
1802642749972807680 |